Dr. David Berri: Rockets still above average

[Don Draper]

Interesting article from the Wages of Wins Journal. A lot of statistical based evidence.

With the exception of Aaron Brooks, these players were above average before 2008-09. This suggests that these players will be above average in 2009-10. If that happens, the Rockets have a good chance of being an above average team. That means the Western Conference might have as many as ten teams contending for eight playoff spots.

http://dberri.wordpress.com/2009/08/13/does-houston-really-have-that-big-of-a-problem/

[rocketsballin]

rockets above average if tmac plays 70+ games

[moofs]

I'm expecting:
- Scola, Ariza, and Brooks' scoring averages all go up
- Brooks likely does gain a serious reputation with his scoring and our record and may be traded while his value is soaring high
- We win 44 games with a standard deviation of 4 games.


Liked this quote:

This is the test, I guess. People say wouldn’t it be neat to gather an entire team of WoW favorites who aren’t necessarily scorers and see if they can hold up. I think this is as close to that idea that we might get. It will be interesting to see.

Also “Houston is now a pale imitation of the team that took the Lakers to seven games in the Western Conference semifinals.” The team that took the Lakers to seven games didn’t have Yao for four games that series and no McGrady at all. So that writer is missing something.

[moofs]

also interested to see the results of this quote

This illustrates the biggest problem with WoW – assuming win score will remain constant regardless of the amount of scoring in the line up.

Will these non-scorers continue to be productive when they’re forced to manufacture shots they are not equipped to take?

It’s much easier for Battier, Scola, etc. to be productive when other guys are taking the lion’s share of the shots. If the offensive efficiency sputters without scoring in the line up, though, these individual players will see their win scores plummet because they will be forced to take bad shots and “use” possessions they wouldn’t otherwise use.