Pistons fans opinions on the Wiz

[Kanyewest]

To be fair, the Detroit Pistons were considered the superior team before the Chauncey Billlups trade.

Most of the primary Pistons players (Rip, Wallace, Dice, Billups) had that expiration date approaching. I don't blame the Pistons for trying to look ahead, but Billups still has it, and I'd feel a lot better about their prospects this year if he was still, there. CV and Gordon might be overpaid, but Dumars had to do something to try and stay competitive, and maybe if the players don't gel, the salaries haven't made moving them in trades impossible.

I understand why Detroit did the trade. I'm just saying is that it's understandable why the experts from ESPN or anyone for that matter had Detroit ahead of the Magic. They had a better record the year before and took care of them easily in the playoffs.

The Pistons could have beaten the Magic had they kept Billups. The real question is that could they defeat Cleveland, but maybe they didn't have to if Orlando took care of them. WIth KG out, Boston was no longer the same team. There was a real possibility that Detroit could have made it to the finals; something that wasn't visible before the season started.

But as others have said, a championship didn't look realistic after they were easily handled by the Celtics, and I guess Dumars didn't consider the possibility of one of the Celtics big 3 getting injured. Still, I have to wonder if what their building is even a playoff team. Time will tell.

[doclinkin]

Well crap, a cordial well-reasoned conversation with a Conference opponent. Or their fans anyway. I was hoping for insults and bad grammar.

My other question is how exactly Arenas is gonna distribute the ball to all those scorers. I find it curious that Wiz fans would knock Detroit for having Stuckey, "a SG" at the point, when Arenas himself is a shoot 1st, shoot 2nd guard. Obviously a much better one, but he's still clearly a scoring guard. In fact Stuckey averaged better than 5 apg last year as a starter, which isn't that far off from Arenas despite Arenas having a much higher usage rating.

I'm the guy who wanted Stuckey for the Wiz, in part because of his ability to rack assists on a squad with zero other NBA talents. Here he would have been Gil-insurance and I envisioned him in the same role that L-Boogie had when he and Gilbert were running upcourt together -- opponents were never sure who to guard since either one could handle and attack the lane. A fine fit for the Wiz' style at the time. I 'spect Stuckey will round out eventually as a fine attacking point in the Tony Parker mode. He needs a bit of range on his jumper to force opponents to guard him tight and space the floor for the rest of the squad, but added range is a skill NBAers have been shown to develop. Easier than improving FT% for instance. Repetition and legs, no need for a sports psychologist or a hypnotist.

That said, the 'shoot first, shoot second' Gilbert has averaged 7 assists in a system that expected players to break down opponents with individual skill. He's played next to three separate 20-pt scorers (Larry, 'Twan, Caron) with no complaints about his role. With Gilbert on court no-handle DeShawn Stevenson hit 50% from the floor. With Gilbert off-court, DeShawn hit 19% in the playoffs and crapped the bed completely. When Gilbert came back this year, he posted a 20-1 assist to TO ratio in two games. 10 dimes per game in limited minutes, even while unable to shoot, or break down opponents in the lane. One turnover in two games.

I like a well-reasoned argument, but especially when it's based on intimate knowledge of your own players, more than the same old trite re-hash of errant conventional wisdom about another squad's stalwart. Gilbert draws attention to his own game, but his positive effect on the team around him is an under-recognized aspect of his value. He scored here because the team needed his scoring. Games when he wasn't scoring we had to rely on offense from Jarvis Hayes, Kwame Brown, Juan Dixon (to name a few more one-time ex-Wiz/now post-neo-Pistons). Waiting on Arvis Hayes to find his 'J' is a recipe for hair-pulling and cat-kicking. But Gil did get the ball to the hands of players who could actually make a bucket. Ask Caron, ask Jamison.

Pretty sure the same Gil that racked 7asts per game sharing the court with offensive spazzes like Jared Jeffries (playing shooting guard no less) and Mike Ruffin (nuff said)-- pretty sure he could could find a way to build and maintain the average when he can loft an alley oop to a funnel over the basket like Javale McGee. Or when he has 40% 3fg options outside for his drive and kick (Mike Miller, Nick Young, Randy Foye).

I like the Pistons just fine. A trio of UConn Huskies is generally a good thing on an NBA squad (now pick up Rudy Gay, Caron, Ray Allen...). Tayshaun Prince is either vastly underrated or vastly ovgerrated depending on whom you're talking to. Kwame is an excellent one-on-one big-man defender even if his team game will always be a work in progress.

But if you're basing your critique of the Wiz on the concept that Gilbert can't play with others, feel free to check Larry Hughes' post-Wiz career, and look at Caron/Jamison's first-time all-star appearances next to him.

As for injuries. True, Detroit has one of the league's best individual trainers. We have Dr Nick from the Simpsons. The prayer is that since we have the deepest team since... ever? Then maybe we can weather the usual DC kasualty karma. We've played the starters heavy minutes because we had nothing behind them (see Jarvis, etc-- above) but that opened us up for fatigue-based accidents and erosion. Flip has kept a short bench in the past, but aside from the front court, he's pretty deep in solid veteran players, with some pretty talented (youngsters):

PG-- Gil, Foye, (Crittenton), DeShawn, James
SG-- Miller, Foye, (Nick Young), DeShawn, Caron
SF -- Caron, Miller, Jamison, (Dom McGuire), (Nick Young)
PF-- Jamison, (Blatche), Oberto, (McGuire), (McGee)
C-- Haywood, (Blatche), Oberto, (McGee)

Hopefully McGee doesn't break Big 'Wood's wrist in training camp again... [pray for mercy]. And Jamison is his usual 80+ game ironman self, or else the youngsters show as much accomplishment as talent this year. Never know, at some point those talented young players have to become veterans and figure out how to play-- right, Amir Johnson?

[Cowology]

Yeah, I can understand Detroit being rated higher than Orlando heading into the season. It made sense.

T be honest though I think Orlando would have been the better team whether we made the Chauncey trade or not. We had a lot of problems last season.

But the NBA is all about matchups and for whatever reason Detroit had Orlandos number. We were the one team they desperately wanted to avoid in a 3/6 matchup. Even last year I think we probably could have played them tighter than Cleveland did despite being a clearly inferior team. In fact of the 7 other playoff teams in the East Orlando is the only one I would have actually liked our chances against and they went all the way to the Finals. Weird, huh?

[Cowology]

That said, the 'shoot first, shoot second' Gilbert has averaged 7 assists in a system that expected players to break down opponents with individual skill. He's played next to three separate 20-pt scorers (Larry, 'Twan, Caron) with no complaints about his role. With Gilbert on court no-handle DeShawn Stevenson hit 50% from the floor. With Gilbert off-court, DeShawn hit 19% in the playoffs and crapped the bed completely. When Gilbert came back this year, he posted a 20-1 assist to TO ratio in two games. 10 dimes per game in limited minutes, even while unable to shoot, or break down opponents in the lane. One turnover in two games.

Hm...you've repeated this 7 apg thing several times...but I'm looking right at his stats and unless I'm missing something the most he ever averaged in his career was 6.3 and that was his 2nd season in GS. He did record 6.0 apg twice while with the Wiz and he has a career average of 5.5 apg.

I'd also point out that in the 2 years he averaged 6.0 apg he played 39.8 and 42.3 mpg with a pretty high usage rating. Just for the sake of comparison, and admitting this is kind of a flawed method that breaks down to 6.8 and 7.2 assists per 48 minutes as a 5th and 6th year starter. Last year as a 2nd year player and 1st year starter Stuckey averaged 7.2 assists per 48 minutes while handling the ball substantially less.

What I'm getting at is that considering how many minutes Arenas played, and how often he had the ball in his hands that 6 apg is really not that great. It pretty much does support the notion that he really is kind of a score 1st, score 2nd pg. That in and of itself isn't necessarily a bad thing, particularly if the player is an efficient scorer. But it does make me wonder how he's gonna distribute the ball.

As I noted before; the last time Arenas was healthy Butler was a 2nd option. His shots might not be all that different, but he got significantly more touches with the offense largely running through him. After 2 years of being the man I just question how he's going to react to having to once again defer to Arenas. It's gonna take a sacrifice of ego on both guys part to make this work, imo.

Again, not saying it can't work. But I am skeptical and I'd like to see it play out a bit before I hop on any bandwagons. It's a different dynamic than it was the last time these guys really played together, and 2 games last season isn't enough to change my mind.

My respect for Arenas would grow tenfold if he actually went from being a 29 & 6 player to a 23 & 8 one.

[doclinkin]

Hm...you've repeated this 7 apg thing several times...but I'm looking right at his stats and unless I'm missing something the most he ever averaged in his career was 6.3 and that was his 2nd season in GS. He did record 6.0 apg twice while with the Wiz and he has a career average of 5.5 apg.

I'd also point out that in the 2 years he averaged 6.0 apg he played 39.8 and 42.3 mpg with a pretty high usage rating. Just for the sake of comparison, and admitting this is kind of a flawed method that breaks down to 6.8 and 7.2 assists per 48 minutes as a 5th and 6th year starter. Last year as a 2nd year player and 1st year starter Stuckey averaged 7.2 assists per 48 minutes while handling the ball substantially less.

What I'm getting at is that considering how many minutes Arenas played, and how often he had the ball in his hands that 6 apg is really not that great. It pretty much does support the notion that he really is kind of a score 1st, score 2nd pg. That in and of itself isn't necessarily a bad thing, particularly if the player is an efficient scorer. But it does make me wonder how he's gonna distribute the ball.

As I noted before; the last time Arenas was healthy Butler was a 2nd option. His shots might not be all that different, but he got significantly more touches with the offense largely running through him. After 2 years of being the man I just question how he's going to react to having to once again defer to Arenas. It's gonna take a sacrifice of ego on both guys part to make this work, imo.

Again, not saying it can't work. But I am skeptical and I'd like to see it play out a bit before I hop on any bandwagons. It's a different dynamic than it was the last time these guys really played together, and 2 games last season isn't enough to change my mind.

Butler has been 2nd or 3rd option his whole career (DWade, Kobe, Gil) -- and he was the second option even with Gilbert out. In fact most years Jamison gets more touches, in part because Caron is an unselfish player in his own right. In fact his usage rate didn't really fluctuate with Gilbert out, increasing by under 2%. That's his game --occasionally to his detriment-- deferring to guys who lack the chops, trying to get them involved. That's been his MO and metier since Uconn, playing as a point forward. Or do you want to assert that Caron too is a shoot-first guy as well, therefore he and Gil couldn't possibly mesh. I'd happily defer to your greater knowledge since I've only been following the guy since he was a UConn recruit at Maine Central Academy. Caron has no problem being a consummate offensive facilitator, glue guy, team player. That's what makes him good.

Offensive +/- ratings shows the team scores more efficiently when a healthy Gilbert is on the floor. More importantly player-pairs regressions show that Caron and Antawn score more efficiently when Gilbert is on the floor. There's an implicit sneer in the usage rate cite, though I dunno who'd suggest that Dwyane Wade is a selfish player, and he regularly posts an ungodly usage rate, ditto Joe Johnson, Chris Paul... Gilbert just happens to also be able to run with two (three counting Larry) 20+ ppg scorers while posting that high rate. Must be a fluke...

And again you can stare at the statistics but you're missing the narrative. The 'different dynamic' that will come into play this year primarily lies in coaching: Flip runs a system that emphasizes assists -whereas- Eddie Jordan's system took advantage of designed mismatches following player motion (not ball motion, more dribble hand-offs than passes-- to reduce TO options).

You're right about the *6* ast per game, slip of the typo. Most years Gil hovered for a while at 7 per game until Caron went down and the scoring options dropped off, Gil's FGA's required an uptick to keep the team in the hunt. But the 7 ast number sorta seared into the memory and stuck since that what he was running when the squad was healthy.

With more skilled scoring options at the end of the pass, and a coach who prefers to move the ball as well as the players, I expect individual scoring totals to drop off somewhat even while team overall assists rise. But since Flip prefers a single ball handler to initiate the offense I wouldn't be surprised if Gil's assist numbers climb as well. Players will get touches since that's what the system is designed to do. Gil has said he expects to play more of a traditional point guard role, he and Flip have been in near daily contact discussing team concepts. But if he's still a highly efficient scorer with the ball in his hands, he may yet have leeway to call his own number. Hasn't hurt the team so far.

Now it's an open question which players adapt and quickly fit the system well, but we have willing passers in players like Caron, Mike Miller, Gilbert, Dom McGuire, Andray Blatche, the concern for the Wizards (like the Piston's new personnel) is what alignment of players actually defends well while preserving scoring. Which players can intuitively grasp the zone scheme and apply it to game situations. And that of course will be a work in progress. On the other hand the benefit of depth and talent allows the team to mix and match until Flip's content that he has tinkered enough.

As for overall record, doesn't matter to me as much as late-season play. The team will have a stretch of time experimenting and finding the mesh that works best. But considering that players who run next to Gilbert say he's their best chance of winning, and considering they tend to also score well and efficiently, I have no problem imagining that the squad will find a way to spread the wealth and in doing so, win.

Comparing Detroit to DC I'd give the slight edge in talent to DC, but that's to be expected, this is a DC board. But where the team has the significant edge is successful coaching experience. Track record of the coaches. I'd trust Flip to find a good mix of players and keep them performing at a high level, we've got a squad familiar with each other. You can doubt perhaps that Wiz teammates will play well together, maybe pray they don't, but we've seen them play together well, no need to guess, whereas your squad is almost entirely patchwork and guesswork. We've actually seen this crew in action-- when last all were healthy-- and since that point we've merely upgraded our bench, from the suits on down.

You? More question marks than confidence. I like the depth of scoring options, but you have no idea who all plays well together-- without Chauncey, without Sheed. And like the Wiz you have no real idea how you'll field a defensively complete line-up.

[doclinkin]

But sure if you want to compare Gilbert's selfish usage to other players with similar rates, feel free to check this list:

http://tinyurl.com/usageastsbyefg

Terrible company there: Tony Parker, Sam Cassell, DWade, Chris Paul, Brandon Roy. All terribly selfish players-- 'shoot first' guys the lot of 'em...

(Okay Mike James, though, maybe he helps your point).

[montestewart]

To be fair, the Detroit Pistons were considered the superior team before the Chauncey Billlups trade.

Most of the primary Pistons players (Rip, Wallace, Dice, Billups) had that expiration date approaching. I don't blame the Pistons for trying to look ahead, but Billups still has it, and I'd feel a lot better about their prospects this year if he was still, there. CV and Gordon might be overpaid, but Dumars had to do something to try and stay competitive, and maybe if the players don't gel, the salaries haven't made moving them in trades impossible.

I (and several other Pistons fans) had been advocating breaking up the team for about 2-2.5 years prior to the Chauncey trade. Dumars waited to long to pull the trigger. That said I was 100% on board with the Chauncey trade and I still defend it.

As much as Chauncey thrived in Denver people tend to forget that he'd become complacent in Detroit. He was a BIG part of that "we can turn it on" attitude. And let's not forget that he got out played by the likes of Jason Williams, Rajon Rondo & Boobie Gibson in 3 consecutive ECF. He, along with Sheed were also our oldest players and Billups happened to play the same position as our best young player. It made sense to make a move, and trading him for AI did get us a ton of cap space.

I don't have any problems with trading Chauncey for cap space. We needed to rebuild. The problem is what we did with that cap space. Instead of going after a defensive anchor like Chandler or Okafor we signed Ben Gordon to be Rips backup. We had all sort of hoped that meant Joe had a deal in the works that would move Rip for a bigman...but that clearly has not happened and now it looks as though our roster is pretty much set for training camp.

I understand the need to break up the team and look to the future. Regardless, I see most teams only a few times before the playoffs, so Pistons fans would surely see many things about their team that I would never notice.

The comment about Billups was more focused on thinking Billups/Stuckey/Gordon would look better this year than Stuckey/Gordon/Hamilton. The comments about CV and Gordon being overpriced were more about current needs and flexibility for further impact moves over the next year. CV’s contract alone doesn’t seem like that much, and what can I say, after watching the Wizards commit $160 million on an older player and an injured player (as much as I like their games when they're on)?

Prince and/or Hamilton in trade would seem to be the next step, and I heard a few rumors in the offseason. There was one about Hamilton for Boozer, was that real or just speculation?

[Cowology]

But sure if you want to compare Gilbert's selfish usage to other players with similar rates, feel free to check this list:

http://tinyurl.com/usageastsbyefg

Terrible company there: Tony Parker, Sam Cassell, DWade, Chris Paul, Brandon Roy. All terribly selfish players-- 'shoot first' guys the lot of 'em...

(Okay Mike James, though, maybe he helps your point).

Not exactly sure what point you are trying to make. With the exception of Parker, every player on that list with a higher usage rating is either a SG or SF and most of them averaged more assists. If you're suggesting he passes well for a SG then I'd agree. But even guys like Steve Francis, Baron Davis & Stephon Marbury averaged more assists from the point.

[Brenice]

Why do you want Gil to set up Michael Ruffin, Etan, Haywood of 3 years ago, Jarvis, and any of the other numerous selfcheck players on the roster in the past? They blew layups. Easy layups. Repeatedly blew layups. It was like watching the WNBA. His Big 3mates had career years with him. Same for DeShawn. I didnt know the offense was the problem. Offensively, they were consistently playing 3 on 5.

As for Caron wanting to be a Robin to Gil's Batman, Caron know's he is not a Batman. Jamison too. Don't make out Caron to be better than he is at Gil's expense.

Also, you go on and overrate Cleveland, Boston, and Orlando. Yes Washington was a 19 win team. That is a fact. But riddle me this, if Gil and Haywood was healthy last year, would they had been a 19 win team? Or would they have been a 45 game winner at least? The fact is, neither Cleveland, Boston, or Orlando are that much better than washington if washington is healthy. Those teams had problems with washington when washington was without Arenas. Go ahead and say Cleveland beat washington 3 straight years if you want. But you'd better put an * beside the last 2 years the 2 teams met in the playoffs because Gil and Caron didnt play in one and Gil played on 1 leg in the other for the part of the series that he did play. I aint saying that Washington healthy would have one the series, but I will say this, if washington was healthy the past 2 years, it would have been a different story for all the east teams.

This year, line them up. As a wizard fan, I fear no team out there.

[Hoopalotta]

But sure if you want to compare Gilbert's selfish usage to other players with similar rates, feel free to check this list:

http://tinyurl.com/usageastsbyefg

Terrible company there: Tony Parker, Sam Cassell, DWade, Chris Paul, Brandon Roy. All terribly selfish players-- 'shoot first' guys the lot of 'em...

(Okay Mike James, though, maybe he helps your point).

Not exactly sure what point you are trying to make. With the exception of Parker, every player on that list with a higher usage rating is either a SG or SF and most of them averaged more assists. If you're suggesting he passes well for a SG then I'd agree. But even guys like Steve Francis, Baron Davis & Stephon Marbury averaged more assists from the point.

Point guard - shmoint guard.

Gil has been the offensive auteur of whomp-daddy offenses featuring three twenty point per game scorers, guys having career years and upper crust league wide efficiency ratings for the team as a whole. This has been done in multiple formats as well between Hughes and Butler. For the record, the ball movement should be as good as it ever was with four players who have averaged over four assists a game still in their prime. But assists only serve to further offensive production, so it stands to reason that if offensive production is audacious and incendiary, there is no need to quibble over the methodology used in achieving those results.

It's like being a judge at a wet t-shirt contest and saying "but you know Reginald, while her breasts are perfect, I'm a bit concerned that she might have acquired them while digesting an insufficient supply of potassium."

It doesn't matter.

This thread is just chock full of misinformation, with maybe the most egregious example being your line about Butler having a hard time to adjusting to being the second weapon "again". Hang on a minute, I'll get chicken little on the line and hopefully we can get the word out!

Fact is you don't know about the Zardos. Nothing to be ashamed of and such is life, but we might as well consult J.A. Adande for his take on the Bucks or maybe we could hear Archie Bunker's views on the romantic ballads of 14th century Tuscany.

[doclinkin]

But sure if you want to compare Gilbert's selfish usage to other players with similar rates, feel free to check this list:

http://tinyurl.com/usageastsbyefg

Terrible company there: Tony Parker, Sam Cassell, DWade, Chris Paul, Brandon Roy. All terribly selfish players-- 'shoot first' guys the lot of 'em...

(Okay Mike James, though, maybe he helps your point).

Not exactly sure what point you are trying to make. With the exception of Parker, every player on that list with a higher usage rating is either a SG or SF and most of them averaged more assists. If you're suggesting he passes well for a SG then I'd agree. But even guys like Steve Francis, Baron Davis & Stephon Marbury averaged more assists from the point.

The point my bovine buddy is that in an offense where there was no traditional point guard -- by design of the offense, where either of the two 'smalls' on court could initiate offense-- Gilbert Arenas compares well with some of the best high usage players in the game, players traditionally considered 'unselfish' team players. And when ranked by scoring efficiency you get a solid sense of why the smart move was to allow Gilbert offensive leeway to call his own number.

That's not selfishness, that's intelligence and efficiency, especially on a squad with few tertiary options. The primary scorers on the team managed to co-exist fine, at an all-star level. They say it, the stats back it up. Even a similar high-usage player like Larry Hughes played at a near all-star level before succumbing to his usual injury time-out.

You pretend to some concern that the team would be unable to integrate scorers next to a guy who has a strong net-positive effect on the scoring efficiency of guys around him. But the team's offense with Gilbert on court is rarely the problem. And peripheral players like DeShawn Stevenson, and even Jamison tend to increase their scoring efficiency with Gilbert on court. Caron as well, though his scoring efficiency jumped the year of Gilbert's absense because he added a three point shot to his arsenal after working with Wiz bench shooting guru Dr Hoops Dave Hopla. But on/off eFG% and player pairs regressions of 06-07 showed that Caron benefited well from Gilbert's presence.

If you're worried that somehow the team will crater by suddenly adding better depth, I'm not sure I can help you. Usually adding talent is considered a good thing. Maybe not in Motown.

[doclinkin]

That said I love having cordial smarty pants pointyheads from other teams. You're welcome anytime coworgy.

sic. of course.

[Cowology]

I stand corrected. Best of luck.

[Chpwags]

I'm not really high on the Pistons because I don't think they can put their best 5 players on the court at the same time. The Wizards should have no problem playing Haywood, Jamison, Butler, Arenas and one of Foye/Miller(I think 1 of those 2 should the 5th best player for the Wizards). To me the Pistons best players are Villanueva, Prince, Hamilton, Gordon and Stuckey and if you play that line up they aren't going to score enough to over come what they will give up. Their best 2 players in my opinion are both pure shooting guards and playing either one of Hamilton or Gordan out of position negates the advantages they have over their opposition. To win in the NBA I think you need to put your best players on the court in crunch time and Detroit is the only team in the league that I think will have a problem putting their two best players on the court at the same time during crunch time.