Can Hawks evolve into contender?

[evildallas]

Sports Illustrated has an article up about the Hawks. It recaps the summer and before and discusses what is needed from here. There's too much to quote so I advocate given the whole thing a read.

link here

One section he quotes an anonymous NBA scout:

"I think they're a middle-tier team again," an NBA scout said. "Still have a lot of talent but if you're counting on [Josh] Smith and Williams, you're only going so far. I like the Florida kid [Horford], but how many of those other guys have done anything with a team? Bibby played in good systems in Sacramento and [in college] at Arizona, but most of them spent a year or two in college. Or none [Smith]. When most of your experience is from AAU teams, it doesn't matter whether you win or lose."

Personally, I don't agree with the scout's points. I do agree that Josh Smith has often lacked maturity and that Marvin doesn't necessarily exhibit the aggression you see in top players, but I think he's selling them short. Not everyone plays like a seasoned vet from day 1. It takes time to learn how to win. Sometimes even the situation must change. Look at Chauncey Billups. After 5 years he would have been considered a flop bouncing from team to team after being selected #3 overall. In his 7th season he won a title as key player with Detroit and is now considered a steely vet. There's no guarantee that Josh or Marvin blossom this year, but it is just wrong to assume they form a ceiling to team success.

Furthermore to short change Horford because his college teammates haven't had success in the pros is unfair as well. Noah is developing with Chicago. The AAU comment is lame for a couple reasons. Some of the best players in the NBA skipped college. Smith and Williams are 5 years separated from high school meaning most of their experience is in the NBA not the AAU. Finally, just because a guy played AAU ball doesn't mean he doesn't want to win.

[killbuckner]

Its ridiculous to say that because guys didn't go to college that they aren't built to be winners. Its just a ridiculous college bias. Maybe he thinks the team would have been much better with Acie law running the point.

[JoshB914]

The return of the Sports Illustraded "NBA scout." I have no promise with the premise of his argument of us being in the "middle-tier." But the evidence to back up that theory is shaky at best and really doesn't sound like something a competent scout would say.

Then again, it's nice to see people actually talking about us in the first place in August!

[LL Cool Scott]

Aside from the jibber-jabber about college vs. AAU, I don't have too many bones to pick. We're about where we'll probably max out at without a trade for a star. Top 4 seed, second round of the playoffs. That's where the 80's teams maxed out at (WITH a star), and that's where the 90's teams maxed out at (WITHOUT a star). I have to believe we'll swing for the fences in the next couple of years and package of couple of these young guys for a marquee player. In the meantime, I'm content enough to wait and enjoy this group of guys.

[johnny878]

i have a hard time buying that a bunch of 22/23 year old guys have just about maxed out.

i think woodson needs to take off the training wheels with marvin williams. the guy needs a much bigger role in the offense. the team isnt going to improve as joe improves. joe has maxed. but it will improve with the improvement of marvin. marvin showed some potential firepower when given a bigger role in the offense last season when joe was out.

[Harry10]

if you look at recent history, you will see that big trades help in getting a championship:

Lakers: Gasol
Celtics: KG
Heat: Shaq
Pistons: Rasheed

i was hoping the Hawks could make a big trade for themselves this summer , Hawks: Bosh or Amare...... but i guess i'll have to hope that Crawford is going to be a big enough trade.

if you look at NBA champions, you will see that they usually are excellent in 3 areas:

1. a player that can create for himself and others
2. interior defense
3. 3pt shooting

with Crawford, Joe, Bibby, Marvin, and Evans, the Hawks could be a really really good 3pt shooting team. Hawks do have Joe as a guy who can create for himself, he is no where near the level of Wade or Lebron, but could be close to somebody like Billups. the big question is, can Horford step up and make the Hawks have a dominate interior defense.

the Hawks do have a shot at becoming a contender if they take the same approach that the Larry Brown Championship Pistons took.

[CViggity]

As a Hawks fan, you have to be very happy that we're being discussed this early and the direction we're in.

That said, we pretty much have a 0% chance of winning a title this year or next. The NBA is really top heavy right now and those top teams are all significantly better than the Hawks. Comparing us to the Pistons title team is silly, that team had a lot more talent (and still wouldn't be favored vs several teams this year)

Things are good for the Hawks, but thinking anything better than 4 seed in the East right now is being pretty homerish.

[evildallas]

The two big trades this off-season were Shaq and Vince Carter. Neither would have worked here. We didn't have the deals to offer Phoenix for Shaq and Vince Carter isn't an upgrade at the 2 for us. No other big names moved via trade and it takes two to tango.

Also in each of those examples there was also a key player drafted by the team in the mix:
Kobe
Paul Pierce
Dwayne Wade
Tayshaun Prince

1 trade can put you over the top but you need to be close to start with.

Also remember that 1 trade can also destroy your franchise if it is the wrong move.

[azuresou1]

Pretty much the only way we have a shot of winning this year is if the Magic team plane malfunctions and crashes into TD Banknorth Garden while the Celtics are hosting the Cavs.

[killbuckner]

dallas- I think a base of Marvin for Carter would have made the hawks significantly better. Whether that would be worth it long term (or whether the Nets would have been interested) is a different matter.

[killbuckner]

But anyway- I'll say that the ASG are not trying to build a championship contender. They are trying to build the best team they can without paying the luxury tax. But its hard to be a contender when there are other teams willing to spend 20 million dollars more for the talent on the court than you are. Frankly thats why I am surprised that the Hawks got Joe Smith- I thought that that the Hawks would have to pay more than the other contenders and they would go a different direction.

Maybe if the team breaks right and they end up on the precipice of being a contender they would make a trade and pay the tax to go over the top but thats not currently the team goal.

[evildallas]

OK, I wasn't considering Vince as a SF, but rather a SG. My mistake as he can play either spot. Trading for him would have been tough as well from a salary match stand point. Marvin was an RFA and the time meaning a sign and trade and potentially BYC issues. The only other salary around to match up a deal was what we sent to Golden St. for Crawford.

I'm not the biggest fan of Carter, but he would have been an offensive upgrade for sure. Whether he would be enough to help us advance another round in the playoffs I have my doubts.

I would think that we are better positioned to make a big trade next couple years given the way the cap rules work because we'll be able to match salary. Orlando was able to complete the deal for Carter because they could give up matching expiring contracts and impressive player on a rookie contract (Courtney Lee). I think NJ got swindled out of Ryan Anderson, but that's another story. That's what you need to make deals are coveted young talent and enough salary to make it work without those being bad contracts.