Complicated MIN-NOH (with GSW)

[shrink]

MIN GIVES: Ryan Gomes + Chucky Atkins + OPec + Bobby Brown + $1.4 mil cash
MIN GETS: Julian Wright + Hilton Armstrong + Speedy Claxton + NOH 1st (14/10/8/3/unp)

NOH GETS: Ryan Gomes + Chucky Atkins + OPec + Bobby Brown
NOH GIVES: Julian Wright + Hilton Armstrong + Antonio Daniels + NOH 1st (14/10/8/3/unp)

GSW GIVES: Speedy Claxton
GSW GETS: Antonio Daniels + $1.4 mil cash

WHY FOR NOH? MONEY. The deal saves them

$2.04 Armstrong $2.8 for Atkins $3.48, which becomes $0.76
$0.43 Julian Wright $2.0 for OPec $1.57
$2.00 Daniels $6.6 for Gomes $3.87 + Brown + 0.73
$4.47 2009 Savings
$3.66 Lux savings
$2.80 Return of Lux Share?

$10.93 2009 SAVINGS

NOH's pieces aren't worth that much money on their own, but the team gets back some additional benefits as well. Gomes is clearly the best player in the deal, and he'll be particularly attractive to the Hornets. Not only does he help them compete now, but he also provides security for injury-risk Peja, and also his partially-guaranteed deal could help the team next year since they are so close to the lux. NOH gives up Daniels (12 mpg), two prospects that haven't panned out, and a future pick with guaranteed salary they can't afford. NOH trades are generally fraught with problems, like trading Armstrong leaving no similar tall back-up center (this has OPec who might be a better fit with Okafor), or reducing their roster size when they are at a minimum of 13 (covered). Gomes will impress Chris Paul, improve the team's chances of contending, and most important, save Shinn almost $11 mil this year, and perhaps secure him under the lux next season until he can get Peja and Mo Pete off the books.

WHY FOR MIN? Youth. Gomes may be my favorite player on the team, but we're wasting him this season since we won't contend. Glen Taylor pays $4.4 mil, but gets a future NOH 1st, and two prospects that may look better in a new city with a chance to play. I would prefer a deal that moves Songalia, but these pieces could serve that purpose if necessary. Amazingly, even with all the trade delays on our newly acquired players, this deal can be split into three simultaneous trades and done today.

WHY FOR GSW? I still suspect Claxton is done, but since he's declared himself "healthy and ready to play," insurance won't cover his $5.2 mil contract. With the cash, GSW can have Antonio Daniels for the same price. Daniels would be a fantastic mentor to rookie Stephen Curry. (GSW's only in this deal to make the cap-matching work, so the deal can be done immediately -- if the Wolves wait 5 weeks, they can have Daniels instead of Claxton themselves, at the same price).

[shrink]

Personally, while I'm not big on the whole "pay a player to be a mentor" philosphy, I think I might prefer waiting for five weeks to do this deal, and cut GSW out completely. Daniels can still play a little, but I think his defensive mindset and play-off experience would be great for Flynn to see, and might help Rubio too.

Also I thought I'd demonstrate why this is a good deal for NOH:

Daniels << Gomes + Bobby Brown... (Gomes is far more productive)
Armstrong >= OPec..(Hilton's played a little more, OPec's a little cheaper)
NOH 1st = $4.47 mil in 2009 raw cap space... (struggle to afford pick, 2009 cap space >> cash)
Julian Wright << $6.46 mil in cash savings... (obviously)

[Worm Guts]

Hate it

[Biff Cooper]

I think NO would do this trade. MN would not.

[tvwolves7]

Not a big fan of it either. I am a fan of Gomes as well and really want to see how he will perform this year. He was very inconsistent with his scoring last year, sometimes going for 20+ and other times not reaching double digits. Also interested to see Opec playing with Jefferson and Love. Its not even OPec per say as that style of player I want to see next to Jefferson and Love.

[TDWOLVESFAN]

Although I really like Ryan Gomes on our team, getting Wright and Armstrong would add length and athletism to our lineup. We get two former 1st round picks relatively cheap. Armstrong can help out alot defensively and adds another young center to look at with Hollins. If one of the two young centers becomes dependable we will have a great front court rotation in Jefferson, Love and Armstrong/Hollins. After their rookie contracts are up in 1-2 years we can use them or lose them as we see fit.

Minutes could be distributed
Armstrong/ Hollins / Songalia (if here) split the 30-35 minutes that are left after Jefferson's 34-36 mpg and Loves 28-30 mpg + # of minutes added to F/C mpg pool due to injuries, illness, overtime and foul trouble.

If Wright can improve his 3pt shooting to 36-38% he will be a very good addition (>40% would be unrealistic for him I think).

I also hope we hire a better strength and conditioning coach for these skinny guys + a trainer simular to the one Phoenix has to help knee injured players to stay healthy. It can't be the water in Phoenix that keeps Nash, Amare and when they had him Shaq going.

[skorff26]

I would only if a Songalia + Atkins package hasn't attracted any interest.

I like Armstrong and Wright but I think Atkins is our best piece to include with Songalia to get out of his deal.

[Worm Guts]

If I'm moving Gomes, it's to move Songaila. We set the rebuilding process back a year, but we're not starting over. We shouldn't be having open tryouts.

[john2jer]

If we're moving Gomes AND Atkins, we better be moving Songalia. Do that and I like the idea.

[Devilzsidewalk]

I wouldn't even move Gomes to move Songaila, I'd rather put the Utah pick than Gomes. He can shoot, he can matchup with PFs and SFs, can start or come off the bench, good small ball player matching up at the 4 and ever improving at SF, great attitude and I think having him with Big Al is a good thing too. Songaila goes from negative to positive value starting the 2011 season, teams over the cap for this 2010 free agency splurge shouldn't need a kings ransom to take on Songaila, we can do it cheaper than Gomes.

As for Armstrong/Wright, Wright is intriguing, but I don't think he has that great of upside, he can't shoot at all, so that makes it hard to get him on the floor with Al Jefferson. Armstrong isn't even as good as Hollins, he's big and mildly athletic, fin.

[Steve_Holiday]

Don't understand this one at all. The Wolves PAY to give up the best player in the deal? Armstrong and Wright are young players, but I wouldn't call them "prospects." I think a line needs to be drawn at some point where the team has to stop taking less talent in trades for the sole reason that the players we are giving up don't "fit into the long-term plans."

[shrink]

If I'm moving Gomes, it's to move Songaila.

If we're moving Gomes AND Atkins, we better be moving Songalia. Do that and I like the idea.

You know I'm the biggest fan of moving Songalia's second year, but this is better.

Is there any doubt we could trade Songalia + NOH pick for an unproductive expiring?

[Worm Guts]

If I'm moving Gomes, it's to move Songaila.

If we're moving Gomes AND Atkins, we better be moving Songalia. Do that and I like the idea.

You know I'm the biggest fan of moving Songalia's second year, but this is better.

Is there any doubt we could trade Songalia + NOH pick for an unproductive expiring?

What's better about this? I'd rather not move Gomes at all.

[GopherIt!]

shrinks
this trade stinks

keep gomes. he's well worth 4-5M

[shrink]

Is Gomes + Songalia worth $17.5 over the next two years? Could we trade those two for an $8 mil expiring? I don't think he has the trade value to move Songalia, as has been mentioned earlier in the thread.

Look, Gomes may be my favorite player on the team, but he's not a valuable player for our future, and he's not a valuable trade piece. He makes $4 mil a year, and that's fair. On a better team, he's a sixth man -- I was thinking he might have been a sixth man even for our team last year sometimes, particularly before Brewer was hurt (but I'm not sure I remember). Gomes was an effective player two years ago, but by some metrics, he dropped precipitously last season.

http://www.wagesofwins.com/TWolves510809.html *

(* mid-season numbers)

We're not win-now, and we have to face that. Doing the deal this way makes Songalia easily disposable with the NOH 1st. For leftovers, we get Julian Wright and Hilton Armstrong, lottery prospects that at least have a chance to do something with a change in scenery and a few minutes.

[karch34]

I understand the money motivation, but I just don't like this trade. I just look at Wright and Armstrong as taller versions of Rashad McCants and picks are nice, but sometimes having a quality glue guy who has been our 2nd best player the last two years isn't something to just get rid of for the sake of we're 2 years away, especially when he's not that old.

[shrink]

I understand the money motivation, but I just don't like this trade. I just look at Wright and Armstrong as taller versions of Rashad McCants and picks are nice, but sometimes having a quality glue guy who has been our 2nd best player the last two years isn't something to just get rid of for the sake of we're 2 years away, especially when he's not that old.

I think that's a reasonable position.

One of my differences from most board posters is that I see these guys as commodities, and I try to be dispassionate about them.

Would Ryan Gomes help our team? Yes.

Would he be worth more to NOH? Yes.

At this point, I try to look at trades where we send Gomes to NOH, and get back assets that are worth more to us, considering our goals. Is there a package which falls between the value difference between MIN and NOH, where both teams win the trade?

I still believe that, like Telfair before him, Gomes is only paid a fair salary at $4 mil. He is not a deal. Ariza makes $5.5, and 5th starters (generously), aren't making MLE money any more. Still, he's a solid player that helps the team, and perhaps acquiring more future assets isn't always wise. However, the Kahn method seems to be to move good-but-not-great players, to acquire pieces that allow us to make moves to gamble on potential stars. I thought that's what this does. Armstrong and Wright may turn out to be nothing, but they have unrealized upside, and the pick allows us to move Songalia to get more cap space.

If you guys would prefer to keep Gomes, because his presence is valuable here (and it is), I will relent. I feel its kind of a "give-something-to-get-something" situation, and Gomes fits even better for the Hornets.

[shrink]

Maybe I can simplify this:

I've mentioned that NOH (14/10/8/3/unp) could be used to move Songalia. Personally, I think we could do it for less with the UTA pick, so that'd could be a pick improvement, but whatever. I also believe we could move Songalia by using Atkins, to the right team.

The net comparison becomes:

Would you trade Ryan Gomes for Julian Wright and Hilton Armstrong?

[Steve_Holiday]

At this point, I try to look at trades where we send Gomes to NOH, and get back assets that are worth more to us, considering our goals.

Just because the team is going young, it doesn't mean every player on the roster has to be less than a certain age. In two years, Gomes will be 29; not exactly a geezer. In two years, Armstrong and Wright will most likely still suck.

Would you trade Ryan Gomes for Julian Wright and Hilton Armstrong?

Absolutely not.

[shrink]

At this point, I try to look at trades where we send Gomes to NOH, and get back assets that are worth more to us, considering our goals.

Just because the team is going young, it doesn't mean every player on the roster has to be less than a certain age. In two years, Gomes will be 29; not exactly a geezer. In two years, Armstrong and Wright will most likely still suck.

Personally, I care less about his age than his lack of upside. He gets the most out of what he's got, which I admire, but it also limits his future.

Would you trade Ryan Gomes for Julian Wright and Hilton Armstrong?

Absolutely not.

Fair enough.