A semblance of a minor league tracking thread

[PhilipNelsonFan]

PROSPECT RANKINGS:

http://prospectinsider.com/blog_details.php?id=25

1. Triunfel
2. Adam Moore
3. Aumont
4. Saunders
5. Halman

[BlackMamba]

PROSPECT RANKINGS:

http://prospectinsider.com/blog_details.php?id=25

1. Triunfel
2. Adam Moore
3. Aumont
4. Saunders
5. Halman

great find!!!!!!!!!

[Ex-hippie]

That seems to be a very bullish report, better than we've seen in several years. They're projecting potential frontline starters as the 6th and 7th best prospects in the organizations, potential regulars in the 9-12 range, potential contributors throughout, and a few toolsy/upside types. What we lack is players who are ready to step into the lineup on opening day 2009 (I'd pencil in the #10 guy, Rob Johnson, and that's it), but that's partly because people like Clement and Balentien have made the Show and are off the list. And there are quite a few who look like they could arrive sometime in 2009 or for opening day 2010 (Moore, Saunders, Tuiasosopo, Raben, Valbuena, Thomas, Wilson). If this is the standard view of the system in the industry, I'd say it's in better shape than most of us have thought.

Two prospects whose absence surprised me to some extent: Matt Mangini and Alex Liddi. I know neither of them had a good season in 2008, but are they both now lower-ranked prospects than a couple of punchless first basemen in their mid-20s (at #21 and #22)?

Little did I know we had the next Curtis Pride in the system (Tyson Gillies, #23).

[PhilipNelsonFan]

New GM, no problem for Billy Bean.

[b_roy7]

Rule 5 Draft Results

[Ex-hippie]

I'm a little confused by the selection of Corona in the Rule 5 draft. A 710 OPS at age 24 in AA? Sounds like he's gearing up to be a poor man's Willie Bloomquist.

I also learned from the article that the Trenton team's name is the Thunder. I like it -- very suitable for a minor league team; it practically cries out "bush league."

[Basketball Jesus]

Reegie's 22, I do believe. At least that's what it says on the Cube page.

He's a pinch-running burner with decent defense. If anything, he provides not-too-embarrassing depth behind Yuni at short. Hell, he might even be better than Yuni. Certainly couldn't get much worse.

[PhilipNelsonFan]

John Sickels has posted his top 20 Mariners prospects on his Minor League Ball blog. You get the top five; follow the link for the rest. I'll also post his analysis of the farm.

1) Carlos Triunfel, INF, Grade B+: He has flaws, but holding your own in the Cal League at age 18 is special. High risk, high reward.

2) Greg Halman, OF, Grade B: Another high risk/high reward guy, awesome power/speed potential but huge problems with breaking balls. Could be a B+ but high risk of failure and 2.5 years older than Triunfel.

3) Phillipe Aumont, RHP, Grade B: Impressive arm and good numbers in the Midwest League, but too raw to get a B+.

4) Juan Ramirez, RHP, Grade B: Another live arm who did well at the lower levels but needs additional refinement.

5) Michael Pineda, RHP, Grade B: Doesn’t throw quite as hard as Aumont and Ramirez, but better command.

SYSTEM IN BRIEF
The big trade with the Mets provides a quick boost for his list, adding a bit of depth to a system that needs it.
This system has considerable high risk/high reward talent. Halman and Triunfel are the epitome of that on the position player side, and Saunders, Wilson, DeJesus, and Martinez all fit that category too. These guys could develop into stars, or nothing, or anything in between. The pitching has depth in live arms at the lower level, but most of them needing more development time. The Aumont/Ramirez/Pineda trio could be special….but remember the fates of other pitching prospect aggregations. The attrition rate of such arms is very high.
The Mariners have put a lot of money into Latin America and will keep doing so, but it will be interesting to see if the new regime modifies their draft philosophy.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/1/2 ... -top-20-pr

[Basketball Jesus]

Project Prospect did a neat comparison between Isaac Davis and Dennis Raben:

http://projectprospect.com/article/2009 ... nnis-raben

[Ex-hippie]

Everything I read about Raben points to him being an elite power hitter at the major league level, a TTO guy comparable to Adam Dunn, and yet those organizational prospect rankings rarely place him even in the top ten. Maybe it's just his lack of exposure thus far, and he'll go flying up the charts this season. He was drafted as a relatively seasoned college player, and I'd hope to see him given an opportunity to crack the opening day roster in 2010.

The description of Raben's defensive future seems to contradict the one from the article that is linked (where it uses the words "40 HR, light-tower power"). The latter article gives him a 60 for arm strength and says he has the potential to be a decent outfielder who can move around reasonably well out there. The comparison article, by contrast, says his arm is "reportedly mediocre" and he's destined for first base sooner rather than later. I don't know which one to believe. Even if the arm is that good, I doubt we'll see him in right field, a position that's locked up in this organization for the next several years, so maybe it's not important.

Overall, Raben is yet another player in the organization who makes me think "we don't quite know what we have here, but in one year we'll have a much better idea." Same as Saunders (who also should get a look for 2010) and Halman (perhaps on target for 2011). Which is why I ultimately was against the team committing long-term money to an outfielder this offseason.

[Basketball Jesus]

I think, with Zduriencik and Wakawakawaka's emphasis on defense, we'll probably see Raben groomed as the team's future first baseman. Even if Raben is mobile for a guy his size and could passably play corner defense, he's not a particularly agile fielder. The M's have a good deal of defensive strength in the corners, like you mentioned.

In a similar vein, it wouldn't surprise me to see lumbering strong-armed power-hitting outfielders go the way of the buffalo; teams are starting to trend towards more mobile, well-rounded athletes to man the corner outfield spots*.

Raben at first also makes a great deal of sense organizationally; aside from Mike Carp, this team doesn't have a legitimate 1B prospect and even Carp is more likely destined for bench duties.



*Which is yet another reason why gross HR totals are falling; teams aren't putting as much emphasis on TTO or power-hitting types as they were in the late nineties-early aughts. So not all of the power dropoff can be attributed to OMGWTFSTEROIDS!!!1!!!

[Ex-hippie]

*Which is yet another reason why gross HR totals are falling; teams aren't putting as much emphasis on TTO or power-hitting types as they were in the late nineties-early aughts. So not all of the power dropoff can be attributed to OMGWTFSTEROIDS!!!1!!!

Yeah, I've observed before that I missed out on a couple of years of thinking by the baseball cognoscenti. I was stuck in the Moneyball era when TTO guys were gods. When the mere suggestion that players like Alfonso Soriano and Ichiro Suzuki are really valuable, that defense wins championships, or that Endy Chavez could be a passable corner outfielder, would get you laughed right out of rec.sport.baseball. I still need to update my thinking.

[Basketball Jesus]

The problem is you still have intelligent people that still think that way. Heck, even I sometimes think that way. A lot of it has to do with the reliability and consistency of defensive metrics vis-a-vis offensive metrics but also because the slugging stars of recent memory are still ingrained in our perception of corner outfielders.

[Ex-hippie]

...mind you, no matter what the leading baseball minds are thinking these days, if you can hit 40 homers and draw 100 walks, there's always a spot for you on my team.

[PhilipNelsonFan]

Carlos Triunfel has broken his tibia (if LL is right) and he'll miss the entirety of 2009.

So basically, Seattle has lost its two top prospects to injury and the bullpen, with no one even close to replacing them. Wonderful.

I know it takes no more than a couple of seasons to build a farm system (look at Texas), but this is just ludicrous.

[jumanji]

Jeff Clement has been raking as of late and i wonder what trade value he has. I wouldnt be opposed to him eventually playing 1st or DHing (he cant catch) but not sure if that is what they envision with him. Boston is looking for a guy that can rotate between 1st/C and DH so he could find a home there but not sure they would part with a premium pitcher prospect to get it done.

Michael Saunders is hitting well so there might be some trade bait out there to get some infield and starting pitching help for the 2nd half of the season.

[Sweezo]

Michael Saunders is hitting well so there might be some trade bait out there to get some infield and starting pitching help for the 2nd half of the season.

I don't think you trade Saunders...he's probably your starting LF for 2010 and beyond until Ackley's ready. Of course, I'd give just about anything for an above average SS so...

[jumanji]

Alex Liddi has been huge this summer, he's starred at high desert and at 21 looks to be the 3b of the future. Would be the 1st Italian born player in the majors i believe (not that there's anything wrong with that).

[Ex-hippie]

Alex Liddi has been huge this summer, he's starred at high desert and at 21 looks to be the 3b of the future. Would be the 1st Italian born player in the majors i believe (not that there's anything wrong with that).

First in a long time, anyway. I'm glad to see that Liddi has re-emerged as a legit prospect. I'll still want to see how it translates at West Tenn next year and whether the strikeouts hold him back, but yeah, he's back on the map.