Complicated MIN-NOH (with GSW)
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Re: Complicated MIN-NOH (with GSW)
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Re: Complicated MIN-NOH (with GSW)
I just think it's important to remember this isn't a video game. I'm concerned about the mental of Al Jefferson. This has been a tough summer for him, most of his friends on the team have been traded and not for pieces that will help us this year. I don't want to oversell this point, because it's probably not too big of a deal, but neither is the gain on this trade. Unless there is a substantial gain, I'd rather keep Gomes and not risk Jefferson quitting on the team because it's so bad.
Re: Complicated MIN-NOH (with GSW)
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Re: Complicated MIN-NOH (with GSW)
I don't love it or hate it. The question is how good is Ryan Gomes.
Based on last season's productivity level- he's a fringe rotation member on a good squad. He had a below average PER with quite poor win score numbers for minutes played. Dave Berri even defined his minutes played as having negative value to the squad. He didn't shoot the ball well, isn't much of a rebounder nor anything better than an average defender. If he equals this level of production- this season- his option isn't getting picked up. So I think it's fair to say some are overvaluing him on this board. I'm curious as to what I'm missing rather than Gomes being an "Great Guy". One could probably even make the case Rodney Carney was a better player last season, and he hasn't received a contract as of yet.
I will say he was quite a bit more productive in 2007-2008. Although their is no way he's a starting 4 on a Championship level squad. When people say "We need to keep him since he's a starter" or "We need to keep Al" happy. The only reason- he's starting is because of a byproduct of other talent on the wings.
I like Shrink's thinking behind this one. I assume we'd get another pick in the Mid-Late teens here that could be used to acquire a player with more long-term upside. I doubt going from Gomes to Wright would even make a difference of more than 1-2 victories this season. So whether we win 28 games or 26 games this trade probably doesn't matter much in the grand scheme of things.
Based on last season's productivity level- he's a fringe rotation member on a good squad. He had a below average PER with quite poor win score numbers for minutes played. Dave Berri even defined his minutes played as having negative value to the squad. He didn't shoot the ball well, isn't much of a rebounder nor anything better than an average defender. If he equals this level of production- this season- his option isn't getting picked up. So I think it's fair to say some are overvaluing him on this board. I'm curious as to what I'm missing rather than Gomes being an "Great Guy". One could probably even make the case Rodney Carney was a better player last season, and he hasn't received a contract as of yet.
I will say he was quite a bit more productive in 2007-2008. Although their is no way he's a starting 4 on a Championship level squad. When people say "We need to keep him since he's a starter" or "We need to keep Al" happy. The only reason- he's starting is because of a byproduct of other talent on the wings.
I like Shrink's thinking behind this one. I assume we'd get another pick in the Mid-Late teens here that could be used to acquire a player with more long-term upside. I doubt going from Gomes to Wright would even make a difference of more than 1-2 victories this season. So whether we win 28 games or 26 games this trade probably doesn't matter much in the grand scheme of things.
Re: Complicated MIN-NOH (with GSW)
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Re: Complicated MIN-NOH (with GSW)
Jose Cordoba wrote:One could probably even make the case Rodney Carney was a better player last season
Without wanting to start an argument about the merits of win-scores, I would say you are in the minority on this one.
We disagree on Gomes' value, but I still don't see the logic in trading away one of the only players on the roster capable of scoring more than 10 pts/game for junk (Wright, Armstrong) or yet another mid-1st prayer.
Also, if a mid-1st round pick turns out to be as good as Gomes, that's typically considered a positive; AND we have a stockpile of them. Maybe I'm in the minority, but I believe that it IS possible to hit a point of diminishing returns when trading away productivity for intangible assets (cap space and picks).
Re: Complicated MIN-NOH (with GSW)
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Re: Complicated MIN-NOH (with GSW)
I think the assumption of Gomes having value because he can score 10PPG is problematic at best. He can certainly take enough shots to score ten points per game- this isn't that rare a feat. The efficiency in which he scores is no great shakes though. I'll agree with you that neither Wright nor Armstrong are great scorers. Although both have some limited value for a team. As far as Gomes general value- he probably received a far contract of 4-5 Million last year. He then proceeded to have a season that wasn't worth his contract. How many teams do you think would pay him more than 2 million for next year?? Very Few-
Re: Complicated MIN-NOH (with GSW)
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Re: Complicated MIN-NOH (with GSW)
shrink wrote:
I still believe that, like Telfair before him, Gomes is only paid a fair salary at $4 mil. He is not a deal. Ariza makes $5.5, and 5th starters (generously), aren't making MLE money any more. Still, he's a solid player that helps the team, and perhaps acquiring more future assets isn't always wise. However, the Kahn method seems to be to move good-but-not-great players, to acquire pieces that allow us to make moves to gamble on potential stars. I thought that's what this does. Armstrong and Wright may turn out to be nothing, but they have unrealized upside, and the pick allows us to move Songalia to get more cap space.
If you guys would prefer to keep Gomes, because his presence is valuable here (and it is), I will relent. I feel its kind of a "give-something-to-get-something" situation, and Gomes fits even better for the Hornets.
I don't necessarily disagree with the idea, as everything we're trying to do is really set ourselves up for the future and getting potential stars. It's probably more that I'm not that high on Armstrong and Wright. I will admit I'm a big fan of Gomes, even with his flaws. I know he's being paid more than we would like, but at the same time I think his worst case is a decent combo forward off the bench and a solid veteran presence (not an old veteran, but we don't have much in that category either). I think that kind of dovetails with Steve's dimininishing returns comments.
Part of it as well, with any deal like this, is we're speculating on what we can do with all our assets a year or two out, so it makes the decision on being for or against a trade much more difficult as we have no idea what we would wind up with as the end result.
All of that said, keep coming up with the scenarios. I enjoy them.
Re: Complicated MIN-NOH (with GSW)
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Re: Complicated MIN-NOH (with GSW)
Jose Cordoba wrote:
I will say he was quite a bit more productive in 2007-2008. Although their is no way he's a starting 4 on a Championship level squad. When people say "We need to keep him since he's a starter" or "We need to keep Al" happy. The only reason- he's starting is because of a byproduct of other talent on the wings.
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It's not just his relative productiveness that keeps Al happy, it the fact that they've playing together for something like 4 years. There's a sense of familiarity. And it's not as if we could keep Wright or Armstrong without losing capspace. So basically we're trading Gomes for a 1st round pick in the 20's and a million dollars worth of cap savings.
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