Is Boston in a good position to extend Ray?

[campybatman]

Yes, I think so. Initially, I thought it would've been ideal if Ray's salary had expired after this season. However, given that the 2010 free agents might be more appealing and Ray's age, I like Ainge's chances of coming to a middle ground in negotiations on Ray's worth after next season.

I'll give this article's questions a try.

I feel as if $10M would be overspending for Ray. Especially, if I wouldn't place him in the first tier of those 2010 free agents. It'll be interesting to see what the market is for others like McGrady, Ginobili and M. Miller. Despite his age, Ray's experience keeps him no lower than a second tier group. Moreover, I doubt Pierce would exercise his player's option in his last year, and Garnett's contract is guaranteed for all of the remaining years. Therefore, I'll say $8M a year for Ray is reasonable. Then you extend Pierce the following year. I say, $9M to $10M is good for Pierce.

My feeling is that you try to resign the players who genuinely desire to remain with your franchise and have helped you to get to where you're now. I would make it a point to bring Ray back if I'm Ainge. Ray's good for the team's image (off the court, marketing possibilities; community) and for the NBA. I mean even though Boston didn't draft him, he's Boston's Reggie Miller. I say you keep him for a reasonable contract. You can still build toward the future without sacrificing either Ray or Pierce. If Ainge can make some shrewd moves in future free agencies and through the draft. Perhaps, he'll keep this as good as they can be for this franchise moving forward. I think it's hard to just go younger right now and expect to maintain a certain level of competitiveness. Both Pierce and Garnett are still under contract so you've to continue to surround them with solid complementary players until it's time for them to take lesser roles. How would Boston avoid becoming a mediocre team without Pierce or Ray and only having Garnett left. Which established players can help Garnett? Obviously, one option is to try to extend Rondo. Or another option can be to try and pursue Durant. He has to be at the top of Ainge's wish list, not anyone possibly available of the top names in 2010.

1) Offensive Performance
Instead of droning on and on about Ray’s offensive abilities I will let some numbers from last year do the talking here in showing how crucial Allen has been to the C’s success. Stats from Basketball Reference

True Shooting Percentage: .624 (2nd in league)
2 Point Jumper Shooting Percentage: .487 (2nd in league)
Effective Field Goal Percentage: .575 (5th in league)
Field Goal Percentage: .480 (best in career)
Free Throw Percentage: .952 (2nd in league)
Offensive Rating: 121.7 (5th in league)
Win Shares: 11.0 (8th in league)
Roland Rating: +8.4 (13th in league)

Those are some impressive stats, especially when you realize Allen was the top shooting guard in the NBA for the majority of those rankings. Clearly Ray can be deemed a one dimensional player, but as we can see above, he performs that one dimension quite well, having put together one of the best statistical all around seasons of his career last season. Keep in mind, he did all this without the aid of Kevin Garnett for the final 4 months of the season, and with the support of an inferior team compared to the team’s 2008 championship run. When you take those factors into account, those numbers stand out even more.

3) The Free Agent Market
Though the C’s will not be in good shape to replace a departing Ray Allen via the free agent market, they will be able to offer him as much money as they see fit. Based on Chad Ford’s latest analysis of cap room for teams during the 2010 free agency period, there will only be about 9 teams with more than 10 million dollars in cap room to spend next summer. Out of those teams, there will be few playoff teams with any real cap room with Miami, Atlanta, Houston and potentially Chicago likely being the potential teams in play.

Two of these teams will likely be occupied with keeping their own stars (Dwyane Wade and Joe Johnson) making it unlikely they will be looking at throwing big money at a 35 year old Allen to replace them.
Therefore if Ray Allen wants to play for a contender next season, the vast majority of those squads will only be able to offer Allen the mid level exception on the open market (about 6 million dollars).

It would seem quite easy for the C’s to match and surpass that 6 million dollar number, given that it would be nearly a 75% paycut for employee #20. Now there is always the possibility of a sign and trade, but I can’t see the C’s sending Ray away somewhere willingly where he could potentially come back to haunt them. So if Allen does indeed want to continue playing for Championship contender to finish out his career, Boston could be the most appealing option both competitively and financially speaking.

It’s clear though Danny Ainge and ownership will be holding the chips in this scenario and likely will decide on a dollar figure that Allen is worth and stick to it. My question to you guys is what will Ray Allen be worth following this year and will the C’s be willing to pay it? Obviously it’s a bit premature, but given only a slight dropoff in production, would 10 million per year be a fair offer? Less? More? And should the team be focused on bringing him back or instead start the process of getting younger earlier rather than all at once a few years down the line?

http://celticshub.com/2009/08/25/what-w ... this-year/

[SonicYouth34]

I love Ray. But he's not really worth more than 6-7 million a year. I know his shot will still be there, but given his injury history and his decline in stamina/speed, it'll be foolish to pay him a lot.

[sully00]

The hard part to grasp in these situations is that because a players current team is capable of paying him more than another team it isn't simply about matching what another team can offer. Add to that several teams have attempted to position themselves to be able to sign two max contract players, and with the reduced cap that is unlikely but teams will be sitting their with a max slot and another 10 or so mil and investing that in two years of Ray may interest them, as opposed to say doing some of the dumb **** they tend to do with that money like giving it to Larry Hughes.

I will be very surprised if Pierce's 21 mil option is not converted into a 3 year extension simliar to KG's 16, 18, 21, perhaps a 4 year deal that has a flat salary in the 16-18 mil range, no chance at him taking 8 or 9 mil.

As for Ray I think the issue will become years. If Ray is willing to go year to year then he is worth more money for one year, if he has another season like he did this year then I would say 15-16 mil is fine. On a two year deal at 10-11 mil per seems about right, but I think that Kidd has kind of set the market for Ray with his 3 year deal 25 mil deal.

[sully00]

I love Ray. But he's not really worth more than 6-7 million a year. I know his shot will still be there, but given his injury history and his decline in stamina/speed, it'll be foolish to pay him a lot.

How do you possibly support this statement? What injury history? What stamina/speed issue? Ray Allen is old but he is still one of the 5 best SGs in the league. The player you describe in Manu Ginobli.

[The Rondo Show]

I think it's pretty close to a lock that we extend Ray, barring a drastic drop off that doesn't appear imminent. With the cap dropping quite a bit and the amount of money we have spent this off-season, we can't really afford a huge max money younger star like we were dreaming about. So you extend Ray at slightly more than other teams will offer, similar to the Lakers with Odom and the Mavs with Kidd.

Everyone will be offering him the mid-level, but it's unlikely any team throws the real big money at him considering his age and I'm guessing Ray is perfectly content to finish his career in New England with a championship caliber team. You extend him for $8M-$10M a year and set him up to expire the same time as KG/Pierce/'Sheed. Then you go nuts in free agency in a couple years when you are way under the cap and have stars that need to be replaced.

[chas0x01]

Didn't we just sign Sheed for $6Mil per? And Sheed and Ray are what 10 months apart? Why would RA be getting much more than what Sheed signed for?

[Greenwise]

Didn't we just sign Sheed for $6Mil per? And Sheed and Ray are what 10 months apart? Why would RA be getting much more than what Sheed signed for?

Because we couldn't offer more than the MLE (as well as other teams). But here we are talking about contract extensions, not FA signings. I would extend Ray to $18Mil- 2 year extension right now

[bc legends]

Didn't we just sign Sheed for $6Mil per? And Sheed and Ray are what 10 months apart? Why would RA be getting much more than what Sheed signed for?

Age and money have absolutely no correlation in respect to those two. Allens shooting numbers have actually increased last season when compared to the previous few. Hes a veteran SG who not only possesses great leadership but still has amazing offensive ability(.480%FG/.409%3PT/.952%FT). Do you really think those numbers are deserving of MLE money? His contract should be extended at 8mil/year.

[campybatman]

In my opinion, there exist a pecking order on the Celtics in terms of the top players we've right now. The one player outside of them that could affect this viewpoint, in terms of the order of names, is Rondo. He representing youth and promise versus the veterans, Pierce, Garnett, R. Wallace and Ray, representing leadership and experience.

With Garnett and Rasheed under contract for at least three years, Ainge will have his work cut out for him in deciding when to negotiate a contract extension with both Ray and Rondo, and in what order he does so to appease them. The timing will matter as that was the case in acquiring both Ray and Garnett via separate trades.

Rondo's impending free agent status seems to me as the more complicated matter to address of the two. It's possible he and agent could decide to accept the qualifying offer and wait until after next season and join the 2011 free agent pool. But I doubt he'll opt to do this. Regardless, a lot is riding on how much better he plays next season. Hopefully, he can stay healthy.

If you subscribe to the idea of a pecking order, then Ray deserves the first attention. Ainge will deserve all the credit in the world if he devises a successful plan that creates the financial flexibility after extending both Ray and Pierce to allow himself to eventually target a young franchise player. As said, Durant or someone else.

[sunshinekids99]

Didn't we just sign Sheed for $6Mil per? And Sheed and Ray are what 10 months apart? Why would RA be getting much more than what Sheed signed for?

The Celtics can't lose one of their max contracts. If they want to stay good then need to keep 3 max contracts. With that said, I'd rather give that contract to someone other than Ray this offseason.

[The Rondo Show]

Didn't we just sign Sheed for $6Mil per? And Sheed and Ray are what 10 months apart? Why would RA be getting much more than what Sheed signed for?

The Celtics can't lose one of their max contracts. If they want to stay good then need to keep 3 max contracts. With that said, I'd rather give that contract to someone other than Ray this offseason.

Is that even an option? I thought this max contract stuff was going to be a tight enough fit prior to the cap dropping significantly and us going out and signing 'Sheed and Daniels? I'm under the impression that we don't have nearly enough money to get one of those max money free agents next year, but I don't know much about the Celtics cap situation. Is that wrong?

[chas0x01]

Didn't we just sign Sheed for $6Mil per? And Sheed and Ray are what 10 months apart? Why would RA be getting much more than what Sheed signed for?

Because we couldn't offer more than the MLE (as well as other teams). But here we are talking about contract extensions, not FA signings. I would extend Ray to $18Mil- 2 year extension right now

Are you RA agent? No way Ray gets an $18Mil 2 year extension. I have a feeling Rondo is gonna be worth about $12Mil per, this time next year.

[vct33]

My first preference would still be to trade Ray before the deadline. I don't want to trade him just for the sake of trading him. I'd want an All-Star caliber SG and another young talent in return. However, if a trade doesn't happen, we have to extend him. It's a must because there would be no way to replace him with some MLE signing. Also, if we extend him, he will be a valuable expiring contract at some point in the future and we could make a trade at that time.

Didn't we just sign Sheed for $6Mil per? And Sheed and Ray are what 10 months apart? Why would RA be getting much more than what Sheed signed for?

The Celtics can't lose one of their max contracts. If they want to stay good then need to keep 3 max contracts. With that said, I'd rather give that contract to someone other than Ray this offseason.

This is sorta my point with the trade. We'd have to trade his expiring for a "max-contract" type of player. If he expires, we are still over the cap and would have only the MLE to sign his replacement.

[campybatman]

Who do people think instead is worth Ray's potential salary in an extension?

I don't believe there's anyone you can target next off-season at shooting guard who won't be less of a player than him for what you're willing to spend. A player such as Johnson you can omit as a choice right off. And McGrady and Ginobili I wouldn't sign if it were feasible to get either one. They're both injury prone.

Notable free agents that will possibly be available next off-season.

UFA

Joe Johnson
Raja Bell
Tracy McGrady
Larry Hughes
Sasha Pavlovic
Manu Ginobili
Mike Miller

RFA

Anthony Morrow
Thabo Sefolosha
Ronnie Brewer


For a shooter, I like Miller. He's still young. But he seems more ideal as a sixth man than a starter. While Bell offers more defense but he's just as old as Ray. He'll turn thirty-three next month.

[Celts17Pride]

I love Ray. But he's not really worth more than 6-7 million a year. I know his shot will still be there, but given his injury history and his decline in stamina/speed, it'll be foolish to pay him a lot.

How do you possibly support this statement?

because the Celtics have Tony Allen already on the roster.

[Celts17Pride]

No way Ray gets an $18Mil 2 year extension.

We will see what happens but I think you are being silly if you don't think Ray Allen is going to get an extension between $8-10 million per year. He is the starting SG on a championship contending team.

[chas0x01]

No way Ray gets an $18Mil 2 year extension.

We will see what happens but I think you are being silly if you don't think Ray Allen is going to get an extension between $8-10 million per year. He is the starting SG on a championship contending team.

RA's production is likely to drop significantly over the next 3 years or so. I could see 8Mil for 3 years with a team option in the 3rd. I think if Rondo doesn't get an extension close to 10Mil per, he may wait til next summer for his money. I expect Rondo to end up with at least a $10Mil per deal. His numbers are gonna be very impressive.

[Celts17Pride]

No way Ray gets an $18Mil 2 year extension.

We will see what happens but I think you are being silly if you don't think Ray Allen is going to get an extension between $8-10 million per year. He is the starting SG on a championship contending team.

RA's production is likely to drop significantly over the next 3 years or so. I could see 8Mil for 3 years with a team option in the 3rd. I think if Rondo doesn't get an extension close to 10Mil per, he may wait til next summer for his money. I expect Rondo to end up with at least a $10Mil per deal. His numbers are gonna be very impressive.

$8 million for Ray & $10 million for Rondo sounds about right.

[sully00]

Didn't we just sign Sheed for $6Mil per? And Sheed and Ray are what 10 months apart? Why would RA be getting much more than what Sheed signed for?

Well to start with Ray Allen is a much better player than Sheed and worth more money. But you sort of hit on the main point of the situation. Sure we signed Sheed to a deal that avg 6.3 mil but but it is a 3 year deal, I doubt we get 6.8 worth of play out of Sheed in year 3. We gave him 18 mil dollars. I could see Boston doing something similar with Ray giving him a lower annual salary but for a year longer than he is likely going to play and he gets his money either way. It is robbing the future to pay for the present which is a risk, but if it eases the transition then maybe it is worth it. Something along the lines 4 years 32 mil that Ray only has to play 3 to get.

Too many teams are going to be under the cap to screw around low balling Ray if you really want him back. Other teams will smell blood and can throw him a one year deal at 10-12 mil and back Boston into a corner.

[campybatman]

I would like not to think of Ray as a hired gun, the type of player who regularly is relocating to a new team in favor of the best offer or for other reasons. Perhaps, remaining with Boston is the best choice. If he and Ainge understand this. A reasonable offer will be presented at the most appropriate time, or so I hope. On the other hand, if it isn't meant to be, then I would like for Ray to end his Boston stint on top. That is to say, the winning of a NBA championship next year. I'll like to watch an encore of Ray Allen being a difference maker, in the Finals as a Celtic