Lombardi's SB pick: GB vs NE

[ReasonablySober]

Just heard it on Simmons' podcast.

Sort of interesting the love the Packers are getting lately, much of it based upon a preseason in which most say means nothing.

[MickeyDavis]

Yeah they are the sexy pick right now.

[El Duderino]

Just heard it on Simmons' podcast.

Sort of interesting the love the Packers are getting lately, much of it based upon a preseason in which most say means nothing.

Well, it's not some ridiculous thought

We obviously have an extremely talented offense that should be as good as any offense outside of maybe the Saints in the NFC. Rodgers just looks so poised and on top of his game and then you add Finley to all the other offensive weapons, we are going to score a ton of points if Rodgers is healthy.

Then on defense, Capers has a track record of quickly turning mediocre defenses into good ones and it's not like our defense has little talent.

It's way to soon for me to think Super Bowl, but if i had to bet 500 bucks of my own cash on who wins the NFC North, i'd put it on us. Coaching matters more in football than any other sport and i never liked Bob Sanders. His scheme counted almost entirely on talented players making it function well while i think Capers is better able to mask some weaknesses by scheme and smart game calling.

[Kerb Hohl]

I think many people forget how unlucky we were in games last year. I wouldn't say it was all preseason hype I've thought this team had big things in store for a long time.

[Flames24Rulz]

I think we have as good of a shot as any to go that deep this season.

[trwi7]

I think many people forget how unlucky we were in games last year. I wouldn't say it was all preseason hype I've thought this team had big things in store for a long time.

Yep. We lost two OT games last year and had five more that we lost by four points or less and that's not even included the Tampa Bay game we lost by name (when we had the lead with less than three minutes left in the game.)

So that's eight of our 10 losses where we lost by four points or less or lost by more than that but had the lead late in the game. That's unheard of. It's very unlikely to happen again.

I think with Capers running the defense instead of Sanders, we won't lose so many 4th quarter leads.

[LUKE23]

I have us at 11-5. Making the SB,, not willing to go that far yet, but there are FAR too many people that just look at our record last year and say it isn't possible. I wouldn't bet on it, but I wouldn't be completely shocked either. NFC doesn't have a top tier elite team like I consider NE/Pitt.

[PkrsBcksGphsMqt]

I would love to see Brent Favre's reaction to the Packers winning the Super Bowl this year, haha. I'd also love to see all the TT haters reactions as well. That would be so so sweet.

[Mags FTW]

I like Lombardi, but Football Outsiders seems to be more reliable (projected us as a sleeper in '07). This year they like the Giants and Bears...

[paulpressey25]

Sort of interesting the love the Packers are getting lately, much of it based upon a preseason in which most say means nothing.

I'm not in that camp. The preseason is huge. Go back to our season prediction thread from last year. I believe I said 6-10 and noted just about everything that would go wrong. It was easy to see it all from the problems we had in the preseason.

Conversely this year you can see some really good things out there in the first two games, just as you could see the intense defense in the 2007 preseason that ended up launching a great year.

This year should be an excellent year as long as Rodgers stay healthy and the team only loses maybe one starter for the season to major injury. But we'll see how the team does Friday night in out in Arizona.

[El Duderino]

I like Lombardi, but Football Outsiders seems to be more reliable (projected us as a sleeper in '07). This year they like the Giants and Bears...

I'm trying to figure out why so many seem to think this highly of the Bears?

I'm not trying to say that they'll suck, but i can't see how the Bears could end up in the Super Bowl. They have massive question marks at WR in what's now a passing league and while their defense could be pretty good, i don't see it being great. Barring one of those magical years where just everything goes right for them, i see the Bears ceiling being 10-6 and maybe one playoff win.

[Mags FTW]

i can't see how the Bears could end up in the Super Bowl. They have massive question marks at WR in what's now a passing league and while their defense could be pretty good, i don't see it being great.

Offensively, I think a lot of prognosticators are counting on 3 things. 1) Cutler will make their below average WR corps look average at worst, 2) Olson will make the jump to a top 5 TE, and 3) Forte will make an improvement over last year, which would essentially make him a top 5 RB.

Defensively, I don't know what most people are seeing. Football Outsiders also predicts them to be top notch, which would be quite a development because they were 21st in yards allowed and 16th in points allowed last year. I'm guessing some people think an improved offense will help keep the D adequately rested, which is something they haven't had in awhile.

[LUKE23]

I see the Bears as the third best team in this division. Right now, I have it:

Vikings: 11-5
Packers: 11-5
Bears: 8-8
Lions: 4-12

Vikings will have the best D, Packers will have the best O, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Bears had both the third best D and third best O in the division. I won't be surprised if our D is better than theirs.

Football Outsiders has us at 7-9 this year. I'm going to take my 11-5 prediction over theirs.

[MickeyDavis]

Lions were 4-0 in preseason last year.

[LUKE23]

Lions were 4-0 in preseason last year.

I don't think anyone cares about preseason record. It is more about how your 1's look vs. other teams 1's. And I wouldn't predict a SB off that either, but we have looked pretty good and the NFC does not have a standout team.

[Mags FTW]

Lions were 4-0 in preseason last year.

Their offense scored 23 1st quarter points during the entire preseason. The Pack has already scored 28. The dominance of this offense so far cannot be over looked, preseason or not. 6 possessions, 5 TDS and a FG opportunity passed up to go for it on 4th.

[bucks59]

Even though the Packers suffered a ton of injuries and had some bad luck at the end of games, they were also lucky in other ways. Mainly, the defense and special teams scored a ton of points, and stood out statistically. Thats the main reason Football Outsiders has us at 7-9, they just think we won't score as many points on defense and that would mean that those games that seemed close last year would already be out of reach.

I personally think this team can win somewhere between 9 and 11 games next year, maybe more if the Packers stay mostly injury free. The schedule is easier even though the division is probably tougher. The first teamers have looked good, but its still too early to determine how good the new 3-4 will be, especially since opposing teams are not game planning for it yet and given we played the Bills and the Brown.

I think the Bears could still be good. They have a pretty good running game and their offensive line has improved a lot. While the WRs suck, Olson is pretty good and obviously Cutler makes their offense better. And if we use the preseason argument for the Bears, their first team offense played well in their last game.

The questions with them becomes a) can their defense stay healthy b) can they get improved d-line play.

I would currently put the Packers ahead of them. I think the Packers offense is better than the Bears offense, the Bears defense right now is maybe better but not much better (if at all honestly) and the Bears have a better special teams. However, it would not surprise me at all if the Bears defense was a top ten defense and they just ran the ball effectively and were able to win the division.

The Vikings are tough to evaluate because of the whole Farve thing. The one advantage he has is that they don't have that many cold weather games. Obviously he has some huge disadvantages. Even though I was and am a TT supporter on the QB issue, I think had Brett signed with the Vikings in June, they would win the division. Its unclear now just because he missed so much training camp time. The Vikings have the potential to be great. Good offensive line, great running game, good defense. All they need is a game manager.

I think the biggest factors for the Packers will just be health and the play of the defense, but thats pretty obvious.

[ReasonablySober]

Using Football Outsiders formula, with Favre they win .2 more games than they would have with Jackson.

I think this ends up blowing up in Minnesota's face.

[Kerb Hohl]

I get what you're saying but I wouldn't call defensive points THAT lucky. The Bears, Ravens, and Bucs all made it to a Super Bowl from them. I agree we probably won't score as many but it is a skill that some defenses have.

Remember, in 2007 we won a game on a fumble recovery(Washington), won on a winning late long FG and special teams scores in a game Favre struggled(Philly), had 2 games with amazing defensive stops to keep us alive for Favre to make winning plays(SD and Denver). Most people forget about how we stuffed Denver from the 2 at the end of regulation and made them kick a FG to send it to overtime so that Favre could make that throw to Jennings. We did have an iffy one vs. the Bears which we might have lost on ref calls.

Now remember in 2008 where we had 2 games that were lost on missed FGs, one of which Rodgers played poorly in (Chicago and Minnesota away games), had a trash play call and defense kill us in another (Carolina), and close games not go our way on iffy calls (Atlanta, Tampa, Houston). Plus we lost by virtue of coin toss and missed FG on our end I believe (Tennessee).

Anyways, what I'm saying is I think we were a 10-11 win team in 2007 that lucked into 13 with health, schedule, and breaks all going our way. In 2008 we were a 9-10 win team that unlucked into 6 with those same factors going the other way.

This year we are a 9-11 win team and Raji/Clay Jr., health, the new D scheme, and a decent schedule could put it over the top.

[ReasonablySober]

I'll say it. If we only win nine games this season I'll be disappointed.