http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?story_id=13736
Hoopsworld wrote:Since the day he was drafted, Amar'e Stoudemire's NBA journey has been unpredictable - producing both incredible highs and disheartening lows. Throughout it all, Amar'e has been a bit of an enigma; even dating back to the day he was drafted...
While his talent and athleticism were never in question, Stoudemire's off-the-court baggage scared away many teams back in June of 2002. All told, there were eight organizations that passed on Amar'e on draft day - including the Nuggets, Cavs, and Clippers; who took Nikoloz Tskitishvili, Dajaun Wagner, and Chris Wilcox, respectively.
The Suns happily scooped up Stoudemire with the ninth overall pick, and the uber-athletic power forward paid immediate dividends. During his first few years in the league, Stoudemire displayed an awe-inspiring arsenal of post moves and an overall skill set that wowed players, coaches, executives, and fans throughout the basketball universe. By the Spring of 2005, with just three seasons of experience under his belt, Amar'e put on a performance for the ages during a showdown with Tim Duncan and the Spurs in the Western Conference Finals. After defeating the Grizzlies and the Mavericks in the first two rounds, Phoenix would eventually fall to the Spurs in five games. Still, no one who watched any portion of that series would deny that Amar'e was a one-man wrecking crew. Matched up against arguably the greatest power forward that ever lived, Amar'e was simply dominant. He scored at least 31 points in each game. He shot over 50% from the floor in every game. He shot 84% from the stripe. He averaged [AVERAGED!] 37 points and 10 rebounds. Keep in mind, he was being defended by arguably the greatest all-around power forward of all time in Tim Duncan. And the Spurs - who would go on to win the NBA title that season - were one of the best defensive teams of the entire decade.
The scariest part? Amar'e was just 22 at the time. Lofty comparisons were being made - it seemed the sky was the limit. Unfortunately, the hype was short lived.
The following preseason - in October of 2005 - team doctors discovered damage to Amar'e knee and he underwent mircorfracture surgery shortly thereafter...
However, after a longer recovery and some bumps in the road, Amar'e soon showed he was still an absolute force. During the 2006-2007 season, he played in all 82 games and averaged 20 points and 10 boards, earning a spot on the All-NBA First Team. The following season he scored over 25 points and grabbed over 9 boards a night.
However, last year was a bit of a step backwards for Amar'e, which cost him some fans (both in the stands and in the front office) in the Valley of the Sun.
This column by Scott Bordow of the East Valley Tribune does a good job of recapping the flip-flopping and immaturity. "To know Amar'e Stoudemire is to understand that what comes out of his mouth shouldn't be taken seriously... He all but campaigned for the firing of Coach Mike D'Antoni, then, feeling handcuffed by Terry Porter, longed for the offensive freedom D'Antoni gave him. He was ecstatic when the Suns traded for Shaquille O'Neal, saying the move would allow him to play power forward, his natural position. A few months later, he was complaining that there wasn't enough room in the lane for him to operate. And, of course, there are his constant proclamations about wanting to be "the guy" yet never wanting to be held accountable. Remember this quote from last season: "I'm not a captain. So you can't put too much of the blame on me. It's not my job to rally the troops and get everybody on board. It's the captain's job to do that." ... that's Amar'e. One minute he wants to stay in Phoenix, the next he's talking up New York and then he's rhapsodizing about playing alongside Kobe Bryant."
And, in addition to the attitude issues, Amar'e also endured another serious injury late last season - a detached retina. As a result of the surgery to repair his eye, Amar'e was forced to spend 22 hours a day on his stomach to help drain the fluid buildup. (Amar'e seems to have made a fine recovery and began playing pick up ball this week.)
Nonetheless, despite the flaws, Amar'e obviously has plenty of supporters as well. The fact of the matter is that in a league where every GM is always desperately searching for a decent big man, STAT is amongst the cream of the crop. While he rarely performs up to his potential on the defensive end of the floor, he is still just 26 and can score and board with the best the NBA has to offer. When healthy and motivated, he is arguably as good as any big man in the Association.
Still, the question remains: how much is Amar'e worth? He is set to make $16.4 million next season, and then has a player option at $17.7 million for 2010-2011.
Assuming he opts out next summer (remember how we all 'assumed' Carlos Boozer was going to opt out also), Amar'e would be giving up nearly $18 million in guaranteed money the following season. Thus, he would obviously seek max, or at least near-max money, upon signing his next contract.
Plus, we have to factor in the issues of the deteriorating economy in this equation; especially considering that the Suns franchise has been losing money, and their owner Robert Sarver's main source of income, his bank business, was/is reportedly in dire straights. Earlier this offseason, the Suns sold off Shaq O'Neal to the Cavs in exchange for Ben Wallace (whose contract they promptly bought out) and Sasha Pavlovic (another expiring contract they may eat.)
With all that as the backdrop - you can see why Amar'e himself has put the odds of him staying in Phoenix long term at "50-50."
As a result, the trade rumors, which first surfaced last February at the trade deadline, have continued to pick up steam.
Thus, we decided to have some fun with the ESPN Trade Machine and see what deals we could come up with that would make some semblance of sense for both the Suns and a potential trade partner.
As with previous incarnations of this "Let's Trade..." series, we will take a second to issue the following disclaimer: "None of these deals are currently being discussed (at least to my knowledge), and I've got no evidence that any of these ever were discussed or will be discussed. They're just hypothetical, doing their best to answer the question: What is a fair trade for Amar'e Stoudemire?"
With that out of the way - let's throw some ideas out there:
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1) New York Knicks send: Jordan Hill ($2.5 million in first year of rookie contract), Cuttino Mobley ($9.5 million expiring contract – insured), Darko Milicic (7.5 million expiring contract), 2010 second-round pick, and $3 million cash – to Phoenix in exchange for Amar'e Stoudemire and Alando Tucker.
If the Suns decide they can not afford or do not want to re-sign Amar'e to the max-contract he is seeking, or Amar'e decides he does not want to spend the prime of his career in Phoenix, Suns management will be in a bind. Whenever you trade a superstar, you very, very rarely get equal value in return. More often than not, you get cents back on your dollar.
However, if Phoenix doesn't trade him this season, they risk losing him via free-agency without getting anything at all in return. Other teams understand this, which limits the Suns' bargaining power. Moreover, a team that trades for Amar'e has to acknowledge that he may very well be a rental player who can skip town in July of 2010, so they would be hesitant to mortgage the future for him. The one advantage the team that acquired Stoudemire would have would be possession of his 'Bird Rights.' But, that also means the team trading for Amar'e would have to be convinced that he is worth the $100 million price tag Amar'e agent will put on the table. Otherwise, it would make no sense to give up assets to acquire him. Clearly it is a complicated state of affairs.
In this particular trade scenario, the Knicks would be acquiring Stoudemire to hedge their bets in case they couldn't land LeBron or Wade (two years older than Amar'e), or some other such stud. By trading for Amar'e, they would have a leg up on locking him into a long-term deal. The pipe dream would be landing Amar'e and somehow moving Jared Jefferies' ($6.9 million) and/or Eddy Curry's ($11.3 million) cap-killing contracts off the books by next summer, thus freeing up enough cap space to retain Amar'e AND bring in another elite, high-priced FA to team up with STAT - along with a supporting cast consisting of Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari, and possibly a Ramon Sessions? Again, this remains extremely unlikely, but would constitute a best-case scenario for New York.
As far as the Suns are concerned, if they were forced to move Amar'e (via a trade-demand?), or internally decided that either they could not afford Amar'e or he simply wasn't worth the contract he will be demanding, they would be looking for some combination of: cheap prospects with promise, expiring contracts, cash, and draft picks (which would possibly be later sold for a cash).
In this proposed deal with the Knicks, the Suns would be receiving a 2009 lottery pick in Hill - who some draftniks labeled a "poor-man's Stoudemire." They would also be getting Darko Milicic, who has a big expiring contract, but could also provide some size up front. And the expiring contract that could be especially appealing to Phoenix (and Robert Sarver) is that of Cuttino Mobley. Last year, much was written and discussed about how valuable Raef LaFrentz's expiring pact was due solely because Raef had retired for medical reasons and insurance was going to pick up 80% of the tab. So, although Mobley will earn $9.5 million next season, $7.6 million of that total will be picked up by insurance - Phoenix would only owe $1.9 million, which would represent a big savings. In addition, the $3 million in hard cash (the maximum allowable amount) would help sweeten the deal.
Of course the Suns would take a big step back talent wise, but they would have a cheap, young big in Jordan Hill to replace Amar'e in the lineup next season and would have the money they would have spent on Amar'e to spend on another free-agent; or they could just pocket the cash, if they so chose.
One other option between the Knicks and Suns: Larry Hughes ($13.7 million expiring contract), Jordan Hill, and cash for Amar'e
But this would probably be less desirable from the Phoenix end because they don't have any room on the roster or any need for Hughes (they would have to find a way to move Jason Richardson's massive money), and it doesn't contain Mobley's contract.
And, yes, the Suns would prefer to get David Lee involved in any deal, but there are a couple of issues there: 1) Lee's base-year compensation status limits what the Knicks can take back in return 2)Lee is going to be looking for $10-$12 million a season next summer, which would make him staying in Phoenix very unlikely.
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2) Minnesota Timberwolves send Al Jefferson (4 years and $54 million left on his contract) and Brian Cardinal ($6.8 million expiring contract) – to Phoenix in exchange for Amar'e Stoudemire and Jared Dudley
A possible Big Al for Amar'e swap made headlines back in mid-June when Marc J. Spears of the Boston Globe reported the offer of Amar'e for Jefferson and the #6 overall pick had been put on the table. However, Spears later wrote that the Timberwolves had quickly rejected the offer.
And we can safely assume that Minnesota would not be any more inclined to pull the trigger on a similar trade right now, even if Phoenix didn't ask for a draft pick. Even if the T-Wolves wanted to move Jefferson (which they don't), would they have any confidence that Amar'e would chose to re-sign in Minnesota?
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3) Chicago Bulls send Tyrus Thomas ($4.7 million for 2009-2010), John Salmons (two years and $11.2 million left on current contract), and Jerome James ($6.6 million expiring contract), -- To Phoenix in exchange for Amar'e Stoudemire, Jared Dudley, and a 2010 second-round pick
Rumors of Amar'e getting traded to Chicago have made the rounds over the last few months, probably because a potential swap between these two franchises could end up making sense for both parties (and the wheels could be greased by the friendly relationship between Suns GM Steve Kerr and Chicago head coach Vinny Del Negro - whose relationship dates back many years through San Antonio and Phoenix).
The Bulls have a solid supporting cast in place surrounding rising superstar PG Derrick Rose. Luol Deng has shown flashes of greatness; Kirk Hinrich is a tough defender and terrific complementary piece; they have two young budding bigs in Thomas and Joakim Noah; Salmons played very well last year after coming over from Sacramento; and Brad Miller is an above-average NBA center.
However, what the Bulls lack is a dominant low-post presence that can be a beast on the block and pour in points in the paint. And that is why Amar'e would be so intriguing to Chicago. Pairing him with Derrick Rose would make for a dangerous tag-team running up and down the United Center floor. But would Chicago be willing to pony up the paper required to ink Stoudemire to a long-term contract? Well, they did clear future cap space by letting Ben Gordon walk via free-agency. And if they plan to keep Ty Thomas in the fold, they will have to give him a sizable extension next summer (Thomas' qualifying offer for the 2010-2011 season is $6.3 million.) The starting lineup could look like this: Rose, Hinrich, Deng, Amar'e, and Miller - with Noah backing up both the 4 and 5, Pargo backing up both guard spots, and rookies Taj Gibson and James Johnson seeing minutes off the bench as well.
For the Suns, they would exchange Stoudemire for a young high-flier in Thomas who would be a great fit in the Suns' high-octane, up-tempo offense. Thomas has been somewhat inconsistent over the first few years of his NBA career, but he is also undeniably talented and has a skill-set that would mesh well with Nash and company. Also, although Phoenix has plenty of swingmen on their roster, and Salmons contracts extends into 2011, Salmons is locked into a relatively affordable contract and he could be used a trade chip down the line. The Suns like Dudley, but would need to make the salaries match.
Anther possible permutation would be a combination of Ty Thomas and Brad Miller's expiring contract for Amar'e and Louis Amundson...
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4) The Miami HEAT send Michael Beasley ($4.6 million – second year of rookie contract), Udonis Haslem ($7.1 million expiring contract), James Jones (team option next summer) and $1 million in cash -- To Phoenix in exchange for Amar'e Stoudemire.
This one is interesting as well. Beasley's offseason issues have certainly raised some more red flags, but he is still young, he rookie contract is affordable, and he certainly does possess the talent to develop into NBA all-star. Would Phoenix be willing to roll the dice and see if they could turn him around? The upside is enticing; but the downside is just as scary.
In Haslem they would be getting a rock solid role-player whose contract comes off the books next summer. And Jones would definitely be released next summer (if his option was picked up, he would be paid $14.3 million from 2010 thru 2013), clearing nearly $5 million more. The question is how comfortable they feel gambling on Beasley.
For Miami, the deal would provide an immediate upgrade and (most importantly) prove to Dwyane Wade that the HEAT are serious about surrounding him with top-notch talent, even if it costs them a pretty penny. Pat Riley was never sold on Beasley to begin with (word is he wanted to draft O.J. Mayo), and would presumably like the opportunity to replace Beasley with an established stud like Amar'e. Moreover, Amar'e has roots in Florida - he attended high school just three hours north of Miami. Would the promise of playing alongside D Wade on South Beach during his prime be enough to convince Stoudemire to give the HEAT a hometown discount?
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5) Golden State Warriors send Andris Biedrins (5 years and $45 million left on his contract), Brandan Wright ($2.7 million in third year of rookie contract), Speedy Claxton ($5.2 million expiring contract) -- To Phoenix in exchange for Amar'e Stoudemire
The Warriors and Suns were allegedly discussing a draft deal with the above principals involved back in June; however Golden State purportedly squashed the deal when Phoenix insisted that Warriors include #7 overall pick, Stephen Curry. It was also reported that Amar'e clearly stated he would prefer not to land in the Bay Area.
Would these two organizations re-engage in discussions at February's trade deadline? We shall see... The Warriors up-tempo system is similar to Mike D'Antoni's approach which suited Stoudemire so well. But if Amar'e doesn't give the Warriors some sort of assurance he'd like to stay in Golden State, they wouldn't have interest in a rental.
And it is doubtful as to whether the Suns would be keen on taking back Biedrins, who has holes in his game and is owed $9 million per season through 2014.
So what trade would you do?
Lets see what he can do this season bc I think he is going to be a beast and show he is worth max $$$. Next, the ball is in his court. If a rumor comes up, he will say he will not resign if he does not like the deal. Plus, he can opt out. So none of these are going to happen because they all are crappy trades. I like Al, but he does not fit, I have always hate the Chi-town trade, same with Mia and NYK. Hill is soft and is not going to amount to much, especially compared to amare. I think if the suns drag their feet and or the offer is low, Amare will walk. I would not blame him if he does by the way this team and its fans have treated him the last two years. pathetic.
