Patience
With the exception of the Gary Denbo era (when he managed to coax patience out of a host of players, while utterly destroying their swings), the Jays have been a fairly swing-happy team in recent years...though they're only two points lower than the AL average in OBP - BA (a decent though simplistic measure of patience) at +67, that owes largely to the presence of two terrific walk-drawers in Scutaro and Overbay. The minor league teams are all over the place. The 'patience' numbers on a league-by-league basis:
OBP - BA
AAA
Reno: +79
Oklahoma City: +79
Portland: +78
New Orleans: +73
Colorado Springs: +71
Omaha: +71
Tacoma: +70
Sacramento: +70
Salt Lake: +69
Albuquerque: +67
Nashville: +67
Iowa: +66
Memphis: +64
Las Vegas: +63
Fresno: +62
Round Rock: +55
It's worth noting that the 51s are leading the league in OPS regardless, though they do play in an enclosed postage stamp. They strike out very little, as well, indicative of a teamwide focus on jumping on early pitches and hitting them the 50 feet necessary to clear the fences at Cashman Field. Also, because organizational philosophies have quite an effect on the ages of AAA teams, you often have groups of wily vets competing against a bunch of young hackers. Las Vegas, though hardly filled to the brim with top prospects, is on the lower end of the age range.
AA
New Hampshire: +85
Portland: +84
Akron: +83
Erie: +76
Altoona: +76
Binghampton: +74
New Britain: +73
Reading; +71
Bowie: +71
Trenton: +71
Harrisburg: +70
Connecticut: +65
New Hampshire is the anti-Las Vegas...some very patient hitters (Jeroloman, Cooper, Mastroianni, Donovan, and others), but no one that can actually hit. Basically, it's where many of our 'advanced college bats' in years past have stalled out, at least temporarily. They also strike out more than average, though they aren't at the top of the league; unlike Las Vegas, again, a bunch of guys that loves them some deep counts.
High-A
Dunedin: +77
St. Lucie: +77
Jupiter: +76
Fort Myers: +76
Pam Beach: +75
Charlotte: +74
Tampa: +72
Brevard County: +66
Lakeland: +65
Clearwater: +64
Daytona: +61
Sarasota: +54
Something of a surprise, given that the Dunedin team is quite young, but this team knows its way around a walk...the 2007 crew (Tolisano, Jackson, Mastro again, even Ahrens and Sierra) are decent-to-good at working the count. And as the next post'll detail, pretty solid power hitters. Their collective Achilles heel: a total inability to make contact with baseballs, leading to a league-high strikeout count.
Low-A
Fort Wayne: +99
Wisconsin: +84
Kane County: +79
Quad Cities: +79
Cedar Rapids: +78
Clinton: +74
Great Lakes: +72
West Michigan: +71
Beloit: +71
South Bend: +66
Burlington: +64
Dayton: +63
Lansing: +63
Peoria: +60
...and then there's Lansing. Other than Brian Van Kirk (a 24 year old non-prospect) and Pastornicky (since elevated) this team simply doesn't like looking at pitches; second-last in the Midwest in walks, and tops in strikeouts, which is a combination that requires effort. Why? I'm not entirely sure, though there are some definite free-swingers on the roster...AJ Jiminez and Balbino Fuenmayor alone probably knock the numbers down by a couple percent. It also bears noting that the Dunedin team, largely comprised of guys who played in Lansing last year, have seen a fairly large uptick in their OBP spread despite facing better pitching.
Short-season
Vermont: +87
Mahoning Valley: +86
Brooklyn: +83
State College: +80
Lowell: +79
Aberdeen: +79
Oneonta: +74
Staten Island: +73
Batavia: +72
Tri-City: 72
Auburn: +71
Jamestown: +66
Hudson Valley: +64
Williamsport: +58
Somewhat more advanced college bats vs. nervous first-time professional pitchers seems to lead to plenty of walks. Or perhaps it's the fact that, their averages and power plunging after swapping aluminum for wood, hitters are taking far more pitches than before. Or whatever. Because this team is comprised largely of the Jays' most-recent picks, it along with the GCL team could be indicative of where the Jays are trending...and like Lansing, Auburn is high-K, low-BB.
Rookie ball
Marlins: +96
Yankees: +89
Astros: +86
Mets: +85
Cardinals: +85
Nationals: +82
Orioles: +82
Phillies: +79
Blue Jays: +79
Twins: +74
Pirates: +73
Red Sox: +73
Braves: +69
Tigers: +67
Reds: +64
Rays: +63
As you can see, the GCL tends to feature plenty of young arms who can't find the strike zone. The GCL Jays are basically mid-pack...but again, they strike out more than anyone else in the league.
What can we take away? Whether it's the team's drafting philosophy, the youth in our low minors, or a coaching staff at those levels that doesn't bat an eye if a guy flails at an ankle-high curveball twenty times in a row, at all levels below AA a pretty clear trend emerges: aggressive -- often overly so -- hitters who end up catching air more often than just about any other organization.
Personally, I might lean towards the third explanation...in a couple interviews earlier in the season, coaches or instructors at the lower levels spoke of the fact that they've encountered more than a little resistance when attempting to alter the approaches (whether it's plate discipline or swings) of our kids in Dunedin and Lansing. Though that's hardly uncommon when you're dealing with players a year or two out of high school, it's on the coaches as much as on the players...plenty of teams have headstrong youngsters, it's the successful ones that are able to, y'know, coach them.
Next on the docket: power. The kids swing and miss constantly...but does the ball go anywhere when they make contact?
