LeBron in Boston is as likely as LeBron in most other towns

[stretch]

the big question next summer: where could LeBron james go?

Well, a lot of theories have been thrown around. Some cities are plausible. others less so, but they've got great theories behind them (like that old Detroit one from yahoo nba, citing incredible, genunine and close connections between Dumars and LeBron).

I'd venture that Boston is just as feasible as any potential LeBron destination. This will come across as crazy to most non-Celtics fans.

1. For one, they don't understand neither the Celtics management nor Pierce's commitment to the club. It's entirely possible that Pierce opts out to take less (which most don't understand), and before Rondo is re-signed, a superstar player is signed to the max. After that, the Celtics could re-up Pierce and Allen for less money and sign Rondo. But then again, with Ainge of the philosophy that you need 5 good players (and not necessarily a pure point guard like CP3 or Rondo), if the C's somehow signed someone like JJ or Wade or Bron, they might not pursue Rondo.


2. Most non-Celtics fans hate the Celtics. And most of them have a sort of inertia in their heads and overlook the Celts because of their age (especially with regards to KG and Sheed). That will color most of their perspective. We can't convince them otherwise, until they actually see just how dominant the Celtics are this season. nevertheless, what they're probably unaware of (furthermore) are two things:

2 a) LeBron loves KG. Always has and always will. In fact, besides Jordan, KG is the player LeBron admires most. He has said this repeatedly in the public domain. There are a number of telling examples. e.g. during the all-star game, when Scoop Jackson asked random players who they'd want to be besides themselves, most said LeBron (like TD). But LeBron thought about it for a while, and then declared: KG. He loves the ticket's game, personality, everything.

2 b) LeBron's respect for history and tradition. Of course most players know about NBA history, especially NBA superstars. Dwight, Wade, et. al - we've seen evidence that they're well versed in NBA history. But seldom do you find players as versed in Celtics history as they might be in say, Lakers or Bulls history. That's not the case with leBron. Regular readers of the Herald/Globe/projo since 2005 will recognize off the bat LeBron's unique knowledge of Celtics history. Do a literature review. you'll find the references, the respect for the Celtics' tradition, what it means to play against the Celtics, what it means for him and Pierce to replicate Dominique/Bird (he went on about that last one!).


So you can throw any city out there that LeBron could want to join: NY, NJ, Chicago, LA, whatever...
But it's just as feasible that he might join Boston. Seeing Marquis Daniels talk this week about the unprecedented opportunity of playing (for 6 million less) with KG/Sheed and Pierce/Allen makes you wonder. Why wouldn't Bron want to join the NBA's best frontline (Sheed/KG/Baby/Perkins/Shelden should be together for at least two years)? And if PP/Allen give him guarantees...

If the Celtics win the title this coming season, and beat the Cavs along the way... you never know, next summer, what might happen.


crazier things have happened, fellow celtics fans..
like Kevin Garnett becoming a Boston Celtic...



P.S.: http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?page=OffseasonPredictions09-LeBronFuture
You might have seen this. most fans on the internet chalked it off as some random clown. Well, author Royce Webb won't confirm it publicly, but you may be interested to learn that the 1 vote for Boston comes from one of the most reputed names among the voters.

[stretch]

how's that for something to talk about, till training camp.

[Hemingway]

While I agree with the premise I disagree with the details.

I will go further and say that landing LBJ is option number 1. THink about it. Why wouldn't it be? He is so good and so poised to dominate for the next decade. I don't think there is any way we get him and keep everyone. I think a trade of a resigned Rondo and something else, maybe Ray would have to go down to get him.

No one wants to hearthis on the general board but there are a few reasons LBJ in Boston makes some sense. First off, of all the teams in the league we could stand to lose a few star players and still be much better than the Cavs minus LBJ. Another reason is Boston is a big market. I think his nike deal would go up.

The main reason I think it will not happen is that LBJ would prove nothing by winning here. Say we traded Pierce and Rondo and picks or other filler for LBJ and some bad contracts; winning a title on a team that just won one doesn;t prove a whole lot.

All that said, I hope and feel vary confident that Ainge will do everything he can to get LBJ. I mean he would be worth trading what ever it took to get him. Just by the way trades work, no matter what the cost we'd still have 2 or 3 of our starters intact and would be the top free agent destination if we could offer a starting spot to play with LBJ.

[ss1986v2]

doing this quick, so forgive me if i forget to carry the two somewhere:

garnett 18.8
wallace 6.3
perkins 4.9
davis 2.5
rondo 6.3 (cap hold)
3.5 mil in roster charges

total 42.3

assuming a cap of 55 mil, that leaves just under 13 mil in space. so even if they decline the option on giddens, and renounce everyone (daniels, walker, williams, house, allen, and pierce), the celtics dont have enough to offer a max contract. and if allen and pierce are signed on at the cheap, then that only further cuts into that figure.

now if they can shed some more salary (dump davis/perk), convince james to sign at less than the max, and get pierce and allen to sign for the vet min, then sure, its possible.

[stretch]

But the cap won't be 55 million. It's not going to go down next year.
There's been too much analysis done of this. Celticsblog researched this and had a great piece.

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine
According to ESPN (see the link above), with a 79.2 million dollar payroll this upcoming season (includes Quisy), we are 20.5 million above the cap.

That implies that the cap this season is 58 million.
Further research reveals that it is "at least" 58 million.

And are you sure about the 6.3 m cap hold on Rondo (who earned 2 mill). Shouldn't the hold be more around 4?

If you subtract: TA, Scal, House, Ray, and assume PP opts out, that subtracts 47 million!
That leaves us at 33 million, or 24 million under the cap (with KG/Sheed/Perk/Baby/Walker).

Couldn't we still sign a max contract, while retaining the ability to re-up Allen/Pierce (assuming they take very little money, which you could imagine PP doing - with his loyalty and debt to the franchise), and then re-sign Rondo?

[Dave_From_NB]

The Daniels situation isn't similar at all. Daniels understands that a good season on a relevant team could land him a great contract and perhaps someone will overpay as they did with Posey, or more likely with Lewis. Lebron is going to get a max contract, he's not playing for his next contract, which is what Daniels is doing.

Where would KG, PP, LJ, RA all play? I don't think Paul has the quickness for SG any longer, are you implying he should opt out of his contract so he can come off the bench to sub for Lebron? I just don't think it's realistic to think PP leaves millions on the table to come off the bench.

Perhaps Lebron in Boston is as likely as all the teams NOT Cleveland, NYK, NJN, but that still puts him at 1% or lower. You can't say it could never happen, but realistically there is no way it is happening IMO.

[chakdaddy]

Couldn't we still sign a max contract, while retaining the ability to re-up Allen/Pierce (assuming they take very little money, which you could imagine PP doing - with his loyalty and debt to the franchise), and then re-sign Rondo?

If by very little money you mean veteran minimum, sure.

I don't think the cap would allow any 'minimum 1 year contract with wink wink deal do follow' shenanigans to get around the cap hold either.

I guess Pierce and Ray could be allowed to become unrestricted, then we could renounce them at the moment LeBron agrees, then try to get them to come back cheap.

[hairybyrd]

If it's not the Cavs, it's the Knicks because Lebron's stated goal has always been "billionaire status." Signing with Cleveland fulfills a social goal of loyalty while signing with New York fulfills an economic goal of sustaining iconic status and doing it on the biggest stage. Anyone who thinks differently doesn't understand society/economics/socioeconomics/basketball culture/or some combination of the aforementioned. The idea of Lebron signing with Boston fulfills the goals of biased Celtics fans and little else. IF - and it's a big if - Lebron signs with Boston that would mean that Pierce and Allen would have to take HUGE pay cuts or be traded. Pierce WILL retire a Celtic and Garnett WILL be on the books beyond 2010 FOR $20 Million. Where's the money? I'll stack the odds at 100-1 of this actually happening.

If you want a free agent in 2010 be a little more realistic, MAYBE Joe Johnson but, Lebron? That is delusional.

[chakdaddy]

If it's not the Cavs, it's the Knicks because Lebron's stated goal has always been "billionaire status." Signing with Cleveland fulfills a social goal of loyalty while signing with New York fulfills an economic goal of sustaining iconic status and doing it on the biggest stage.

He's already an icon, on the biggest stage - the NBA. Playing on a bad team in NY, he would be on a smaller stage than he would on a contender in Cleveland.

LeBron is already too big for the city he plays in to matter.

[Fencer reregistered]

The only way this happens is for Lebron to force the Cavs' hand.

But what would it take in trade to keep them from calling his bluff and saying "Fine, go to the Knicks or Nets; you won't win there anyway?"

Rondo and Perk are our only major young assets ...

[DEEP3CL]

Well stretch first off Paul is taking a close to max deal, I really don't know the Celtics cap situation an what not. But I'll say this... if it's a market that's not the size of NY or LA, that a guy like LeBron can still make mad money in it's Boston. Simply because of the tradition and all.

But I definitely agree with Fence, the only real way it happens is if LJ forces their hand, but now you're talking trades and all. It's going to take assets big time.

BTW, you can not like the Celtics and still have an objective conversation about them. At least I can, hate has nothing to do with it for me. It's about the topic at hand.

[ss1986v2]

But the cap won't be 55 million. It's not going to go down next year.
There's been too much analysis done of this. Celticsblog researched this and had a great piece.

According to ESPN (see the link above), with a 79.2 million dollar payroll this upcoming season (includes Quisy), we are 20.5 million above the cap.

That implies that the cap this season is 58 million.
Further research reveals that it is "at least" 58 million.

just for the record, the salary cap this season is 57.7 mil.

and can i get a link to the celticsblog take. because ive heard no one saying the cap wont go down next season (at least some amount). and this is all coming from the nba itself:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=4312837

now their outlook is rather pessimistic (between 50.4 and 53.6), so i generally use the more nbpa friendly number of 55 mil (being only a 2.7 mil drop from this year).

And are you sure about the 6.3 m cap hold on Rondo (who earned 2 mill). Shouldn't the hold be more around 4?

again, i did this quickly last night, but looking at larry coon give me this:

Larry Bird, following the fourth season of his rookie scale contract - Below the average salary - 300% of his previous salary

correct me if im wrong, but rondo would be a larry bird free agent, coming off the 4th year of his rookie contract, and his last salary would be below the league average salary, no? that means his cap hold is 3x his last years salary (2.1 mil).

Couldn't we still sign a max contract, while retaining the ability to re-up Allen/Pierce (assuming they take very little money, which you could imagine PP doing - with his loyalty and debt to the franchise), and then re-sign Rondo?

even if we assume no drop in the cap, that only leaves the celtics with a bit over 15 mil in cap space (your projection of 24 mil doesnt factor in rondo or the min roster charges). so even then, the celtics are going to have to dump salary, get lebron to sign for less than the max, or get allen and pierce to sign on for the vet min, or its all just a pipe dream.

[threrf23]

I have never bought that the cap would decline to anywhere around 50 mil or so. It might decline but my guess has been that the league was simply trying to discourage teams for holding out this offseason for a chance at landing a star next season.

If Lebron is a truly realistic possibility, then I'd say we should shop Perk around this coming season. PP'd be willing (IMO) to sign for cheap and we could then retain full bird rights the following offseason. Ray, who knows.

That said, I doubt Lebron is a possibility. The Cavs have been improving year by year, had a really solid offseason, and will have enough cap space to make big moves next offseason...particularly if Lebron is willing to accept in the 12-13 mil range they will be able to afford a 2nd max player to complement Lebron and a bunch of solid role players. Big Z expires this offseason but I'd imagine he'd be willing to take a large home team discount, been in Cleveland all his career and is anxious for a title.

I really don't see Lebron going anywhere, and if he does I am assuming that Jay-Z has gotten into his head, in which case he's still not coming to Boston. And you guys remember PP spitting in his face years back? And you guys remember us being the Cavs' enemies two seasons straight?

[The Skyhook]

Lebron to Boston would be awesome for the L.A. /Boston rivalry. Not only do you get the two teams but you get Kobe vs Lebron

[Andrew McCeltic]

I think it's appropriate that the author of this thread is a "stretch"

The Nets, although no longer Brooklyn bound, really have in some respects an ideal situation for a player like Lebron to join- Harris, Lee, Yi, Lopez + Lebron and whoever else they can get with their cap room (Joe Johnson?)- if Yi blows up this season, it'd be tempting. Unlikely, but tempting- the same way Kobe entertained joining the Clippers a few seasons back when they had good young talent at every position but the 2.

[Scorpion King]

When Pigs fly... Lebron stays in CLE which is most likely case or either goes to NYC...