The state of Thunder basketball...

[dre_1614]

PG: Russell Westbrook/Shaun Livingston/Kevin Ollie
SG: Thabo Sefolosha/James Harden
SF: Kevin Durant
PF: Jeff Green/DJ White/Serge Ibaka
C: Nenad Krstic/Nick Collison/Etan Thomas/Byron Mullens

We have 5 guys I consider "core" meaning guys I think will be very important in our future success. They are Westbrook, Harden, Sefolosha, Durant, Green.

Westbrook - I think he is going to end up being a Chauncey Billups type of player once he gets more playing time and the game slows down for him, he is also going to have a similar role IMO. A guy who brings the ball up and gets the team in the offense sets. No amazing passes but just to get us in our sets. He also will be able to score in important parts of the game, and its this part which I think is going to be his biggest contribution. Drive and kick or dive and layup will be his game. We now have 2 very good spot up shooters(Durant, Harden). If he can improve his shot to where its respectable then he will be incredibly hard to defend. He is a scorer who likes to pass lets put it that way. On defense I think he can become a ferocious pest. It might take some time to get both his offense and defense working together but he can be a 1st team all-defense.

Harden - I love his game; slow tempo, methodical, and smooth. He is a thinker out on the floor. I see him being similar to Ginobli except he is stronger, and not quite as athletic. He is going to make his living on offense as a spot up shooter, a drive and kick, or drive and layup. Is going to be a very efficient player down the road. On defense I haven't seen much since he played a lot of zone, but I like his anticipation, and his hands they are quick. He will probably be a above average defender in time. Athleticism holds him back from being an elite defender.

Sefolosha - Is our Bruce Bowen. Not nearly as physical but has great technique, great hustle, and great lateral and vertical ability to defend the elite scorers in the NBA. I have heard he has improved his outside shot this off-season. If he can become a respectable shooter from the outside then it will be hard to keep him off the floor.

Durant - We all know he is a stone cold shooter. Catch and shoot he is deadly and is going to get even better which is scary. I'm guessing in a few years(lets say 23 years old) he will have a solid post game to go along with his shooting. His pull up game is a work in progress and I doubt its going to be a strength of his. However a deadly spot up shooter, and solid post game with his length is a top 3 offense player in the league. His passing has come a long way since his first game as a rookie. He is still developing this and IMO I think he will be a good passer by the time he is matured as a player. he is a bad defender mainly because his effort level leaves a lot to be desired, and he is weak. He will get stronger, and his effort level will get better no question. He will at worst be a average defender, and if he puts in the work to get stronger and the effort on a daily basis, he can be a elite defender. A more perimeter oriented Garnett so to speak. I expect him to be a top 2 player in the NBA in his prime, and win multiple MVP awards. Kid is just too good of a person and player not to be great.

Green - Our glue guy. Everyone calls him Uncle Jeff; he is level headed, smart, tough, and a gym rat. He reminds me of a much bigger Derrick Rose. Not in terms of playing style, but in their mindset and personality. Soft spoken, humble, lives and breathes basketball, worker, poise, level headed. He is our PF/SF for the next 15 years you can put it in the bank. He is everything Presti looks for in a player. Jordan had Pippen, well Durant has Green.

If those 5 guys I mentioned develop in to players we all envision them to be then this organization will be successful. If other guys such as Ibaka/Livingston/White/Mullens develop into players we envision them to become then its going to be a real fun ride.

I predict this season we wont make the playoffs but will get close. I see us with around 40-42 wins this year. Our future is very bright however and this season even if we don't make the playoffs, if our guys develop and it shows out on the court it will be a success IMO. We are just to young to contend.

Next year we will see the dividends of our early struggles pay off.

[wizkid27]

Really nice writeup man. Thanks a lot for sharing

I agree for the most part, but here are the things I don't know about (for conversation's sake):

-Weaver is missing from the depth chart

-It'll be interesting to see who ends up starting at the 2, I think Thabo is a better fit and Harden gives us a better look off of the bench, but Harden may be too key of a piece to keep out of the starting lineup

-Harden - You referenced Harden's lack of athletic ability a couple of times and that does seem to show in his game. I wonder if that has to do with just the way that he looks though, his combine numbers would indicate that he is really a very good athlete.

-In 15 years Jeff Green will be dang near 40, I don't see him being a high level player past 33 or so. Not because he relies on athleticism, but because (as of now) it's not like he has the transcendent level of skill and drive that the guys who have SUCCESSFULLY played into their really late 30s have

-33 to 35 wins - I think this would be a huge leap. I, of course, hope that they get to 40 or more but I'm just not really sure if this will happen. I don't see enough improvement from last year (adding Harden and whatever internal development) to get us that many more wins. Also, I think that the degradation of the Western conference has been overstated (Suns, Jazz, Mavs, etc. will still be better than us overall).

[slick_watts]

The Westbrook / Billups comparison has been cropping up a bit but I just don't really see it. Billups' career path and progression is really atypical. I think Westbrook has a lot of similarities to Devin Harris. Both are athletic, slashing guards who struggle shooting high percentage from long range. Offensively, I think Westbrook had his strongest games when he got to the line a bunch, and again that's consistent with how Harris operated last season. Hopefully, Westbrook can develop his PG skills a bit and he'll be right where Harris currently is in no time, which isn't a bad thing. Obviously, if he can find a shot it'd be great..

I agree with both of you that Harden should come off the bench.

I still think Kevin Durant's biggest improvement in the next couple years will be on defense. He's such a good shooter, I don't think he even needs a post game right now. It might even hinder him..

Jeff Green will be auditioning for a fixture position at PF this year. I've read in some places he's put on some weight and is more prepared to play PF this season, and I hope so.

[wiff]

About time there is a new thread in here.

Westbrook's game reminds me of DWade's including the turnovers. Judging from Summer league it looks like Russell has been working on his jumper. Now if he can simply control the ball he will be a fine player. I expect Westbrook to mature into a very nice player that will compliment Harden very well in the back court.

Speaking of Harden, as Wiz mentioned his combine numbers were great. Only one other guy had better athletic numbers and that was DeRozan and he didn't beat him by much. Harden just doesn't rely on his athleticism to beat his man. He has sneaky hops kind of like Roy.

I think Harden comes off the bench too. I said the same thing back in June.

viewtopic.php?f=334&t=918540

if the roster remains the same i can't imagine harden not starting. he'd have to really struggle.

Of course looks like slick is on both sides of the fence again. I guess Ibaka won't have a jumper again come October.

I think Thabo, Ibaka, Mullens, White, Livvy, and Weaver all have a role to play on this team unless a big trade comes along and moves one of the core guys, and one or two of these guys are added in the trade. But I still think in three years you will see Durant and Green in the front court together. Unless White or Ibaka go nuts and out plays Green. Which wouldn't be a bad thing because Green as a 6th would mean the Thunder would be really deep.

I see 35 wins with a dark horses shot at catching lightening in a bottle and making the 8th seed.

[slick_watts]

I think Harden comes off the bench too. I said the same thing back in June.

viewtopic.php?f=334&t=918540

if the roster remains the same i can't imagine harden not starting. he'd have to really struggle.

Of course looks like slick is on both sides of the fence again. I guess Ibaka won't have a jumper again come October.

The roster did not remain the same, and that post was made before Summer League, and Brooks has made some comments that suggest to me that Sefolosha will have the starting job to lose. I've thought that Sefolosha should start since seeing Harden (and Westbrook) in action in Orlando / Vegas. I think I stated as much in my roster analysis.

Also didn't Ibaka shoot <40% in Vegas..?

[wizkid27]

Harden vs Thabo should be an interesting on-going battle. They are such different players that it is crazy. If Westbrook has a half-way decent 3 point shot this season, then Thabo is a great fit with Green/Westbrook/Durant. If Westbrook still can't draw a defender out to the 3 pt line, then Harden needs to be in the starting lineup. If we need Harden starting, I would rather fix the lack of bench scoring through creative substitution patterns than benching him.

[wiff]

Also didn't Ibaka shoot <40% in Vegas..?

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