Wiz trade 5th pick to Minnesota

[closg00]

My main point is that Ricky Rubio is worth more than the 5th pick in a weak draft. I think the Wizards could have gotten a better deal if they waited until draft night to trade the pick.

I think if you read through this thread, you'll see that all of your points were also made by Wiz -peeps on the board.

[JWizmentality]

My main point is that Ricky Rubio is worth more than the 5th pick in a weak draft. I think the Wizards could have gotten a better deal if they waited until draft night to trade the pick.

How so? Rubio > Miller + Foye. Really think so? I'll wait to see him play an NBA game this upcoming season....oh $h!t wait...maybe next year....or the year after that maybe, probably....perhaps. Tell ya what, I'll jot it down in my blackberry and you rememeber to get back to me mmmmmkay.

[montestewart]

I'm not sure how you got this:

Ok, you think it was a good trade, I think it was a bad trade. We'll see how it plays out over the next few years I suppose.

out of this:

Maybe they should have unloaded James or Stevenson in the trade, or held onto Songaila, or gotten a current or future pick back. Maybe they could have gotten more on draft day (from which team?). Maybe Foye and/or Miller won't pan out and/or won't resign. Maybe we'll all regret the trade.

There are numerous specific aspects to this trade that are continually ignored; three bigs with little (Songaila) or no future in DC were moved, along with their salaries, nearly $13.5 million this year and $4.8 million next year. In return, we got two players with skill sets that address specific needs (backup point guard, 3P shooting, guard rebounding, depth, etc.) and either or both could arguably make the greatest contribution to the team after Arenas, Haywood, Butler and Jamison. Maybe the core is the problem and/or a move toward improving the defense is the obvious solution (both have been discussed endlessly on this board, incidentally), but with significant salary committed to those four this year, there’s an argument for trying to build on that this year, and a good argument that the trade did just that.

Prior to the draft, there was endless comment that this draft would be the weakest in years. Prior to the draft, Rubio was at times a sure #2 pick. Prior to the draft, I saw no predictions that DeJuan Blair would go so low. The short term or long term contribution of a new player is not so easy to predict, but if the player has been scouted in the NBA, the predictions are probably a little more reliable, and Miller and Foye were scouted in the NBA. I think EG and Saunders have a good sense of what they are getting.

Worst case scenario: Arenas never comes back from injury, age decline and selfishness erode Butler and Jamison, Haywood reinjures wrist, Foye is exposed as a fraud, Miller’s previous season is shown to be the beginning of a certain decline, none of the young players develops beyond what we’ve seen, and no trades develop. In that event, we'd probably get a high draft pick in a (supposedly) better draft. (Do we still have that pick? I sometimes lose track of such details.)

Best case scenario: Arenas returns better than ever—scoring down a little but with more and better passing and defense too, Butler and Jamison selflessly complement Arenas and even improve their defense a little, Miller and Foye provide 3P shooting that makes the Wizards hard to defend while backing up PG and SF and sharing SG w/ Stevenson ( who, with McGuire, returns to become defensive stopper) and Young (who finally gets it and becomes starter and a good defender), and Blatche also finally gets it, joining with a rapidly developing McGee to complement Haywood so well that he has his best year ever, while still being so under the radar that we can easily resign him to finish his career a Wizard. Saunders’ defensive sets emphasize existing skills and mask deficiencies such that such that the defense (coupled with a league leading offense) is adequate for a championship.

Somewhere between these two is where the Wizards will likely end up. The trade was a risk, but not making it was a risk as well. The other options are speculative; again, I’m not sure exactly what better trade would have materialized on draft day. As a fan, I would love to see the latter scenario materialize; like most on this board, I’m not predicting it, but I’m staying open to the possibility, and I am predicting drastic improvement. I’m open to any further trades that might improve our chances, now or in the future, and I'm open to establishing a winning tradition that makes DC a desirable destination for players. For now, I’m OK with the trade.

[closg00]

As Mike wrote in his latest blog entry, Pech is the last man standing after this trade, at-least for now.
I wonder if they'll keep him around this year, given his salary?

Edit: How about Minny unloading all of the bad contracts we gave them w/o giving up anything
Kahn has certainly gotten a lot of mileage out of this trade by being patient.

[dobrojim]

I really liked the trade but I'm def from Mo when it comes to Foye.
I hope he does turn out to be someone who was roughly worthy
of where he was taken in the draft. If he does, it will be a REALLY
good trade. I think Miller will be huge for us this year. This is the
guy we salivated over getting for the last 2-3 years.

[Ruzious]

I think this trade is going to be a big mistake long term. You guys really overrate Foye, he isn't even going to be as good as Ben Gordon. And this is coming from a HUGE fan of Foye.

I think even if Rubio is a complete bust the trade was still a mistake, Rubio could have been dealt on draft night for more than you got for the 5th pick, no one expected him to drop that far. Or you could have just taken Flynn (Who I think is going to be better than Rubio). Hell even Derozan has the size to actually play shooting guard unlike Foye.

I'm still wondering how Ben Gordon got into the discussion.

I'm not a big Foye fan - and would have preferred getting back Lawson or Holliday. But Foye has some value - and an expiring contract - and Miller is the key player - despite his drop in scoring last season.

[yungal07]

As Mike wrote in his latest blog entry, Pech is the last man standing after this trade, at-least for now.
I wonder if they'll keep him around this year, given his salary?

Edit: How about Minny unloading all of the bad contracts we gave them w/o giving up anything
Kahn has certainly gotten a lot of mileage out of this trade by being patient.

And they better be patient. They just traded for a kid who won't be playing for them for a long, long time. And that's making the [big] assumption that he actually plays for that team.

[Dat2U]

As Mike wrote in his latest blog entry, Pech is the last man standing after this trade, at-least for now.
I wonder if they'll keep him around this year, given his salary?

Edit: How about Minny unloading all of the bad contracts we gave them w/o giving up anything
Kahn has certainly gotten a lot of mileage out of this trade by being patient.

Co-sign. It shows that contrary to popular belief, EG didn't really trade away "bad contracts".

Etan was an expiring. He was far more tradeable thatn he was a year or two ago. Even with the trade kicker.

Songaila only had two years left on his deal. Overpaid yes, but reasonably productive at $4 mil plus.

Pech was an expiring deal.

The only addition Minny took in salary was Songaila's deal with one additional year on it. Not bad to acquire a top five pick in the draft especially when they didn't have to give up a pick in return.

Foye may be relatively productive in comparison to the players drafted after #5, but we'll have to pay a premium price to keep him considering his rookie deal is about up. However, I'm confident that one of the players EG passed on in the draft will make the deal look bad. Whether its Flynn, Curry, DeRozan or someone else, time will eventually tell.

[montestewart]

As Mike wrote in his latest blog entry, Pech is the last man standing after this trade, at-least for now.
I wonder if they'll keep him around this year, given his salary?

Edit: How about Minny unloading all of the bad contracts we gave them w/o giving up anything
Kahn has certainly gotten a lot of mileage out of this trade by being patient.

Co-sign. It shows that contrary to popular belief, EG didn't really trade away "bad contracts".

Etan was an expiring. He was far more tradeable thatn he was a year or two ago. Even with the trade kicker.

Songaila only had two years left on his deal. Overpaid yes, but reasonably productive at $4 mil plus.

Pech was an expiring deal.

The only addition Minny took in salary was Songaila's deal with one additional year on it. Not bad to acquire a top five pick in the draft especially when they didn't have to give up a pick in return.

Foye may be relatively productive in comparison to the players drafted after #5, but we'll have to pay a premium price to keep him considering his rookie deal is about up. However, I'm confident that one of the players EG passed on in the draft will make the deal look bad. Whether its Flynn, Curry, DeRozan or someone else, time will eventually tell.

Wouldn't have minded keeping Songaila, and Pecherov could have been given more minutes last year to get a better look before trading, but most people weren't thinking "bad contracts," they were thinking the three weren't part of the team's future. Two were quickly moved by Minnesota, for (I think) Chucky Atkins, Antonio Daniels, and Damien Wilkins. If we packaged them with Pecherov and the #5, would we have gotten a better deal than Foye and Miller?

Tracking Bullets picks and players they passed on produces an all star team every five years (Drexler, Malone, Stockton, Rodman, Price, etc.). Does it prove Bob Ferry was overrated (maybe, I thought he was with the draft) or does it prove that hindsight is the best foresight. Someone always slips through or blossoms beyond all expectations. History tells me the Wizards probably wouldn't have gotten that guy.

This deal screams "how much better can we get this year; after that, we'll see." Hindsight may end up telling us it wouldn't have mattered much one way or the other.

[Kanyewest]

On the trade: bear in mind that we saved about $3M by not having to pay the draft pick.

It still would have been a nice piece to have. Didn't the T-Wolves themselves traded the rights to Ty Lawson for a future first round pick and cash considerations?

[Kanyewest]

Etan was an expiring. He was far more tradeable thatn he was a year or two ago. Even with the trade kicker.

Etan only became easier to deal by the T-Wolves because he no longer had a trade kicker to deal with. Any team that the Wizards traded Etan to would likely increase the payroll of that team by at least $1 million.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

As Mike wrote in his latest blog entry, Pech is the last man standing after this trade, at-least for now.
I wonder if they'll keep him around this year, given his salary?

Edit: How about Minny unloading all of the bad contracts we gave them w/o giving up anything
Kahn has certainly gotten a lot of mileage out of this trade by being patient.

Co-sign. It shows that contrary to popular belief, EG didn't really trade away "bad contracts".

Etan was an expiring. He was far more tradeable thatn he was a year or two ago. Even with the trade kicker.

Songaila only had two years left on his deal. Overpaid yes, but reasonably productive at $4 mil plus.

Pech was an expiring deal.

The only addition Minny took in salary was Songaila's deal with one additional year on it. Not bad to acquire a top five pick in the draft especially when they didn't have to give up a pick in return.

Foye may be relatively productive in comparison to the players drafted after #5, but we'll have to pay a premium price to keep him considering his rookie deal is about up. However, I'm confident that one of the players EG passed on in the draft will make the deal look bad. Whether its Flynn, Curry, DeRozan or someone else, time will eventually tell.

Dat, I'm just glad I'm only looking at this season's team. They get a sixth seed or above (which I fully expect they will) and I'm good for now.

The only thing I will add to your post is an asterisk on the last point enlarged. This deal MIGHT NOT look bad in the long run if EG can turn around and deal one of the many tradeable assets on this roster for a better long-term fit cap and productivity-wise.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Wouldn't have minded keeping Songaila, and Pecherov could have been given more minutes last year to get a better look before trading, but most people weren't thinking "bad contracts," they were thinking the three weren't part of the team's future. Two were quickly moved by Minnesota, for (I think) Chucky Atkins, Antonio Daniels, and Damien Wilkins. If we packaged them with Pecherov and the #5, would we have gotten a better deal than Foye and Miller?

Tracking Bullets picks and players they passed on produces an all star team every five years (Drexler, Malone, Stockton, Rodman, Price, etc.). Does it prove Bob Ferry was overrated (maybe, I thought he was with the draft) or does it prove that hindsight is the best foresight. Someone always slips through or blossoms beyond all expectations. History tells me the Wizards probably wouldn't have gotten that guy.

This deal screams "how much better can we get this year; after that, we'll see." Hindsight may end up telling us it wouldn't have mattered much one way or the other.

I still say one guy was a darned obvious pick: Stephen Curry. I think it's likely in 5 years that he's a very special player. I'd take him for Foye, and I like Foye. I even don't care about Curry's relatively poor summer league.

Summer league might show that Jonny Flynn's a better player. Same with Jennings. Nevertheless, I say both those first two guys are already better than Foye. Curry showed that he can be a playmaker and he can steal the ball. We know he can hit a wide open shot. He's on a rookie deal that doesn't expire for years. He's more valuable than Foye. No brainer still as far as I'm concerned based on Dell Curry and what son did in college.

Wizards should have had him or Flynn, but I'm over it.

montestewart, your bottom line is all the deal was about: This year. We'll know before January whether the short haul deal pays off.

[Dat2U]

Etan was an expiring. He was far more tradeable thatn he was a year or two ago. Even with the trade kicker.

Etan only became easier to deal by the T-Wolves because he no longer had a trade kicker to deal with. Any team that the Wizards traded Etan to would likely increase the payroll of that team by at least $1 million.

Etan became easier to deal b/c bottom line he became an expiring contract. The trade kicker is only a factor if you were to trade Etan for a similar or slightly lesser sized deal. You think the trade kicker would have meant much if were trading for a player who's contract was already 10% to 15% more than Etan's deal? No, that would just mean the two deals would then be about equal.

Holding on the Etan's deal into the season would have only made his expiring more valuable, and the trade kicker even less significant as the year went on.

[Dat2U]

Dat, I'm just glad I'm only looking at this season's team. They get a sixth seed or above (which I fully expect they will) and I'm good for now.
The only thing I will add to your post is an asterisk on the last point enlarged. This deal MIGHT NOT look bad in the long run if EG can turn around and deal one of the many tradeable assets on this roster for a better long-term fit cap and productivity-wise.

CCJ, if all this team does is get the 5th or 6th seed, and a potential 1st round exit, this season is an abject failure in my book.

We could get the 5th or 6th seed with EJ as coach and Ruffin, Hayes, Jeffries & Dixon as key backups or part time starters. What in hell did we sacrifice a top 5 pick for if we can't do any better?

Hell, I think its a pretty steep price to pay a top 5 pick every 5 years just to get out the first round once (which is what I believe EG is doing this season - and what EG did 5 yrs ago when he traded for Jamison).

At bare minimum, a 2nd round appearance and 6 or 7 competitive games against Boston, Cleveland or Orlando is necessary.

[Kanyewest]

Etan became easier to deal b/c bottom line he became an expiring contract. The trade kicker is only a factor if you were to trade Etan for a similar or slightly lesser sized deal. You think the trade kicker would have meant much if were trading for a player who's contract was already 10% to 15% more than Etan's deal? No, that would just mean the two deals would then be about equal.

Holding on the Etan's deal into the season would have only made his expiring more valuable, and the trade kicker even less significant as the year went on.

Well it obviously would have affected the Wizards if they took on more salary. That would have increased their payroll by at least $1 million dollars and they would have to pay an additional $1 million due to the fact that they are over the luxury tax. At the end of the day, someone is going to pay for Etan's trade kicker. The only reason OKC did that deal was because they receive what will probably be a high 2nd round pick, figuring that Minnesota will be one of the worst teams in the league.

And it's not like the Wizards don't have any expiring contracts to use when the trade deadline comes around. Expiring contracts this year include Miller, James, Haywood, Foye, Oberto, and McGuire which is about $28 million. I could probably see the Wizards trading James or Miller along with a young piece to get another player that becomes available.

[montestewart]

"Underrated moves of the NBA offseason" by Randy Hill
http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/1006 ... -offseason

Moves include Jarrett Jack acquisition and Shannon Brown resigning. No mention of Miller/Foye acquisition. Underrated?

[closg00]

"Underrated moves of the NBA offseason" by Randy Hill
http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/1006 ... -offseason

Moves include Jarrett Jack acquisition and Shannon Brown resigning. No mention of Miller/Foye acquisition. Underrated?

This article appears to be about some of the non-headline making moves that happened this summer. Our signing of Orberto would have been a candidate for this article, but he didn't make the writers list. Interesting read, made me think about the make-up of the Orlando team again..

[montestewart]

"Underrated moves of the NBA offseason" by Randy Hill
http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/1006 ... -offseason

Moves include Jarrett Jack acquisition and Shannon Brown resigning. No mention of Miller/Foye acquisition. Underrated?

This article appears to be about some of the non-headline making moves that happened this summer. Our signing of Orberto would have been a candidate for this article, but he didn't make the writers list. Interesting read, made me think about the make-up of the Orlando team again..

The article also had the Okafor, McDyess, and Andre Miller acquisition, which seem on a comparable scale. Miller/Foye seems equally excluded from the earth shaking (Shaq, Turk, etc.) lists and the under-the-radar lists, overshadowed by the return of Arenas and Haywood.

Agree about often-overlooked Orlando moves. They look tougher up front.

[closg00]

Always interesting to hear what Minny fans have to say about Foye.
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