MIN-HOU-UTA

[shrink]

I'm plucking this out of another thread that got side-tracked, to see it it generates discussion. Narf has similar trades in his thread, that you may prefer more,

MIN IN McGrady + Harpring + NYK 1st (29.74)
MIN OUT Blount + Cardinal + Daniels + Atkins (24.80)

HOU IN Kirilenko + Daniels + Atkins (26.53)
HOU OUT McGrady + Battier (30.10)

UTA IN Battier + Blount + Cardinal (21.58)
UTA OUT Kirilenko + Harpring + NYK 1st (22.95)

UTA SAVES: I rank Kirilenko's $17.8 mil second year as very bad, so they have to pay the Knicks's pick to not only move him, but to add a valuable Battier. Utah saves $2.74 this year, but the big savings is in 2010-11 when $10 mil of Kirilenko's money comes off the books, alongside Boozer. $13 mil >= NYK 1st, but Battier at $8 >> Kirilenko at $18.

HOU takes on Kirilenko's second year, but most of it is paid for with the savings this year:

$3.57 trade
$2.72 Atkins
$5.54 lux penalties
$3.00 lux share
14.83 2009 SAVINGS

Yao and Ariza are paid through 2011 and they'll be paying some youth too, so I don't see Kirilenko costing them a key free agent in 2010.

MIN swaps expirings and takes on $7.6 mil, including Atkins waive, but comes out with the NYK pick.

[revprodeji]

Is this the infamous NY pick of this year?

I would do it. But I hesitate because I think we can make a deal with another team for a proven player easier with the expiring deals.

[Worm Guts]

Of course I would do it, but it seems unrealistic.

[Foye]

I'd do it at the deadline if NY is in the bottom five-seven teams in the league...

[Devilzsidewalk]

that'd be absolutely fantastic, but why does Houston do this trade

[shrink]

I think Battier and Kirilenko or comparable on-court players, so HOU is just as good and saves money. Of course, all of these HOU trades are premised on McGrady being done, and too big a contract to move, so Daniels provides a small, tradable asset.

MIN needs to be in for 2009 money, because HOU and UTA are both over the lux
HOU gets to save money in 2009 without losing production
UTA turns Kirilenko into Battier and saves money in 2010

[funkatron101]

that'd be absolutely fantastic, but why does Houston do this trade

I agree. If Battier is going, I would consider Boozer to the Rockets.

[Devilzsidewalk]

I think Battier and Kirilenko or comparable on-court players, so HOU is just as good and saves money. Of course, all of these HOU trades are premised on McGrady being done, and too big a contract to move, so Daniels provides a small, tradable asset.

MIN needs to be in for 2009 money, because HOU and UTA are both over the lux
HOU gets to save money in 2009 without losing production
UTA turns Kirilenko into Battier and saves money in 2010

all the word is that McGrady is working out hard and ready to roll though

[shrink]

that'd be absolutely fantastic, but why does Houston do this trade

I agree. If Battier is going, I would consider Boozer to the Rockets.

Check my previous trades.

[John Doe [MIN]]

Minnesota makes out like bandits. One team getting such an incredible deal like this usually means everyone else says no. It's a testament to your hypothetical trade wizardry that each of the other teams could conceivably agree to this.

However, even if we accept the shaky but plausible notion that Utah values $13 million dollars more than the New York pick, I still think Houston passes. All things being equal, this trade doesn't really hurt them or help them, but when you factor in that Battier is a team leader, fan favorite, and a pillar of the franchise (however obsolete), I don't see enough incentive for them to send him packing. Perhaps the deal would be more likely to go through if Minnesota contributed something else of value that doesn't cost Houston any extra money. Pekovic? Charlotte's 1st rounder? From a MN perspective, I would still take this deal if one of those were added in.

[NewWolvesOrder]

pipedream

[shrink]

Good points. I've been working under the impression that not only was McGrady too risky to count on (particularly at a $22 mil salary), but that HOU wanted to move him anyway. If McGrady looks good in practice, then obviously HOU's going to try to get what they can out of him. John Doe's probably right as well .. HOU would want more compensation if Battier's a team-leader.

I think MIN does well, but at this point, I don't think its a massacre, because I don't agree that the NYK pick is the #1 pick in the 2010 draft. At a minimum, we don't know that, and their coach has done more with less before (albeit with Nash). $3 mil might equal a late 1sts, but that's $3 mil in cash, not $7.6 in hard-to-get 2009 cap relief. On the other hand, I don't think the pick is worth $13 mil in cap relief. I think as posters we get carried away with the talent aspects, and don't want to think our teams would ever sell assets at a great return .. in money.

Thanks for the input. I think I agree with funkatron .. Boozer coming out, and not Kirilenko, makes it fly better, with Utah getting the major cap relief since they are smaller-market and over the lux.

[John Doe [MIN]]

I've clarified my thought process on why Houston rejects this. Just because Battier has no real value to them =/= he doesn't have value to other teams around the league. If they were to trade him off, they'd expect to receive a package of expirings and young assets/picks. In this scenario, swapping out Kirilenko for Battier represents minimal increase or decrease in on-value to Houston. The financial aspect of having to pay Kirilenko more is accounted for, but it takes away the option of trading Battier for assets, since this wouldn't be an option for Kirilenko, and in that sense, they lose.

This explanation went on longer than I intended it to, but what I would suggest is that we find out how much value Houston thinks it could get back in a trade of Battier and find a way to add that from Minnesota's side.