JonathanJoseph wrote:Anyone read Jamison in the Wizards Insider today? He agrees with me. Anyone talking about 5th/6th in the east is reading too much into the 19 win team and not enough into the roster and coach that we'll be trotting out in 6 weeks.
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53 wins is the floor. I'll be here to eat crow if necessary.
Further- Turkoglu is more of a winner than Carter so there are questions there, Shaq is no longer the player he once was and may cause problems in Cleveland where chemistry was their biggest factor last yaer (outside of Lebron).
Kevin Garnett has still not been cleared to return. If you think a 33 year old with a knee problem is going to be healthy enough to play in the NBA full time you are kidding yourself. Boston's run is likely over.
Me, I said 5-6. Having little to do with last year's 19-win squad except as a referendum on our young players. (I expect Blatche will be much improved, but I expect that every year). Okay, improvement in our frontcourt defense hinges on one or the other of our young bigs stepping up significantly and pushing Jamison for PT. The additions of Foye and Miller have no effect there -- except in Miller's case by crowding the options at SF, thus mooting a few minutes for Tawn at the 3-spot, and Oberto vs Songaila is even change at best.
But the key reason for calming words on my part is the fact that you have zero players who have run in Flip's system, and our core group hasn't run in a traditional offensive set for a few years, certainly not with each other. The habits, the terminology, etc aren't grooved, the roles will have to be re-discovered or redefined. Will they adjust? Absolutely-- quickly? sure, could be. BUt you can't expect they will pick up where they left off three years ago-- in a new offense, new defense, new coach, new roles, etc. on a squad where they may actually battle for minutes and roles at their particular spot due to that improved depth and a different coaching philosophy.
I'm saying 5/6 but that the team's final record will not reflect their real top-end value. I don't care about early awkwardness, I just want good health and the squad to peak late, get hot when entering the playoffs.
On other squads. I agree on Turk's value, one reason why Toronto may hopscotch other teams and surprise a few people. One thing is certain we don't match up well with them defensively, though I'm pretty sure they can't keep up with us on offense either.
Orlando may slip, probably not though I think the loss of Rafer Alston hurts as much as the TurkVince swap. They will likely have a strong regular season record regardless, Dwight Howard is still some distance away from his peak. Going into the playoffs no matter where you project them they have to land in the top 3. Can't put the Wiz ahead of them in the reg season record. Where the loss of Turk hits most is in the postseason. Vince has not shown himself to be mentally strong, Turk was clutch when it was needed most.
On Boston's overness, Rondo's 30+ ppg outbursts in the playoffs would beg to differ. That's a significantly underrated two-way player (underrated by his frontoffice even) even while he catches accolades. He's one of the few small defenders who can give any trouble to DWade and DRose. Will Garnett miss time, probably. But the Wiz of all people have to be the last team to count on not having to push the 'if healthy' button. If Boston slips to 4, I still don't have the Wiz ahead of them.
Cleveland. They have personnel to play 3-5 different styles, and the most versatile superstar in the league. The primary thing holding them back is the eptitude and cojones of their Coach. But it's stupid to dismiss the Big Load on a slow-down half court squad. A less-healthy Shaq helped Miami to a championship, with a toe swole to sweet potato size. Have to call them top 3.
And every year there's a mystery cow. A dark horse candidate who shows up and surprises. Depth is not the same as superstar talent. If Gil is healthy and then some (better defender, better team leader) we have a potential candidate. Though again, he's never dominated in those all-star games that he squeaked into. That's what we all want to see most: the MVP conversation Gil. I never doubt him, never doubt that he can put together that kind of season, career, etc. Though it's fair to allow him room a cushion of games while he blows the crud out his carburetors and reminds himself of how HIbachi he can be at NBA speed (more than summer pick-ups with nothing on the line but pride). Point being players like DWade have already recuperated and knocked the rust off; players like DRose never had to. And so on. A team that has an established system and rotation etc can confidently pencil in a few wins on familiarity and chemistry alone.
So 5-6, I say, in an effort towards managing expectations. Though right, I expect we could get dangerously hot late, and then there's no telling what could happen except that our free agents could earn themselves significantly healthy pay raises...
..unless they want to give a discount to stay on a winning situation with a good group of guys. Mike Miller knows: it's a precious and rare thing to have a chance to play on a winning squad. Happiness can be better than cash.