Repercussions of a lockout shortened season on an SSOL team

[nevetsov]

Hi all, I was reading up today on the stalemate between the referees association and the NBA with regard to the negotiations for the referees new CBA, and it looks like there's a pretty good chance there could be another referees lockout.

If this is the case, it's conceivable that we may be staring down the barrel of anther shortened season (there was a 50 game season a while back?) if they do not call in WNBA and NBDL refs.

In the event of the regular season being shortened again, to say a 50 game season, how do you think this would affect the Suns chances this year?

- Obviously, with a shortened regular season, there would be less wear on our veterans by the time the playoffs roll around. I think having guys like Nash and Hill only having to play 50 regular season games as opposed to 82 would be a huge boost to us as our veterans would have logged a little more than half the minutes they would in a typical season.

- With every game counting in an already tight western conference, I think the guys coming together early for voluntary workouts is another huge boost. The sooner teams can get their shiz together, the better off they are going to be.

- I think teams not knowing exactly what to expect from us allows us to take some teams by surprise too and kinda sneak up on a few teams. This could contribute to a few early season wins that we may not have ordinarily gotten had we maintained the status quo.

[lilfishi22]

The chances of playing the same team twice is lowered in a shortened season, so there's less scouting opportunities for the next match up. I guess it's good for us since our style normally takes teams by surprise.

It's definitely a plus that our guys came in early to get into it, but I think with our style, it takes a bit longer than other teams to get that synergy going. Our style relies heavily on knowing our own players tendencies and indirect communication (quick looks) and some of those things are hard to replicate in a practice environment as players usually perform differently in practice and in game.

I'm really hoping the negotiations work out, something about a shortened season that always puts an asterisk after every stat and win that I'm uncomfortable with.

[Miklo]

I agree that putting less wear and tear on Hill and Nash would be a boost, but I would hate to see a shortened season, it would really be terrible for the state of the league especially since IMO we are going to see some serious tension between the NBPA and owners as the CBA runs out.

Now realistically, I don't see a lockout occurring because of a standstill with just the referees; Stern will work something out, as much crap as you can talk about him he has saved the league before and won't let referees mandate lost profits of millions of dollars for the league and teams - the stakes are too high right now. Like I said, the players are what we'll have to worry about in the coming years when we talk about the potential for a lockout.

[Austin]

i agree, I do not think there will be a lockout

[lilfishi22]

I don't believe there'll be a lockout either. Sounds to me like the refs' suits are trying to get leverage by using the media.

[SideSwipe]

The 98-99 lockout was caused by a rift between players and owners, not by refs. The NBA will simply play with replacement refs if they can't come to an accord with the current union. There will be no shortened season this year, but it next year, I believe that we face the possibility with the players union.

[lilfishi22]

There will be no shortened season this year, but it next year, I believe that we face the possibility with the players union.

How come? Shrinking cap? I'm not real in tune with what's going on with the NBPA.

[Miklo]

There will be no shortened season this year, but it next year, I believe that we face the possibility with the players union.

How come? Shrinking cap? I'm not real in tune with what's going on with the NBPA.

It's like this: the economic feasibility of the NBA is in jeopardy, because with the regular built-in salary cap increases, these players are getting paid WAY too much. That's why when you look at profitability for each franchise, they really don't make that much money. In fact many are operating at a loss, and even more are barely breaking even.

Have you noticed how this year, players are sitting on the free agent market much longer than in the past? And certain players, at the salaries they are demanding, simply aren't even getting any looks (look at Iverson for example). With all these inflated salaries, teams are finding it hard to justify spending money on the upper-middle class of players because in some cases you see sixth men making $10-11 million (Ben Gordon).

There are more financially motivated trades than ever (like I even have to say that to Suns fans), by teams who either are losing money and can't justify a large payroll, or by teams who are lining up a ton of cap space in anticipation for the huge burden of what has become the max contract.

Some people may say we're going to see a huge payday for these players next offseason, but I am worried that what we may actually see is a huge discrepancy between what owners can justify and what players are demanding.

[lilfishi22]

Thanks Miklo. How does the other major sports (NHL, NFL, MLB) stack up when it comes to economic feasibility?

[WTFsunsFTW]

The 98-99 lockout was caused by a rift between players and owners, not by refs. The NBA will simply play with replacement refs if they can't come to an accord with the current union. There will be no shortened season this year, but it next year, I believe that we face the possibility with the players union.

You think the ref union would allow the NBA to hire scabs? You're delusional.

It will get settled before the season, as that's the only option.

[Fo-Real]

DAMN IT!!!!! I was all set to ref some games too................ i was already accepting payoffs from betters arround the neighborhood, i was makin money.........and dont call me a scab!

[Miklo]

The 98-99 lockout was caused by a rift between players and owners, not by refs. The NBA will simply play with replacement refs if they can't come to an accord with the current union. There will be no shortened season this year, but it next year, I believe that we face the possibility with the players union.

You think the ref union would allow the NBA to hire scabs? You're delusional.

It will get settled before the season, as that's the only option.

I agree that it will get settled, but more of the burden is on the refs right now. The refs hardly have any say whether the league "hires scabs". I don't know if anyone else has studied negotiations (one of the many random business classes I took), but the league has a MUCH higher BATNA than the refs. "BATNA" is Best Alternative To a Negotiated Agreement, so basically the higher your BATNA is, the easier it is for you to walk away from the table. So here, the league's BATNA if the ref negotiations don't work is to just bring in some WNBA/NBDL/etc refs, who they could pay less anyway. The refs' BATNA is...being out of work. The refs know this, which is I'm sure why they supposedly are locking themselves in that hotel - so the league doesn't brush them off, as Stern has already done in a couple of the meetings. So the reality of it is, it will definitely be settled - but on the league's terms.

[WTFsunsFTW]

Except for the black eye it will put on the league if there's a labor dispute with the ref union.

It will undoubtedly affect attendance/purchases if the season starts off with headlines of a ref strike.

Hell, the UAW almost singlehandedly tanked the US car industry

[Miklo]

Hell, the UAW almost singlehandedly tanked the US car industry

Yeah but doesn't apply here, that would be like NBPA vs. owners/league, which actually COULD cause a lockout.

And if I was looking to buy x number of NBA tickets, that number wouldn't go down at all if they brought in different refs. Hell, it'd actually be kind of nice to completely eradicate the corruption from the Donaghy era.

[SideSwipe]

Miklo's BATNA reference is right. The refs tried this once before on the last go around, and the negotiations went right down to the wire and even after camp started, if I am not mistaken. The refs eventually caved in and got the new deal done. There are simply too many other people out there that have the necessary skills to ref NBA games. You can bet our good friend Stu Jackson has a long list of resumes waiting to join the league that haven't joined the union. They will all be on speed dial for the next couple of weeks, and he'll be interviewing all of them right now to show the union he means business.

[WTFsunsFTW]

Any low ranking ref that accepts a job while the ref union is striking will NOT be accepted to the union - plain and simple. Thats how unions work. BATNA or not, it's a black eye for the NBA and WILL affect the regular season.

[Miklo]

Any low ranking ref that accepts a job while the ref union is striking will NOT be accepted to the union - plain and simple. Thats how unions work.

Right. But we are talking about replacement refs - WNBA, NBDL, etc. Nobody said the league is gonna reinvent the wheel here. After all, what do you think the league is gonna start interviewing prospective referee candidates? No.

BATNA or not, it's a black eye for the NBA and WILL affect the regular season.

...

I'm not seeing an argument here. If it WILL affect the season, how so? Why?

I seriously don't see ticket sales taking a hit because there may be replacement refs for a few games.

I don't see games being decided any differently - there will be parity as far as quality of replacement refs across the board.

I don't see the NBPA getting pissed cause of a temporary impasse in the ref negotiations.

In fact, the only person I can see getting pissed about this is Mark Cuban, and he gets pissed about everything.

[BurningHeart]

Good. I hope the current refs don't ever referee another game again.

The replacements can't be any worse.

[Miklo]

Good. I hope the current refs don't ever referee another game again.

The replacements can't be any worse.

Plus I just saw this in the wiretap article:

"McMorris stated that the starting salary for NBA referees is $91,000 and the top salary paid to referees currently is between $350,000 and $400,000."

If I was Stern I'd be pissed too!

That means that black lady is making a hundred g's and Bavetta is making damn near half a mil

[hunterxaz]

there won't be a lockout, even if the refs from the union don't work, the nba has already stated they're bringing in back-up refs for pre-season. so **** those idiots. i'll be glad to not see bavetta.