Wolves Win Shares Predictions

[shrink]

I don't know who followed the RealGM links on Chris Paul Win Shares, but the basketball-reference. com article is a prediction for the entire league. Win Shares has proven to be a pretty reliable predictor of team record in the past. However, when used in this way, minutes and injuries also must be forecasted, and the different methods for estimating these make the numbers vary widely, so put less credence into this information than normal.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3408

The Wolves are projected to win 34.5 games, a distant 11th in the west.

GSW W 42.1
MIN W 34.5
OKC W 33.2
SAC W 33.0
MEM W 32.1
LAC W 29.7

All but the top 4 teams in the East are projected to finish with a worse record than the Warriors, so we may be over-estimating how high our 2010 lottery pick will be.

Individually, the Wolves Win shares look like this:

Al Jefferson 7.2
Kevin Love 4.8
Ramon Sessions 4.8
Ryan Gomes 4.0
Corey Brewer 2.4
Ryan Hollins 2.3
Sasha Pavlovic 2.0
Brian Cardinal 1.6
Damien Wilkins 1.3
Jonny Flynn 1.3
Antonio Daniels 1.0
Chucky Atkins 0.8
Oleksiy Pecherov 0.6
Mark Blount 0.4
Wayne Ellington 0.1
TEAM WIN SHARES: 34.5

Looking it over, rookies are ranked low in the overall formula for the league, because of their projected minutes played. I think that MIN will play rookies far more than the average team, and it will lower our wins produced.

[Devilzsidewalk]

that'd be above my expectations

[slinky]

I dont think we will see OKC below us in the standings this year.

And if you believe that atkins and blount wont be here this year, than if you adjust the win shares, we are within decimals of OKC and SAC. So I still think we will be one of the top 5 or 6 worst teams.

[theGreatRC]

Am I seriously a homer to think we will actually be a pretty decent team this year???

Rambis-laimbeer-Theus --- 3 great basketball minds with some coaching experience.

Rambis - Won a championship while learning under a top coach in Phil Jackson
Laimbeer - Won at the WNBA level, tough gritty coach
Theus - Has coaching experience

Sessions and Love were good players last year; if they continue to develop at their current rate, I can see this team doing some good things this season.

Flynn and Ellington are the big questions. Will their games adapt to the NBA? Will Rambis play them a lot? Are they busts?

If Al Jefferson is as good as we think he is, we shouldn't be one of the worst teams in the league. He is our 'star' player and was nearly an all-star last year..How is Indiana better than us? I see our lineup and bench as much better than theirs.

Houston lost Yao and Artest and made no significant additions to the team other than T-Mac vowing he'll be ready to play. Still, how does that get them a predicted 42 wins?? They have no real Center and their starting SF is in LA.

OT-

POR should be higher than PHO...

/Rant

(This is my opinion worm guts, so don't take it as a fact) I can't wait til we surprise teams this year. Flynn will be a beast.

[AQuintus]

I was looking over this last night, and I quickly came to the conclusion that these rankings are completely useless. Mostly based on this:

Playing time was estimated based on Ed Kupfer's formula for game missed due to injury, a minutes per game formula (MPG = 10.16 + (0.557*MPG_Y-1)+(0.029*MPG_Y-2)), and total team minutes were forced to reconcile to 60% for starters, 30% for 2nd-stringers, and 10% for benchwarmers (HoopsHype's depth charts were used for the designations).

HoopsHype's depth charts are insanely bad. (Seriously, they have Stewie Pecherov listed as the 3rd string Small Forward.)

[Mcfale313]

not to mention we just lost another 0.8 win-share today by waiving Atkins

[IcemanMN]

Am I seriously a homer to think we will actually be a pretty decent team this year???

Rambis-laimbeer-Theus --- 3 great basketball minds with some coaching experience.

Rambis - Won a championship while learning under a top coach in Phil Jackson
Laimbeer - Won at the WNBA level, tough gritty coach
Theus - Has coaching experience

Sessions and Love were good players last year; if they continue to develop at their current rate, I can see this team doing some good things this season.

Flynn and Ellington are the big questions. Will their games adapt to the NBA? Will Rambis play them a lot? Are they busts?

If Al Jefferson is as good as we think he is, we shouldn't be one of the worst teams in the league. He is our 'star' player and was nearly an all-star last year..How is Indiana better than us? I see our lineup and bench as much better than theirs.

Houston lost Yao and Artest and made no significant additions to the team other than T-Mac vowing he'll be ready to play. Still, how does that get them a predicted 42 wins?? They have no real Center and their starting SF is in LA.

OT-

POR should be higher than PHO...

/Rant

(This is my opinion worm guts, so don't take it as a fact) I can't wait til we surprise teams this year. Flynn will be a beast.

The coaches are new, 90% of the players are new, basketball is a team game and there will not be much of a team until mid-season, just a lot of potential. If there are any surprises this year, they will be on the downside.

[niner2716]

I really like the way the Wolves roster is shaping up. The West is deep, which will make it hard for a playoff shot. But i'd say 38 wins this year.

[cpfsf]

26 wins

I'm not banned am I?