tsherkin wrote:Patterns is wrong, here, at least to some extent.
FG% is a valuable measure for evaluating people in some ways. Given the volume of 3s he took, the "efficiency" of his shooting is relative; this is the Iverson argument, only with 3s AND FTAs instead of just FTAs. High-volume, low-raw FG% chuckery is still a problem, especially when the 3P% isn't spectacular.
Look at it this way; in 06-07, he had 32 games where he played 30+ minutes and shot under 40%. He had 21 games over 48%. He was a streaky guy; when he was on, he could shoot you out of a hole, but when he wasn't, he'd put you into one.
In those 32 games, he MISSED an average of 14.2 shots a game while taking an average of 20.4.
Regardless of whether he hit his threes or not (he shot 23.2% from downtown in those games on about 7.7 3PA/g), he was still missing left, right and center. Not all of those misses were rebounded by the Wizards.
When you're primarily a perimeter shooter, raw FG% matters. Arenas drives, and he draws fouls (and because he's played mostly from 04-05 forward, he's drawn fouls very well for a wing), but it would be a mistake to only look at eFG% and TS% to evaluate his efficiency.
BULK FG-missed still represent a problem.
Eh. Except you blithely skate over the issue of Free Throws.
Fact is Gilbert doesn't simply draw fouls well for a wing player, he draws fouls remarkably well for any player, whatever size. Gilbert consistently ranks in the top ten of all players in Free Throw attempts per 40 minutes (pace adjusted). Healthy or not.
This is a significant portion of his game, and is a method by which a player on offense can play defense as well by softening up opposing frontline Bigs for late game situations. Opposing Bigs get subbed out in late-game situations when they have been dinged with foul trouble. Opposing Wing scorers get switched onto easier match-ups on defense. Gilbert tends to riccochet off the big bodies in the lane, the hand-check issues are a small part of the equation, the clear path and 2.9 second tango under the cylinder are even more important.
Staring myopically at his raw FG% doesn't reflect on how rock-steady that FTA number is. Essentially Gilbert's three point shooting set up his higher percentage shot: the stand-still unguardable fifteen foot round the back three times flatfoot set shot-- that is: the free throw. There's a reason why the Wizards under Eddie Jordan were consistently ranking among the league-best in Free Throw Attempts per game. The system created mismatches on the perimeter and clear lanes to attack, specifically for a guy like Gilbert. The threat that he might catch hot from outside meant opponents were forced to guard him tight, as far out as 30 feet from the basket. The threat that he might drive forced opponents to sag off of proficient shooters Jamsion and Butler. Notice the 3pt percentage of Caron Butler taking a significant bounce after entering the Wiz system.
I showed you the stat before from the Free Darko collective's remarkable book (The Macrophenomenal Guide to Basketball), the chart illustrating Gilbert's "zone of no conscience", where his three point shooting percentage actually increased the further from the basket he was. Scouts quoted in Sports Illustrated said he was effectively the toughest player to guard in the NBA -- most disruptive overall to opponent defensive schemes -- since you had to pick him up so far out and stick him, and he was too quick to stick with out there.
Ask nate33 of the player comparisons board to drag out his player pairs regressions showing Gilbert's eFG% effect on his teammates. Hell -- ask DeShawn Stevenson who shot 19% in the playoffs after Gil first got injured, when he'd shot a raw 50% from the field playing next to Gil. Shoot, check 82games' +/- stats clearly showing that Gilbert has been more valuable to his team's offensive success than any other player on the squad. He shot alot because his squad needed him to do so. The offensive spacing was predicated on his particular skillset.
You can feel free to quibble and nitpick, but by sticking doggedly to that raw FG% stat you're only betraying your confirmation bias, not an astute grasp of statistical analysis. The Wizards under EJ were consistently among the leagues' top offenses, with Gilbert the +/- leader. That would tend to suggest something fairly obvious, axiomatic-- bluntly-- pretty basic to the non-stupid: Gilbert shooting a bunch doesn't hurt the team's offense, because scoring was never a problem.
Now you might be right if you had tried to make the point that low percentage raw FG% numbers forces frontcourt players to commit heavily to the offensive rebound, and long rebounds might seduce rearline players to try for second chance points -- all of which ruins court balance for transition defense. But you didn't even try to make that point so nope, you get no lollipop.
That said. If you take a look at Flip's track record with heavy usage point guards, they tend to get more efficient entering his system. Players like Chauncey, Steph, Sam Cassell put up career years in most categories of PG efficiency. And the defensive scheme tends to allow top third defense even squads with heavy doses of Wally Szerbiak and Fred Hoiberg.
I'm perfectly happy reading the squawking of nono-birds about Gilbert's chances of success. Especially given his propensity for using doubts to drive him. Go ahead, doubt the willpower and ability of the most obsessively driven PG in the league. BY all means, talk about how he's unable to defend, distribute, etc. Spread the common wisdom that he's unable to actually score. Health is the only question mark, that's up to divine powers to sort out, but if the cat is healthy --well, suffice to say I don't suspect their own backcourt scoring is gonna be the roadblock for the success of this year's Wiz.
