5 Guys you do NOT want to draft early

raptorsfan_04 · Post #1 » by **raptorsfan_04** » Thu Sep 24, 2009 11:23 pm

Every year I see this guy go top 3 and the team he's been drafted by never wins... so to start the list off.... drumroll please....

1. Dwight Howard - GREAT in 3 cats... horrible in 2 and bad in 2... not a top 10 pick

2. KG - combination of he's never been this seriously injured before/he's an OLD 31 and he's still not running... not a top 20 pick

3. Steve Nash - maybe as a late 3rd or 4th round pick but sooo many websites are overrating him... not a top 35 pick

4. Monta Ellis - 5 guards clamoring for PT... not a top 60 pick

5. Derrick Rose - his unbelievable playoff performance has everyone high on derrick rose fever... guy is not a top 60 pick... any pg who doesn't contribute massively in 4 cats while throwing away the TO cat... hopefully gets picked in the 2nd or 3rd round in my draft

Rainman66 · Post #2 » by **Rainman66** » Fri Sep 25, 2009 12:35 am

Pau Gasol- he's a great player and all, but 18 and 9 doesn't warrant a top ten pick IMO

plonden · Post #3 » by **plonden** » Fri Sep 25, 2009 1:39 am

Rainman66 wrote:Pau Gasol- he's a great player and all, but 18 and 9 doesn't warrant a top ten pick IMO

How about 12th? Still first round but not top ten.

He was 12th last season in per game and 6th in cumulative value according to BBM. He thrives as a second option on the Lakers and executes the triangle offense perfectly.

plonden · Post #4 » by **plonden** » Fri Sep 25, 2009 1:42 am

I will throw Tim Duncan out there. Last season was the first that he started to show his age. The Spurs have much better depth at all positions and especially at the four and five. They should have a solid record if Manu and Parker stay healthy. I see Pop messing with his minutes, especially during the fantasy playoffs. I am not touching the Big Fundamental in the second round.

DNYLkiller · Post #5 » by **DNYLkiller** » Fri Sep 25, 2009 4:27 am

Pau throws out great %'s and assts for a C and will probably up the blocks a little this year. Low To's and a nice showing @ eurobasket easily make Pau viable anywhere from 8-14. The scarcity of quality centers does increase his value, but I've never regretted drafting Pau. ever.

DNYLkiller · Post #6 » by **DNYLkiller** » Fri Sep 25, 2009 4:36 am

plonden wrote:I will throw Tim Duncan out there. Last season was the first that he started to show his age. The Spurs have much better depth at all positions and especially at the four and five. They should have a solid record if Manu and Parker stay healthy. I see Pop messing with his minutes, especially during the fantasy playoffs. I am not touching the Big Fundamental in the second round.

If your going Big, by the second round theres not a whole lot of options outside of Duncan. Lopez maybe..nene?

AussieBuck · Post #7 » by **AussieBuck** » Fri Sep 25, 2009 12:16 pm

Nash could jump back up to somewhere near elite levels this season. IMO his drop off had more to do with terrible slow tempo coaching than it did with his aging. The others I agree with.

plonden · Post #8 » by **plonden** » Fri Sep 25, 2009 10:47 pm

DNYLkiller wrote:If your going Big, by the second round theres not a whole lot of options outside of Duncan. Lopez maybe..nene?

For big ball, I would take Gerald Wallace in the second round before Tim Duncan. If Pau Gasol, Chris Bosh, Al Jefferson or Dwight Howard fell I would pick them up in a heartbeat. I would also grab Troy Murphy or Iggy or Brook Lopez late in the second before Duncan.

Post #9 » by **Hilltop** » Sat Sep 26, 2009 6:43 am

To draft Rose merely based on his statistics last season would be foolish. Rose is only entering his 2nd season and is poised to break out this year. It's an upside pick if anything. Who's to say he isn't going to show vast improvements this time around?

sabonis · Post #10 » by **sabonis** » Sat Sep 26, 2009 2:37 pm

raptorsfan_04 wrote:Every year I see this guy go top 3 and the team he's been drafted by never wins... so to start the list off.... drumroll please....

1. Dwight Howard - GREAT in 3 cats... horrible in 2 and bad in 2... not a top 10 pick

2. KG - combination of he's never been this seriously injured before/he's an OLD 31 and he's still not running... not a top 20 pick

3. Steve Nash - maybe as a late 3rd or 4th round pick but sooo many websites are overrating him... not a top 35 pick

4. Monta Ellis - 5 guards clamoring for PT... not a top 60 pick

5. Derrick Rose - his unbelievable playoff performance has everyone high on derrick rose fever... guy is not a top 60 pick... any pg who doesn't contribute massively in 4 cats while throwing away the TO cat... hopefully gets picked in the 2nd or 3rd round in my draft

I only agree on Rose. He will probably be top 65 at best
and sorta agree on Monta. I don't like him getting picked at 40 but at 60-65 I'll most probably draft him.

Howard - if you tank FT%, he's top 5
KG - top 20, not 30
Nash - top 25 not 35... they are back to run n gun

Parasight · Post #11 » by **Parasight** » Sat Sep 26, 2009 11:44 pm

If you're playing H2H with the standard 9 CATs, you'd be a fool to overlook Dwight in the first 10 picks. He's easily a Top 5 H2H talent.

AussieBuck · Post #12 » by **AussieBuck** » Sun Sep 27, 2009 1:44 am

Parasight wrote:If you're playing H2H with the standard 9 CATs, you'd be a fool to overlook Dwight in the first 10 picks. He's easily a Top 5 H2H talent.

Not even close.

NetsForce · Post #13 » by **NetsForce** » Sun Sep 27, 2009 3:37 am

I"m kind of torn on Dwight. Since he's such a powerhouse rebounder and blocker (and pathetic free throw shooter), if you were to draft him with your 1st round pick it would give you a clearcut strategy right from the get-go.

Sometimes I feel like I'm scrambling to choose players that fit an ever-evolving strategy on draft day.

Post #14 » by **Curtis Lemansky** » Sun Sep 27, 2009 10:26 am

If you tank ft%,Howard is a top-8 pick and a great argument can be made whether he can sneak into holy top-7 this year(CP-Bron-Wade-Kobe-Danger-Dirk-Durant)

Players who are overdrafted IMO:
Rose
Westbrook
A.Randolph

Players whom I personally dont want in early rounds :
KG- Injuries concerns plus he is never around in fantasy playoffs.
Duncan- The same as KG
Caron Butler- injury prone and somehow his injury risk always flies under the radar.
Josh Smith- Took a huge step back last year and his game is really hard to build around.
Antwan Jamison- With all the offensive power in Wizards and with him getting up the age,I think this is the year where his production will drop across the board.

Calderon · Post #15 » by **Calderon** » Sun Sep 27, 2009 2:46 pm

In a H2H league, what are the four categories Dwight is bad at? Obviously he is bad at free throw % and assists, but H2h leagues dont count TO's. He is dominant in blocks, rebounds, and FG% while getting you at least 20 points a game and a steal. I wouldnt pick him i the top 10 though, more like the 15-20 range.

AussieBuck · Post #16 » by **AussieBuck** » Mon Sep 28, 2009 12:38 am

Calderon wrote:In a H2H league, what are the four categories Dwight is bad at? Obviously he is bad at free throw % and assists, but H2h leagues dont count TO's. He is dominant in blocks, rebounds, and FG% while getting you at least 20 points a game and a steal. I wouldnt pick him i the top 10 though, more like the 15-20 range.

Yes they do.

Post #17 » by **Curtis Lemansky** » Mon Sep 28, 2009 9:30 am

Depends on the league settings but in standard leaguesiyes turnovers are a category.

AussieBuck · Post #18 » by **AussieBuck** » Mon Sep 28, 2009 12:00 pm

The bottom line with this is that fantasy basketball is a mathematical game. There aren't any intangibles here, it's just stats. Some people just aren't that good mathematically. If instead of being bad at ft%, Howard was a negative scorer surely people would be able to see more clearly his true value. Ignoring the impossibility of it would anyone not tanking cats ever pick Dwight in the first round if he hit 80% of his ft's but scored minus 30 points a game?