Will wolves lose their lottery pick this year?

Wolves2011 · Post #1 » by **Wolves2011** » Fri Oct 2, 2009 1:10 am

If healthy the wolves could win too many for top 10 in Draft - lose pick to Clippers.

According to "Wages of Wins Journal".

The Wolves have 3 legitimate stars, based on their play last season

jefferson should produce 10 to 12 wins
[In the top 3 in PER among centers.]

Love should produce 10 to 12 wins
[In top 15 in wins produced at PF with only 25 minutes a game. More minutes means more wins produced easily top 10 with starters minutes which he gets this season.]

Sessions should also produce 10 or 11 wins.
[#10 in wins produced at PG with only 27 minutes per game. Again would be higher in more minutes per game. Please note at shooting guard he would have ranked #5 and he played most of his minutes at shooting guard. And again thats playing ONLY 27 MPG. At 30 to 35 mpg his production increases.]

[see their journal for details but it is based on statistics similar to PER and is based on statistics correlated to wins in games. He goes back and validates his model during the season, to see how valuable, points, rebounds, assists, steals etc are to winning a game.]

This is based on player performance last season, when healthy [In Jefferson's case it assumes he played a full season.]

These 3 players alone add up to 30 to 35 wins.

If Johnny Flynn is anywhere near the player, he showed in summer league he also could add 6 to 12 wins.

That pushes the wolves out of the top 10 in the draft and the Wolves lose their first round pick to the clippers [the pick is top 10 protected].

It only gets worse if anyone else, Ellington, Gomes, Pavlovic make positive contributions.

If the wolves could win say 45 games it would make it easier to attract a free agent next summer since they are one of the few teams with a large amount of cap room.

Its gets "messy" if they have say 38 wins.

Not enough to really help attract a free agent, but enough to lose their top 10 draft pick.

They could try to tank, but if they are close to making the playoffs, guys like Jefferson and the fans wouldn't be happy.

If it takes a while for the wolves to "jell" none of this might matter and they could end up in the low to mid 30's as most expect.

But don't be shocked if they win more and lose their first round pick this year.

Guess we'll have to wait a few months to see if its a problem.

Post #2 » by **revprodeji** » Fri Oct 2, 2009 1:40 am

First couple months will be ugly as the new players adjust to each other, new coaches introduce a system and the rookies/1st yr/brewer adjust to the pro game. after the all-star break we could show something, but not so early.

WoW loves rebounds.

berginator · Post #3 » by **berginator** » Fri Oct 2, 2009 1:42 am

I really don't think we're in danger of winning more than 30 games. What is our pick protected through?

Wolves2011 · Post #4 » by **Wolves2011** » Fri Oct 2, 2009 1:47 am

we're protected through the top 10, which should be about 35 wins this year, if the forecasts are right.

My NBA analysts expect the league to be more balanced.

More wins by teams on the bottom and fewer by teams on the top.

The wolves, thunder etc... have more talent.

the most recent forecast at basketball-reference.com had the worst NBA team with 30 wins.

moss_is_1 · Post #5 » by **moss_is_1** » Fri Oct 2, 2009 1:54 am

I really doubt it. Knowing our luck we'll have the 8th best odds but get the 11th pick and lose it to the Clippers.

Wolves2011 · Post #6 » by **Wolves2011** » Fri Oct 2, 2009 1:58 am

thats a good question, but I don't think you can lose a pick that way.

I think its based on pre-lottery standings.

but I might be wrong.

Does anyone know with certainty?

If you have a pick that is top 10 protected...and

if you have say the 10th pick pre-lottery and drop down to say #12 post lottery

do you lose that pick?

B Calrissian · Post #7 » by **B Calrissian** » Fri Oct 2, 2009 2:05 am

Wolves2011 wrote:thats a good question, but I don't think you can lose a pick that way.

I think its based on pre-lottery standings.

but I might be wrong.

Does anyone know with certainty?

If you have a pick that is top 10 protected...and

if you have say the 10th pick pre-lottery and drop down to say #12 post lottery

do you lose that pick?

No.

Post #8 » by **revprodeji** » Fri Oct 2, 2009 2:06 am

Your analysts?

It is based on post-draft. So if we are scheduled for the 11th spot but win the lotto then we get the pick. if we are slotted the 8th but get the 11th we lose the pick.

A couple years ago the grizz owed a pick to the pistons. It was #1 protected. If they got #1 they could keep it (lebron) if they got anything else it went to detroit. It was determined after the lotto.

B Calrissian · Post #9 » by **B Calrissian** » Fri Oct 2, 2009 2:15 am

The best example would be the Hawks in the 07 lotto. They owed the Suns a pick, it was top 3 protected. They were owed a pick by the Pacers, it was top ten protected.
The Hawks had the 4th worse record while the Pacers had the 11th.
After the lotto the Hawks had moved up to pick 3 and the Pacers moved up to pick 10.
The Hawks got both picks.

GopherIt! · Post #10 » by **GopherIt!** » Fri Oct 2, 2009 2:20 am

Projecting them for more than 30-35 wins would really be stretching it. This team lacks depth. Our top five: Jefferson, Love and Sessions, Flynn and arguably Gomes should be solid. Our bench though - Brewer, Pavlovic, Ellington & Hollins, etc. is not going to scare anyone. FYI, I like Brewer but I think he is still at least another year away from being a significant factor for this team. I'm not expecting much out of the other guys.

john2jer · Post #11 » by **john2jer** » Fri Oct 2, 2009 4:35 am

Last year 34 would have tied for the 10th spot with 3 other teams, putting us in the 10th-13th range. 34 was also the number of victories we would have had if you take the time from when McHale took over the team to when Jefferson went down with his injury and stretched it over the whole 82 games.

If we're slated to have the 9th pick pre-lottery, and then due to the lottery drop back to 12th, we LOSE the pick. It's all done POST-Lottery.

moss_is_1 · Post #12 » by **moss_is_1** » Fri Oct 2, 2009 4:47 am

We wont win that many games. I say 25 is about right. Depending on how well everything goes.

Post #13 » by **Worm Guts** » Fri Oct 2, 2009 12:07 pm

B Calrissian wrote:The best example would be the Hawks in the 07 lotto. They owed the Suns a pick, it was top 3 protected. They were owed a pick by the Pacers, it was top ten protected.
The Hawks had the 4th worse record while the Pacers had the 11th.
After the lotto the Hawks had moved up to pick 3 and the Pacers moved up to pick 10.
The Hawks got both picks.

Having the 11th worst record and picking 10th is impossible.

wolves_fan_82au · Post #14 » by **wolves_fan_82au** » Fri Oct 2, 2009 12:19 pm

lol no chance of us winning over 30 games,we dont have a true no 1 option

Post #15 » by **C.lupus** » Fri Oct 2, 2009 12:22 pm

GopherIt! wrote:Projecting them for more than 30-35 wins would really be stretching it. This team lacks depth. Our top five: Jefferson, Love and Sessions, Flynn and arguably Gomes should be solid. [b]Our bench though - Brewer, Pavlovic, Ellington & Hollins, etc. is not going to scare anyone. [/b] FYI, I like Brewer but I think he is still at least another year away from being a significant factor for this team. I'm not expecting much out of the other guys.

It scares me.
I'll be very happy if this team wins 30 games. Jefferson/Love/Sessions/Flynn is some good talent but a)Jefferson is going to be a bit rusty in the beginning, b)Love is just a second year player, c)Flynn is a rookie, d)most of the team is new, e)the coaching staff is all new, f)the team is very young.

Post #16 » by **Worm Guts** » Fri Oct 2, 2009 12:23 pm

wolves_fan_82au wrote:lol no chance of us winning over 30 games,we dont have a true no 1 option

Al Jefferson is easily good enough to be a number 1 option on a 30+ win team.

jade_hippo · Post #17 » by **jade_hippo** » Fri Oct 2, 2009 12:49 pm

Worm Guts wrote:
wolves_fan_82au wrote:lol no chance of us winning over 30 games,we dont have a true no 1 option

Al Jefferson is easily good enough to be a number 1 option on a 30+ win team.

I'd like to think so too, but truth is he isn't dynamic enough to single handedly win games. He isn't a force enough to keep the team in games defensively on his own. He is a number one option on offense but he's just another guy on defense at this point. I'd argue on most lineups he's the 3-4th best defender. He will give the a chance to win every night but in the end the rest of the team needs to pull through to help finish it off. He just doesn't have the tools to will his team to win like a Lebron/Kobe/Duncan does at both ends.

Post #18 » by **Worm Guts** » Fri Oct 2, 2009 12:54 pm

jade_hippo wrote:
Worm Guts wrote:
wolves_fan_82au wrote:lol no chance of us winning over 30 games,we dont have a true no 1 option

Al Jefferson is easily good enough to be a number 1 option on a 30+ win team.

I'd like to think so too, but truth is he isn't dynamic enough to single handedly win games. He isn't a force enough to keep the team in games defensively on his own. He is a number one option on offense but he's just another guy on defense at this point. I'd argue on most lineups he's the 3-4th best defender. He will give the a chance to win every night but in the end the rest of the team needs to pull through to help finish it off. He just doesn't have the tools to will his team to win like a Lebron/Kobe/Duncan does at both ends.

If you want to say that Al isn't good enough to be the number 1 option on a championship team, I'd agree with you, but we're talking about 30 wins. The Knicks won 32 games last year and their number 1 option was Al Harrington.

Devilzsidewalk · Post #19 » by **Devilzsidewalk** » Fri Oct 2, 2009 1:19 pm

I vote for win a bunch of games, get the owed pick out of our hair finally, and draft a steal w/ the Utah or Charlotte pick. Everybody's happy.

wolves_fan_82au · Post #20 » by **wolves_fan_82au** » Fri Oct 2, 2009 1:48 pm

Al Jefferson is easily good enough to be a number 1 option on a 30+ win team.

I'd like to think so too, but truth is he isn't dynamic enough to single handedly win games. He isn't a force enough to keep the team in games defensively on his own. He is a number one option on offense but he's just another guy on defense at this point. I'd argue on most lineups he's the 3-4th best defender. He will give the a chance to win every night but in the end the rest of the team needs to pull through to help finish it off. He just doesn't have the tools to will his team to win like a Lebron/Kobe/Duncan does at both ends.[/quote]

If you want to say that Al isn't good enough to be the number 1 option on a championship team, I'd agree with you, but we're talking about 30 wins. The Knicks won 32 games last year and their number 1 option was Al Harrington.[/quote]

knicks have a bit better chemistry,you can have a awesome team but if they dont work than you wont win games

ive been a bit hard on this team and i think its got to do with the whole rebuilding process again,its so annoying.i was happy the first time,but we keep trading away picks instead of keeping them and seeing what they can do