Hollinger's Positional Rankings

[ohara]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/rankings?pos=1

This is from Hollinger at ESPN Insider. Hope the Paste will take, but it may not. He ranked all positions by PER. For the main Bobcats, here is what he has:

PG: DJ at #15 Ray at #28
SG: Bell at #47
SF: Crash at #7 (yeah, baby!)
PF: Diaw at #37
C: Chandler at #36 (Okafor is at #13)

[fatlever]

bell and diaw are perfect examples of when PER is garbage for deciding a players ranking or value.

[thruthefire]

bell and diaw are perfect examples of when PER is garbage for deciding a players ranking or value.

If you're going purely off of PER, or in this case projected PER, then I would agree.

[CatNation]

so according to Hollinger, all of our players will be worse this year except DJ

and DJ and Wallace are our only above average players?

riiiight

[thruthefire]

Wait a minute, is he actually ranking players, or just ranking PER projections for each position? I think it's the latter. Well, duh, it's the latter.

[Fred Williamson]

I don't care. It's Hollinger.

PER is always garbage and you won't win with big individual stats, if the team doesn't perform well.

[Walt Cronkite]

How did I know this would be the response? Does no one have 5 minutes to spare to do some digging around before bashing something?

How Do Projections Work?: http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/s ... id=3055049

Basically, he has data from the past 20 years and similarity scores are determined based off of size, age and the past 3 seasons. Then based on the most similar players next season, a projection is made based off of the trends established. Final paragraph since I know most of you won't even bother clicking the link: "Of course, any number of other factors can be relevant to a player's performance -- how hard he trains, for instance, and injuries, coaching, and so on. But consider these numbers a median estimate for what the player might be likely to do this coming season, other things being equal. And then, if other things aren't equal, apply your own logic from there."

Also, from theupdated What is Per?: http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/s ... id=2850240

"Bear in mind that this rating is not the final, once-and-for-all answer for a player's accomplishments during the season. This is especially true for players -- such as Quinton Ross and Jason Collins -- who are defensive specialists but don't get many blocks or steals.

What PER can do, however, is summarize a player's statistical accomplishments in a single number. That allows us to unify the disparate data on each player that we try to track in our heads (e.g., Corey Maggette: free-throw machine, good rebounder, decent shooter, poor passer, etc.) so that we can move on to evaluating what might be missing from the stats."

[fatlever]

i'm not saying PER is always garbage... just sayign there are cases where PER doesnt give a good idea of a players impact or value (as your post mentions jason collins). bell and diaw are good examples of cases were PER is not a good indicator of their value compared to other players at their same posistions.

[Walt Cronkite]

Not stat, advanced or otherwise, will ever tell the whole story. Hollinger will be the first to admit that. The analysis of numbers can, however, yield insight that would go unnoticed otherwise, no matter how diligent we are in our viewing.

[Walt Cronkite]

Thoughts on Bell's scouting report?

"While many regard Bell as one of the game's best defensive shooting guards, his performance didn't live up to his reputation last season. The Bobcats defended better with him on the court than off it, but he was the only true shooting guard on the roster after the trade so that isn't really saying much. He didn't seem to pack the same intensity chasing players through screens or challenging shots, and he's clearly lost some athleticism.

Offensively, Bell is a straight jump shooter. He'll pop off one dribble on a pick-and-roll going to his right, but mostly he's a catch-and-shoot guy who hangs out on the weak side waiting for his chances. While he's a low-mistake player, his greatest use is helping to space the floor for others. "

[Fred Williamson]

More Haterade/ignorance:

http://www.slamonline.com/online/catego ... 50/page/2/

Jamison, Josh Smith, Kevin Martin, Ron Artest, Rudy Gay, Jason Kidd, Ben Gordon, Carlos Boozer, Josh Howard, Iverson, but not a single Bobcats player

[Walt Cronkite]

Diaw's scouting report also pimps out his defensive talents:

"Scouting report: Diaw is one of the most unique players in the league, a 6-foot-8 forward who handles the ball like a point guard, sees the floor and is unselfish to a fault. He's far too passive and coaches constantly cajole him to shoot more frequently, but he's retained a bad habit of passing up easy shots to force passes. Though a poor long-range shooter until last season, Diaw has always shot decently from midrange and hit 42.0 percent of his long 2s last year, his fifth straight year at 42 percent or better.

Diaw doesn't rebound or block many shots but is an excellent frontcourt defender. Because he moves so well, he's money in pick-and-roll coverage, plus he has enough size and toughness to defend most 4s on the block. He also can defend 3s on the wing, where his 6-8 frame becomes a real asset, and his unselfish spirit is helpful on D as he's a willing team defender. Both Phoenix (by 4.5 points per 100 possessions) and Charlotte (by 2.5 points) defended better with him on the court than off it, and this trend has been ongoing for several years now. "

[Walt Cronkite]

so according to Hollinger, all of our players will be worse this year except DJ

and DJ and Wallace are our only above average players?

riiiight

Wrong. DJ and Wallace are our only players based on similarity scores projected to be above average on offense (plus blocks and steals) relative to their turnovers (and misses and fouls).

Outside of Boris, who he mentions in the outlook could definitely have an improved season, who would you really cite in disagreement?

[BigSlam]

"Scouting report: Diaw is one of the most unique players in the league, a 6-foot-8 forward who handles the ball like a point guard, sees the floor and is unselfish to a fault.

I'd just like to go on record as saying that I don't think that Diaw's handles are that fantastic - and they are certainly not of PG standard.

[Fred Williamson]

yeah, and he's not an excellent froncourt defender, more like average or solid. Most of the small forwards in the league blow past him.

[Walt Cronkite]

"Scouting report: Diaw is one of the most unique players in the league, a 6-foot-8 forward who handles the ball like a point guard, sees the floor and is unselfish to a fault.

I'd just like to go on record as saying that I don't think that Diaw's handles are that fantastic - and they are certainly not of PG standard.

You say this now, but he's the Magic Johnson of a league where every player literally has their nondominant hand tied behind their back.

[kwohlge]

People are forgetting Diaw plays PF more often than not -- show me a power forward with his handle, shooting ability and post/pick-and-roll defense. I can only think of Garnett (obviously Garnett is better on offense and defense).

[BigSlam]

People are forgetting Diaw plays PF more often than not -- show me a power forward with his handle, shooting ability and post/pick-and-roll defense. I can only think of Garnett (obviously Garnett is better on offense and defense).

I don't disagree that he has a great PF with wonderful all around skills for the position, but I wouldn't list his handles as being as good as a PG's - which is what was said.