Hollinger 2009 - Jefferson 2, Love 4, Sessions 11

Wolves2011 · Post #1 » by **Wolves2011** » Mon Oct 5, 2009 11:21 pm

Hollinger has made his PER projections for next season.

Jefferson is ranked #2 among Center

Love is ranked #4 among Power Forwards

Sessions is ranked #11 among Point Guards

If Sessions was playing SG, and had the same numbers he would be #6, he played half his minutes at SG last season.

moss_is_1 · Post #2 » by **moss_is_1** » Mon Oct 5, 2009 11:24 pm

Love that high? That's nice to see. Jefferson and Love looked damn good last night.

Post #3 » by **revprodeji** » Tue Oct 6, 2009 12:08 am

wow. Having 2 guys in the top 5 of their position?!?!?

do you have a link sir?

Vega06 · Post #4 » by **Vega06** » Tue Oct 6, 2009 12:15 am

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/rankings?pos=6

jade_hippo · Post #5 » by **jade_hippo** » Tue Oct 6, 2009 3:47 am

after last nights game this season could be exciting. looks like we'll compete every night, but i don't expect too much more than 30-35 wins. Love looked like a fun combination of Brian Cardinal and Dirk.

dunkonu21 · Post #6 » by **dunkonu21** » Tue Oct 6, 2009 4:13 am

Al Jefferson was #6 overall in the whole NBA. Above guys like Dirk, Bosh and Kobe!

jade how did u see the game?

Biff Cooper · Post #7 » by **Biff Cooper** » Tue Oct 6, 2009 3:59 pm

Brandon Wright as the 4th best small forward. Really?? I haven't paid much attention to him, but I've always thought he had kind of been a bust as a pro.

Xand1 · Post #8 » by **Xand1** » Tue Oct 6, 2009 4:06 pm

Biff Cooper wrote:Brandon Wright as the 4th best small forward. Really?? I haven't paid much attention to him, but I've always thought he had kind of been a bust as a pro.

He doesn't get any minutes because Nellie hates talented young players, but when he plays he's pretty productive. PER loves him because his efficiency is awesome..

And I love these predictions. Unlike pretty much everyone at ESPN, Hollinger actually seems to like the Wolves. Love's a PER stud, so no surprise there, but he has a strange man-crush on Sessions. Anyway, if Love gets anywhere near 20 PER for this year that would be fantastic.

Wolves2011 · Post #9 » by **Wolves2011** » Tue Oct 6, 2009 5:53 pm

Wolves2011 wrote:Hollinger has made his PER projections for next season.

Jefferson is ranked #2 among Center

Love is ranked #4 among Power Forwards

Sessions is ranked #11 among Point Guards

If Sessions was playing SG, and had the same numbers he would be #6, he played half his minutes at SG last season.

Overall, among all players

Jefferson is #6
Love is #20
Sessions is #40

in the NBA.

Other teams with multiple players in top 40 in PER.

Atlanta - 1 player in top 40
Boston - 2 players in top 40
Charlotte - 0 players in ...
Chicago - 0 players .....
Cleveland - 2 players.....
Dallas - 1 player....
Denver - 2 players ..... [Note two close] [Close means about 17.7 or higher up to 18.19]
Detroit - 0 player.....
Golden St - 2 players.... [Note one close]
Houston - 0 players...
Indiana - 1 player.......
Clippers 0 players....
Lakers 3 players .....
Memphis 1 player....
Miami 1 player.....[Note one close]
Milwaukee 0 player...
Minnesota 3 players .......
New Jersey 2 players...
New Orleans 1 player.... [Note one close]
New York 1 player.....[note one close]
Thunder 1 player....
Orlando 2 player.... [Note one close]
Philly 2 player.....[Note one close]
Phoenix 2 player...[Note one close]
Portland 3 player....
Sacram 1 player....
San Anton 3 player....
toronto 2 player...
Utah 1 player... [Note two close]
washing 2 player....[note one close]

With a couple of exceptions ... it seems teams with more players in the top 40 [including those who are "close"] are Good teams....

Golden State, Washington and Minnesota.....seem to be the main exceptions. They had players who played few minutes....

Golden state had Brendan Wright and Anthony Randolph as "close" - both played limited minutes.

Washington had multiple injuries last season keeping guys from playing..

Minnesota had Jefferson out with injury, Love as a rookie averaged only 25 minutes and Sessions played only 27 minutes per game for Milwaukee.

Keep in mind the numbers above are a forecast for this season. So in the case of Houston for example, Yao has no forecast since he is injured. McGrady is forecast as lower PER, since he is recovering from injury. [They also have a bunch of players who are just above average.]

Oh.... one other point.... obviously a team might be very good and have fewer players in the top 40.

Cleveland and New Orleans come to mind. Both have players Lebron and 'Chris Paul that are almost "off the chart talented".

Chris Paul is projected at 29.51
Wade at 28.90
Lebron at 28.45

Jefferson is #6 at a much lower 23.05

Also other good teams might have a situation like Boston.

Only 2 players in the top 40 [KG and Rondo] but two others in the who are above average in Ray Allen and Paul Pierce [Average for PER is 15] Pierce is 16.91 and Ray is 16.38 [he's #77]

Devilzsidewalk · Post #10 » by **Devilzsidewalk** » Tue Oct 6, 2009 6:12 pm

I believe!

Biff Cooper · Post #11 » by **Biff Cooper** » Tue Oct 6, 2009 6:13 pm

Thanks for the team by team breakdown.

Devilzsidewalk · Post #12 » by **Devilzsidewalk** » Tue Oct 6, 2009 6:15 pm

now we need a team by team breakdown of the total PER of each team's starting 5, ready, set, go

Wolves2011 · Post #13 » by **Wolves2011** » Tue Oct 6, 2009 6:47 pm

Just out of curiosity thought I look at how many players on a team were just above average, which is 15 for PER.

Will count as "close" those who are 14.50 or higher.

Atlanta 4 players [1 close]
Boston 4 players
Charlotte 2 players
Chicago 4 players [1 close]
Cleveland 5 players
Dallas 4 players [1 close]
Denver 6 players
Detroit 5 players [1 close]
Gold Stat 6 players [1 close]
Houston 5 players
Indiana 4 players
Clippers 3 players [1 close]
Lakers 4 players [1 close]
Memphis 5 players [1 close]
Miami 2 players [2 close]
Milwaukee 3 players
Minnesota 3 players
New Jersey 2 players
New Orl. 3 players
Knicks 2 players
Thunder 1 player [1 close]
Orlando 6 players [1 close]
Philly 5 players
Phoenix 4 players
Portland 5 players [1 close]
Sacr 1 player [1 close]
San Ant 3 players [2 close]
Toronto 3 players
Utah 7 players
Wash 5 players

[Note: the previous analysis [previous posting] looked at players over [or close to the overall PER rank of #40], which was chosen because Sessions was ranked #40.]

The wolves had 3 players in the top 40, one of the better situations in the league.

Now looking at teams with above average players PER 15 or higher, the wolves still only have 3 players. So they have top players but little depth.

The list of above average players [PER 15 and over] above show a good correlation with being a "playoff" team.

[Note: they don't always win, if they don't play, due to injury - Washington - lack of playing time - Golden State - etc....but in most cases they do.]

But the teams with the most above average players don't always win championships. One or a few exceptionally talented players can also make a difference. The Lakers have only 4 above average players [with one close] and still won the championship this year because some of their above average players are FAR above average, in that Top 40 list I made earlier. Boston is another team, in a similar situation. Only 4 above average players but they are signicantly above average.

That would seem to be what the Wolves need to do. They have 3 players significantly above average, in Jefferson, Love and Sessions. If they can get 2 more players to play above average - or even one like flynn plays signicantly above average, we could have a fun year.