09/10 Season

[tsherkin]

Hey guys,

A debate in another thread got me thinking about the Bobcats, so I thought I'd come and see what you guys thought about the team. Where do you see the Bobcats at the end of the season? What kind of impact do you think the additions/departures will make on the offense compared to last year? And the continued development of guys like Augustin and Felton?

[arh1109]

There's been a lot of debate about this since the trade and at this point it's better to just wait for the season than continue to argue over something no one can prove or disprove. Chandler is completely different than Okafor and if he adds to the team chemistry that's great. 30-50 wins is a solid floor/ceiling. I'm just waiting to see Chandler scream in someone's face after dunking on them.

[Walt Cronkite]

Yea, I can't really see us winning less than 30 games.

[Paydro70]

My bet is on 35 wins. 50 wins would be crazy, since even 45 would be a huge and unlikely victory. I agree than less than 30 would be surprising though.

I think the offense will be about as bad as last year, maybe slightly better, with improvement from DJ cancelled out by Tyson Chandler. Felton will remain the same player he has been since his rookie season. We'll see what effect Flip has, his minutes will be coming out of all 3 guards most likely, which is probably a net gain for the offense.

[Bassman]

I never like predicting win totals so early, as there are many variables to work through in camp, much less those that occur during the season. So many "IF'S" to be sorted out. But if we have a season relatively free from serious injury, if we have improved production from our bench (as it appears we will), and if the Chandler experiment works out decently, I think we add 7 more wins to last year's total. That's a decent bump, and should get us in the playoffs. I think Murray and DJ will help us improve our bench production greatly, with DJ possibly replacing Felton at key moments later in the season. Nazr seems ready to produce, and if he can, will help us a lot. The Cats will still not be ready for prime time, but will win some of the types of games they lost last season.

Now, if we lose Chandler or Crash or Diaw for extended periods of time, all bets are off.

[Rich4114]

We'll most likely be a late lotto team again until we blow the team up for scrubs/draft picks. Then we just have to hope/pray we have a top 2 pick in a good draft.

[amcoolio]

I believe we'll be an elite defensive team now with Chandler who is a superior defender than Okafor, and while our offense will be below average, that will be the difference along with DJ's improvement to get us to 45 wins. I know all of RealGM and the media is down on us, but we have a better coach than 98% of the league, and being an elite defensive squad almost always guarantees you that you are a good, playoff worthy team (unlike an elite offensive squad).

Most here on the Bobcats board seem to forget that we went +.500 with Diaw and Bell playing (not counting the first 2 where they didn't play and the last 5 where Bell was injured and the Bobcats started tanking). We have a much better team this season than last, plus we don't have to start in that hole that we did before we traded for Diaw and Bell.


Not to mention history is on our side, because LB coached teams always make the leap in the 2nd year.

[Paydro70]

I believe we'll be an elite defensive team now with Chandler who is a superior defender than Okafor, and while our offense will be below average, that will be the difference along with DJ's improvement to get us to 45 wins. I know all of RealGM and the media is down on us, but we have a better coach than 98% of the league, and being an elite defensive squad almost always guarantees you that you are a good, playoff worthy team (unlike an elite offensive squad).

Most here on the Bobcats board seem to forget that we went +.500 with Diaw and Bell playing (not counting the first 2 where they didn't play and the last 5 where Bell was injured and the Bobcats started tanking). We have a much better team this season than last, plus we don't have to start in that hole that we did before we traded for Diaw and Bell.


Not to mention history is on our side, because LB coached teams always make the leap in the 2nd year.

Can you make a leap in the second year when only Felton, DJ, and Wallace have been here the full two years? Chandler, Hendo, Brown, and Murray have NO time with him, and they'll presumably be playing big minutes.

I also question how much improvement we can realistically expect out of DJ. He'll be better, no doubt, but he probably won't be playing any more minutes, in fact he might play less with the addition of two new guards.

Really what we might hope will improve is the play of the bench, since we've added guard depth. Our frontcourt rotation is still quite weak behind the starting lineup however, so I don't know how much we can expect unless Brown really just explodes.

[Walt Cronkite]

^He's referencing the fact that LB has always gotten his NBA teams to the playoffs in season 2.

[tsherkin]

Wow, this is a large rant.

Short Form: Okafor is a better defender than Chandler, even when Tyson's healthy (at last over the last 3 years or so, including Chandler's injured season). Charlotte isn't in a great position to make the playoffs, but if a lot goes right, they could squeeze into the 8th seed ahead of Detroit and/or Chicago, maybe Miami if they regress far enough. Larry Brown has a general trend of improving record in the second season with a team, and a smaller trend of improving offense. No clear pace trend except slower paces in the more modern eras. I'm excited to see how Brown manages this team, and hope he ups the pace, because that seems the only reasonable way to improve the offense given the team's roster.

The Long Form

I believe we'll be an elite defensive team now with Chandler who is a superior defender than Okafor,

FYI, you were already a top-7 defense without Chandler. FWIW, Chandler is NOT a better defender than Okafor, even when he's healthy. Chandler's a slightly worse shot-blocker than Okafor, a comparable defensive rebounder and no better at man defense. It's inaccurate to label him as superior to Okafor on D, and that's when he's healthy. He may well not be healthy, given the way teams have been passing him around (and passing him over) this off-season, and given last year's play.

If he's healthy, you're marginally worse on defense; how you do with him on offense is system-based; he's not as prolific as Okafor, but he's definitely a better option on the PnR rolling to the rim. He has magnet hands and finishes EXTREMELY well when healthy.

I'm not personally optimistic about Charlotte's chances this year given what other teams in the league have done, but amcoolio's point about Brown is true.

If you ignore the noticeable roster turnover and factor in Augustin's health (and assume Chandler is healthy), then there should be at least a slight improvement on the terrible offense from last year. And if you take that and match it against what the Cats were doing with a healthy Diaw (and assume Bell doesn't decline further), then it's possible that they hover around .500 most of the season (again, not factoring in competition from the improved EC and WC teams).

Then there's the possibility that Wallace plays 70+ games again, which would be significant. And there is the Larry Brown effect; he does tend to improve defense, he does tend to push players to improve upon their weaknesses and he does tend to see improvement from year 1 to year 2.

Brown's teams have seen the following improvements in year 2 from year 1 (NBA only):

-2, +3, +35 (addition of D-Rob), +18, +5, -3 (+21 the year after), +0 (54 wins both years in Detroit)

So there's a pronounced tendency to improve, and some of those teams did have similar roster turnover. He's a good coach who preaches defense and pushes his guys out of their comfort zones, moves pieces around, gets new guys in... he exerts a lot of pull as a proxy GM.

So I would expect Charlotte to be a little above last year's win total, hovering around 40, +/- 3 wins. They might squeeze into the 8th seed this year, which would actually be a major achievement given the depth of competition in the EC. Last year, Detroit nipped in with 39 wins, and that's not going to happen this year. Chicago may fade without Gordon (though the addition of Miller and Salmons mitigates that some, as would a healthy Deng).

I guess it all depends on how good the offense is. Last year, they were bottom 4 offensively. With Diaw on the floor, they were at 107.3 (which would be 22nd overall last year, and that's relative, because other stars had their teams well above that when they were on the floor).

So Charlotte muddled along offensively, despite playing outstanding defense. To be successful this year, in spite of the improvements elsewhere in the league, they're going to have to make a really BIG leap forward offensively.

Here are Brown's team ORTG and pace rank for years 1 and 2 for each of his NBA teams (with league rank):

DEN: 6th in pace, 5th in ORTG (102.2); 12th in pace, 10th in ORTG (104.4) [Improvement]
NJN: 4th in pace, 22nd in ORTG (103.0); 6th in pace, 19th in ORTG (101.6) [Regression]
SAS: 6th in pace, 23rd in ORTG (100.9); 11th in pace, 15th in ORTG (107.7) [Robinson]
LAC: 13th in pace, 21st in ORTG (105.8); 7th in pace, 17th in ORTG (107.4) [Improvement]
IND: 22nd in pace, 11th in ORTG (107.8); 25th in pace, 8th in ORTG (109.6) [Improvement]
PHI: 13th in pace, 21st in ORTG (102.8); 19th in pace, 23rd in ORTG (99.9) [Big Regression]*
DET: 24th in pace, 18th in ORTG (102.0)**; 29th in pace, 17th in ORTG (105.6) [Big Improvement]***

* But they won 21 more games the year after, bounced back to just under 102 in ORTG; then in 01 they won another 7 games and made the Finals in a weak EC after adding the DPOY and assembling a defensive team around a remarkably overrated Allen Iverson.

** NBA Title (injured Malone, Kobe rape trial)

*** Lost in Finals 4-3 to SAS

So we can see a general trend towards offensive improvement, though sometimes it's actually the third year where the big noise happens (as was the case in Philly). He's played at different paces, but generally slow. If that trend continues in Charlotte, they aren't going to improve that much, because they're geared towards speed, especially lacking significant muscle up front.

But Brown has played fast before, back in the 80s; if he goes back to that with this team, it could be interesting. And all of the above is subject to change if the team makes a significant trade in the middle of the season the way the Sixers did in 2001 when they nabbed Deke. I don't have a lot of faith in MJ as management, but it's definitely possible.

I'm quite interested to see Brown's 2nd-season impact this year.

[Walt Cronkite]

You obviously haven't been watching the games if you think Okafor is a better defender than Chandler!

I don't actually believe that, just giving you a taste of what some of us have been dealing with since the trade.

[countryboi]

from watching both players...they seem like they are about the same defensively but the reason why i would give the edge to chandler is he is taller and legit center....but meka more than makes up for that on offense

[Walt Cronkite]

But Okafor is stronger and has a more awesome name.

[SWedd523]

I never thought I'd hear the words Okafor, prolific, and offense, in the same sentence.

[tsherkin]

You obviously haven't been watching the games if you think Okafor is a better defender than Chandler!

I don't actually believe that, just giving you a taste of what some of us have been dealing with since the trade.

I have seen a little of Okafor; I have seen a LOT of Chandler, because I've been following him since he was drafted. He's not a very good man defender, he's a great defensive rebounder (but only about as good as Okafor) and his shot-blocker is about the same as Okafor's.

If this were 3 years ago, yeah, Chandler was a better defender than Okafor there, but even before he got injured, he was declining as a shot-blocker.

And then even if you consider all of that in the past and you expect 2006 Chandler to jump in and play for Charlotte, you still have to worry about whether he's going to be healthy or not, which kind of seals it for me.

If Chandler makes a significant impact on the Cats, it won't be defensively; if all goes well, he slips in and you don't notice a difference defensively. Ideally, you want to see him working with Augustin and Felton on the PnR, and just watching them toss lobs and hi-los to him so he can just dunk the ball 3 or 4 times a game.

That's what you want from Chandler.

I know you guys don't think so highly of Okafor and that his stats tend to overrate him a little, but Chandler isn't some savior figure, he's not better than Okafor in any major capacity except for the caliber of his hands, which will prove useful.

[tsherkin]

This thread has been a wee bit more negative than I intended for a thread within a team's own forum, so for that, I apologize.

On the plus side, if there's a year where you want to be in the lottery, this is it. There are a couple of REALLY interesting big players who look very promising, as well as some wings of note. I'd be taking a long look at Derrick Favors and Greg Munroe and imaging what they might be like on this team. Cole Aldrich, too, though he's not especially athletic. Ed Davis is looking pretty good, too.

If you do well but miss the playoffs, you could take a look at Solomon Alabi, who's big, mobile and has a decent touch out to around 15 feet.

[Walt Cronkite]

If we do well but miss the playoffs, we probably lose our first rounder to Minnesota (I think they own the rights these days).

[tsherkin]

If we do well but miss the playoffs, we probably lose our first rounder to Minnesota (I think they own the rights these days).

Well, at least you won't watch McFail wasting pick after pick...



That bites.

[amcoolio]

I really, really, can't wait until the season starts and all this BS about Okafor being a better defender and that his game will improve with Paul and how he'll magically learn to be great at the PnR and that you'll notice no significant defensive impact from Chandler goes away.

1 more month...

[tsherkin]

I really, really, can't wait until the season starts and all this BS about Okafor being a better defender and that his game will improve with Paul and how he'll magically learn to be great at the PnR and that you'll notice no significant defensive impact from Chandler goes away.

1 more month...

Okafor is a marginally better defender than Chandler, yes. His game may improve with Paul, but the reason Chandler took such a relatively large step forward was that he was the recipient of a lot of great passes on the pick-and-roll, and some relatively crappy ones that Okafor won't be able to catch. Emeka also can't jump like Chandler (and isn't as tall or as long), so he'll be simply unable to reach a lot of the lobs and high-los and what-not. Okafor will probably look about the way he did the last few years, something like 13-15 ppg on 53+% FG.

I think Henderson has a better chance to be a significant game-changer for Charlotte than Chandler; Tyson is good when he's healthy, but amcoolio, you're trying to make him sound like he's significaintly better on D, and he simply isn't. Or hasn't been.

Maybe Larry Brown will use him in a way that Chicago's various coaches and Byron Scott haven't thought of, but he's no better than Okafor, and statistically speaking (which is of course of less importance when discussing D), he's also not as prolific in the categories of defensive rebounding and shot-blocking, so it's not like he's dominating there to the point where you'd expect him to be better than Oak just on the basis of that.