Post#24 » by semi-sentient » Mon Oct 19, 2009 3:59 pm
He has a shot this year, but we have to stay healthy and play up to our potential. If we do then we'll have some serious separation in terms of best record and it could be enough to sway voters to select Kobe. Of course it also depends heavily on just how good LeBron and the Cavs are, but if the Lakers win 10 or so more games than the Cavs then Kobe could be the front-runner. LeBron's numbers are going to be a bit better than Kobe's out of necessity so the only way to compensate is to have considerably more wins. Kobe will also need to elevate his play whether that means being more efficient or being a better play-maker to offset his expected drop in scoring.
I personally think the Cavs will win less games this season -- probably less than 60. It's hard to imagine Shaq playing more than 65/70 games and with him going in and out it'll affect their chemistry. The uncertainty surrounding Delonte will also factor in. The main reason they won't win as many games is because I think they overachieved last season. Add in that the Celtics and Magic could very well have better records than the Cavs and it opens the door for Kobe to steal his 2nd MVP.
The "best player on a top 3 team" formula has produced better than 90% of MVP winners and in the past 20 years the only exception has been Steve Nash (05-06) when his team finished with the 4th best record. In fact, 85% of the winners in that same period were on a top 2 team (Kobe, Nash, and Iverson were the exceptions).
I don't think the Heat or Hornets will be good enough for Wade and CP3 to get the nod above Kobe, so it'll come down to him and LeBron once again. D12 might be up there as well as I think the Magic will have the top record in the East, but I don't think he'll be higher than LeBron or Kobe because the media has more of a fetish with perimeter players these days.
"Imagination will often carry us to worlds that never were. But without it we go nowhere." - Carl Sagan