S.I. Scouts forecast NBA season & Playoffs

[heathmalc]

Ian Thomsen; Inside the N.B.A.


Here is how they view the race in the East:

1. Boston Celtics (1.7)
2. Cleveland Cavaliers (1.8)
3. Orlando Magic (3.2)
4. Atlanta Hawks (4.8)
5. Washington Wizards (5.3)
6. Miami Heat (6.8)
7. Chicago Bulls (7.0)
8. Toronto Raptors (7.5)
9. Detroit Pistons (9.5)
10. Philadelphia 76ers (10.0)
11. Charlotte Bobcats (10.8)
12. Indiana Pacers (11.0)
13. New York Knicks (13.0)
14. New Jersey Nets (13.7)
15. Milwaukee Bucks (13.8)

The East promises to be the more entertaining conference, beginning with the fight between Boston and Cleveland for the top seed. The Cavaliers receive four votes to finish No. 1, but two other scouts -- anticipating that Shaquille O'Neal will have a negative impact -- pick them No. 3 or No. 4 in the conference.

Despite reaching the NBA Finals last season, the Magic receive no first-place votes and are viewed as the consensus No. 3 team. Atlanta faces a difficult challenge for the last home-court spot from Washington, while Miami, Chicago and Toronto will be tightly bunched for the last three playoff spots. As in the West, the scouts are almost unanimous in choosing the eight playoff teams, with the exception of outsiders Detroit, Charlotte and Indiana, which each receive a single No. 8 vote. There is also general agreement that New York, New Jersey and Milwaukee will be the bottom three of the conference.

Conference finals
Here are all six of their predictions for the Eastern finals:

Cleveland beats Boston
Cleveland beats Boston
Cleveland beats Boston
Boston beats Cleveland
Boston beats Cleveland
Boston beats Orlando

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/w ... uts.picks/

[L&H_05]

I just heard a bunch of 'We don't get any respect" cards shuffling in the Central Florida area...

[heathmalc]

I just heard a bunch of 'We don't get any respect" cards shuffling in the Central Florida area...

Uh huh.

[mcfly1204]

What do they expect considering they are steering away from what made them so good last season. They let their play making SF go for a go-to scoring SG. I realize that Orlando felt they needed a go-to guy late in games to get past LAL, but couldn't a healthy Nelson have played that role? I do not like the Brandon Bass pickup either. The more time he spends on the floor, the more time Orlando is playing traditional basketball. Ryan Anderson will do more for Orlando than Bass will this season.

[calibanPK]

How is Shaq a negative acquisition when compared to Ben and Sasha.....

That is amazing.

[MagicDyn]

09 Magic > 09 Cavs + (Carter > Turk) + (Nelson > Alston) + (Bass > Battie) + (Williams > Johnson) + (Anderson > Lee) = 10 Magic > 10 Cavs

Get pumped for the media picking the Cavs cause come July that is all you will have left. So save the link and cut and paste the story so you can print it next summer while the Magic are in the Finals. You can read it over and over again and transport youself back to this moment while you are wiping away your tears.

[TheOUTLAW]

Even if the Magic are better than the Cavs, that doesn't mean that they'd have the better record. The Magic were better than the Cavs last year and yet the Cavs had the better record.

I think you guys are trying too hard, this has nothing to do with how the talking heads think it'll play out.

[Niko23]

^


I laughed after reading : Carter>Turk

Anderson>Lee: Huh??

[B Mac]

We can play too.

Shaq>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Wallace
Parker>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>(gulp) Pavlovic
Moon>>>>>>>>>>>>Wally

And again Anderson>Lee: Huh??

[TheOUTLAW]

I didn't get that Anderson > Lee thing either. But I guess it's anything to try to prove a point.

[magicfan9109]

I agree with your upgrades. They are good!! Moon and Parker especially! But I'm not gonna lie Anderson is a good player. He is 6-10 shooter who spreads the defense. I think people will be surprised with his play. It will be a great season for both teams! I cannot wait till it starts!!

[Niko23]

Ok guys. After reading this BallBoy's post it sort got me thinking about doing some research. And here is what I found out:

Point 1

Hedo will not be missed? In the 4 Magic wins, his average point contribution (Points + Assists) in the 4th Qtrs alone was 13ppg. Not to mention he scored or assisted on 21 points in the 4th Qtr in Game One ALONE!! Your telling me he was not clutch in that series? Your telling me Vince "Fools Gold" Carter is going to repeat this?


Point 2

We got rid of Ben Wallace, Sacha Pavlovic, and Wally World. We replaced this with Shaq, AP, and Jamario Moon. I know, I know, this is not going to make any difference according to Magic fans. But in the 4 Cavs losses in the ECF, would you like to guess how many points those guys averaged? I mean they were three pretty decent rotation players so it has to be like 25ppg right?? Wrong. Those three averaged 4.25ppg COMBINED, including a GOOSE EGG in Game 1. Somehow I think Shaq/Moon/Parker/Powe will get a few more points than that........just a stretch.


Point 3

According to Magic Fans, Rafer Alston sucks and does not deserve to play in the NBA and Nelson is a cyborg built with body parts from Magic, Penny, and John Stockton. But in reality, in the four Magic wins, Alston averaged 17ppg and about 5 assists. Not too bad for a throw away player.


Point 4

Pietrus shot the ball extremely well. Maybe he will shoot it that well again. But we can only look at the numbers. So against the Cavs in a 6 game series, he shot 49% from the 3 point arc. Against the Celtics? A dismal 32%. Against the Lakers? A big improvement of 33% from 3. But I am sure its a coincidence.


That is all for now.

[magicfan9109]

Way to tear us apart. BTW, I don't think Rafer was a bad player at all, him and Jameer wouldn't have worked chemistry wise. You guys will dominate this season so don't worry about us. You guys are still scary good.

[L&H_05]

Why is it that I'm far more concentrated on Boston and what they're doing over the Magic ?

[jaypo]

Why is it that I'm far more concentrated on Boston and what they're doing over the Magic ?

Because you're educated. Let's see, you have a team that got to the finals because of 2 reasons- 1-their strengths were the Cav's exact weaknesses, and 2- Kevin Garnett got hurt. Now, factor in the fact that the Magic basically abandoned their gimick that got them to the finals and retooled to play into the Cav's strengths. On the other hand, you see a Celtics team that got healthy and just added to the existing core. The Magic tried to match Cleveland by making a blockbuster trade because Cleveland did. Boston actually tried to improve. Doesn't matter much though. Cavs over Spurs in 5!

[kirbs]

^


I laughed after reading : Carter>Turk

Anderson>Lee: Huh??

How is Turk > Carter.

Let me guess. "Intangibles". "Things that don't show up on the stats sheet". "Winning attitude".

There's nothing Turk does better. Turk was the 4th best player on the team last year. People remember a few "clutch" plays at the end of games, but ignore his overall production. Look at the Sixers series (first round). His production was awful. Had the rest of the team played that poorly, they wouldn't have even got past the first round. Yes, he hit that big three in the dying seconds, but had he shot better in the first place, they would have had a multiple possession lead and wouldn't have needed the three.


20.8 PPG
11.3 R+A+B+S/game
54.5% TS%
19.3 PER

>>>

16.8 PPG
11.2 R+A+B+S/game
54.1% TS%
14.8 PER


Even if you think Turk is better in "things that don't show up in stats", that can only make up for so much.

[L&H_05]

Couldn't care any less about the stats... How any can compare stats to a player in one situation to another in a completely difference situation and actually use that as their focal point of their debate is beyond me..

Regardless of stats-- I can say (typing for myself only) as a Cavaliers fan, I would much rather the Magic put the ball in VC's hands in the 4th quarter, under 2 minutes to go, of a one possession game as opposed to Turkoglu...

VC is probably a better overall player... Had a much better career... Yet, it's kinda like the Horry effect (to a much lesser degree)...Who do I want shooting that ball in a clutch spot ?

Robert Horry or Scottie Pippen ?

Love Pippen, much better overall player, one of the greatest of all time... Yet, give me Big Shot every time..

Turk's not as good of an overall player as opposed to VC, but, I just feel much more comfortable knowing the ball is in a player like VC's hands...That's not to suggest VC can't do it, because he most certainly can, but I'll take my chances with him.. Hell, if I was the Magic, the last play should probably be Shard's over VC anyways..

[heathmalc]

Regardless of stats-- I can say (typing for myself only) as a Cavaliers fan, I would much rather the Magic put the ball in VC's hands in the 4th quarter, under 2 minutes to go, of a one possession game as opposed to Turkoglu...

There are a couple schools of thought here:

The one that most people see is that Vince Carter is without question the better overall player, and will undoubtedly make it to the Hall-Of-Fame some day when his career is finished. There can really be no argument over this, as Vince has produced in Toronto without any assistance, and in Jersey, with Kidd and Jefferson.

The other school of thought is that of the people who believe that Turk was more important to the style of play that Orlando put on the court each night, than what Vince's importance will be in Orlando's current style.

One of Turk's huge (and I mean HUGE) advantages that he gave Orlando, was his size. He allowed Orlando to put a team on the floor that was extremely big. Orlando's only non-big player was their point, and they showed that Dwight's dominance easily covered that. Vince is a full hand shorter, and will be slower for most of the game. I say "most" because Vince still manages to run full-throttle for bursts, and during those bursts, Orlando will have a nearly unstoppable offense.

The problem is when Vince decides to just "go through the motions." Like everything else, this is something that Vince has done ever since we first saw him play for North Carolina, and was the main reason Antawn Jamison was drafted before him (they were team-mates).

I expect that Vince will play as hard as he can for this first season in Orlando, but when he finally understands that he just doesn't have the legs that he once did, he will likely go through the motions again until the playoffs. Once in the playoffs, Vince is still Vince, and he isn't "that" old yet, and I expect he will probably single-handedly win a game or two for the Magic. However, when all is said and done, Magic Johnson was right: Vince just doesn't have what it takes anymore to be "that" guy.

That is where I think the Cavaliers and Magic differ with their new additions. The Cavaliers do not expect Shaq to do much of anything except stand in the paint and make it harder for people to score there. He is not expected to win games. The Magic will need Vince to make-up for Turk's loss, and provide the wins that left with him.

Turk isn't better than Vince, but he fit better with Orlando, and he was a willing 2nd fiddle. Vince isn't, despite what he says. Magic fans will soon see that and become disenchanted with Vince and his antics.

[Niko23]

How is Turk > Carter.

Well first read my post on the first page:

Point 1

Hedo will not be missed? In the 4 Magic wins, his average point contribution (Points + Assists) in the 4th Qtrs alone was 13ppg. Not to mention he scored or assisted on 21 points in the 4th Qtr in Game One ALONE!! Your telling me he was not clutch in that series? Your telling me Vince "Fools Gold" Carter is going to repeat this?

I just have a difficult time imagining Carter being able to repeat this performance, assuming he is healthy to play deep into the playoffs.

I am not saying it is a landslide but......Magic fans speak as if Hedo was not very important in the Cavs series.

Lastly....just see what Magic Fans are saying about him on their VC thread.

[Johnny Firpo]

It's funny how insecure are you guys. All i read here is how the Magic got worse, and they're not a threat anymore. I know that series still hurts, but c'mon. Why not wait at least until the first regular season game between the two teams? And you're matchup assesments about the two teams are absolutely homerish. But for the argument's sake, let's say you're right, and they're not a matchup nightmare anymore. Shaq will defend Howard better, and will make him work on the other end, Moon can bother Lewis with his athleticism and length, and Parker will defend Carter, and shooting threes all day long on the other end. What if it still won't be enough, because Orlando just got better as a team?

You forget an important part, well, two actually. First, Nelson didn't even play in that series. I didn't read that in any of your "they're not a bad matchup anymore" assesment, and there were a lot... Second, they have some young players, and a young superstar, who improves his game rapidly, and will proably be better then he was last year. They have a very solid chance to become better, as a team, and their bench is definitely a lot better now. So why not wait and see if this thing really works with Shaq? You guys maybe right, and i'm wrong, but why all the talking when we doesn't even know how you guys will look with Shaq, and how Orlando will with VC? That's the beauty in sports, (almost) anything can happen, and there are no guarantees.