Sleeper v2.0 - The Forgettable

[jorgo]

"No such thing as a sleeper these days"

I read this quote somewhere in my research, and I have to agree.

There is so much information (cheat sheets/ADPs/etc) on the internet these days that sleepers (v1.0) just do not exist.

Players such as Anthony Randolph, Trevor Ariza, Courtney Lee just to name a few were considered sleepers, but come draft time, every manager has heard/read all the hype about the players and adjust their rankings accordingly. Often over-inflating their values to a point where the player must have that massive career year just to break-even on the draft pick used.

In my opinion, the new sleeper in this modern age is the list of Forgettables (sleepers v2.0).

Forgettables are the players who do not receive any publicity on fantasy sites/forums and as a result, slip down the cheat sheets due to the inflated values of "sleepers v1.0". They're the guys that fly under the majority of players' radars, and will provide you with solid and reliable #s.

While the season is yet to get underway, a few players I consider 'Forgettables' this year are:
- Jason Kidd ADP-26 (9th overall last year in 9 cat leagues - now has addition of Marion on fast break)
- Nate Robinson ADP-112 (55th overall last year in 9 cat leagues - Team has not changed)
- Leandro Barbosa ADP-74 (28th overall for last 2 months with coaching change - Team has not changed)
- Ray Allen ADP-42 (21st overall last year in 9 cat leagues)
- Ronnie Brewer ADP-123 (50th for last 2 months in 9 cat leagues - Korver injured->more time)
- Jason Terry ADP-80 (20th overall last year - addition of Marion will reduce MPG, but ADP of 80?!)
- Al Harrington ADP-69 (33rd last 2 months - team hasn't changed)
- Joakim Noah ADP-110 (53rd last 2 months when received 29mpg - should receive similar minutes)
- Troy Murphy ADP-37 (8th overall last year). This one is somewhat debatable considering Hibbert's development and Murphy's unsustainable shooting %s last year.

**Stats from Basketballmonster.com**


Hopefully this post will give you another angle to getting the most out of your picks on draft day and trades for the upcoming season.


Cliff notes:
- Sleepers no longer exist due to fantasy sites/forums
- Players who don't get any publicity, yet are solid players is where you get value out of a draft.
- Call them Forgettables.

[almatic]

I saw Lou Williams as a sleeper on a few sites... and I must say... he was pretty slept on. I nabbed him in the 11th round, 152nd overall.

[jorgo]

Lou at 152nd is a great pick! I think he'll have a great year with so many more mpg.

He was an early sleeper candidate, but wasn't one of the really hyped up sleepers like the ones mentioned.

It still comes down to the nature of your league and how competitive it is. The more competitive, the more overvalued the sleeper v1.0 candidate is - generally.

[almatic]

I agree with you completely on that.
Dirk became a 'forgettable' in my draft, he hell to me as the 12th overall pick.

I was appalled at the fact that some fool took KG 7th overall in my draft lol.

[AshyLarrysDiaper]

Great topic, great list.

I've done a few mock drafts for my 12 team H2H 9 Cat league and I get Jason Terry in the 7th or 8th round every time. I don't even worry about whether he'll be there. He's just one of those guys that nobody gets excited about taking and then we all marvel at his stats off the bench once the season starts.

I also like Tyrus Thomas as a forgotten man. He had a great second half last season and he's in a contract year.

Bynum: if you get him in the late 4th or early 5th, AND he somehow manages to stay healthy, he could win your league for you. The injury risk doesn't scare me at all at that point in the draft.

[NetsForce]

Yeah I can't believe that I passed up Nate Robinson for Mario Chalmers ... I'm still kicking myself over that.

[Kerrsed]

I think i need to put Yi in this thread.

Starting PF. Has had an awesome pre-season. Seems more aggressive this year (someone FINALLY lit a fire under his ass). He could put up some decent numbers this year and is highly overlooked. I just waived Rush to pick up Yi yesterday, and after seeing the Nets game tonight, i have no regrets about it.

[Breakdown777]

Jason Kidd - VERY old/injury risk/could fall off at any minute/VERY OLD
- Nate Robinson - I agree (if you can handle FG% and TO)
- Leandro Barbosa - I agree but a few recent articles have spiked his value. He was on the front of ESPN's fantasy hoops page as a sleeper. He's more likely a vol. 1 now.
- Ray Allen - OLD, and gets hurt like every other year
- Ronnie Brewer - I agree (pitiful FT% though) He also gets solid assists for his position.
- Jason Terry - I agree (I love terry this year).
- Al Harrington - Jordan Hill could eat minutes, and Curry is supposedly going to play, but ill believe that when i see it
- Joakim Noah - Just noticed today that even with the Brad Miller timeshare he will put up excellent stats for where he is getting picked
- Troy Murphy - Hurt often, highest shooting %s of career. I don't think he will be as good as last year or even as close to warrant the 2nd and 3rd round picks.

A few I would like to add -
Brendan Haywood - two seasons ago when he wasn't hurt he averaged like 8 boards and 2 blocks, and he's falling to the 12th round or undrafted. PLUS Jamison is out for 3-5 weeks. Instead of reaching for Oden in round 9-10, just grab Haywood in 12 for equal production.

Tyrus Thomas - Why is everybody scared of this kid? He'll have better production than anthony randolph this year, watch out.

David Andersen - This one is shakey, but he's a legit 7 ft tall and the next tallest guy on houstons roster is 6'8. I think he'll be this years Garbajosa.

Al Horford - Before he was hurt he was putting up excellent stats 20-10-2-1-1.5, and he never goes 4 picks higher than his ADP, Capable number 1 center in round 5-6.

Bogut- he is an injruy risk, but on that team he can put up 15 & 10 with 2 blocks easy.

Allen Iverson - One off year and he drops from 13th overall to 115? WAKE UP! Everyone is forgetting that his value last year was 110, you think he'll be worse?

Jarret Jack - He'll et enough minutes to be as solid as he was laster year. He never gets taken unless it's some smuck on autopick. He'll be good for a 3,, a steal,, 4 assists, and solid %'s

This is fun - we should keep going. Feel free to argue my forgetables.

[jorgo]

Kidd: Despite age, is not an injury risk. Doesn't have the back issues that Nash has, and hasn't missed any significant time due to injuries for a long long time. Happily take him with my 2nd rd pick.

I agree, Barbosa has been creeping up the draft lists.

Murphy misses a few games each year, but no real major injury risk.

I'd much rather Oden than Haywood. Even if I have to take him 4 rounds earlier. This isn't to say I don't like Haywood (I do), I just rate Oden to put be top 80.

Tyrus - I like

David Andersen - are you an Aussie as well Breakdown? Can't see him having any real impact into the top 150 for season.

Horford: "Before he was HURT..". Pretty standard ADP vs value when you take it all into account.

Bogut: Will miss 15 games again with back spasms. But production will be there.


I'll come back with a few more tomorrow....

[Breakdown777]

I'd much rather Oden than Haywood. Even if I have to take him 4 rounds earlier. This isn't to say I don't like Haywood (I do), I just rate Oden to put be top 80.

David Andersen - are you an Aussie as well Breakdown? Can't see him having any real impact into the top 150 for season.

Horford: "Before he was HURT..". Pretty standard ADP vs value when you take it all into account.

Bogut: Will miss 15 games again with back spasms. But production will be there.

I'll come back with a few more tomorrow....

I'd rather have Oden too, but if someone reaches for him in the 7th or early 8th, I'm not freaking out because I know there are decent options avaiable.

I am not an Aussie, I just can't get my head around Scola, Hayes, and Landry playing all the minutes at C. I do think he'd be a huge reach in a 12 team league though. But like Garbajosa, he will probably be that add/drop constantly guy because of a decent game mixed in with inconsistent/foul prone games. I know Garbajosa got more rebounds in TOR, so maybe it's not an accurate prediction. I like andersen as the guy absolutely nobody is talking about who might be roster worthy some point in the year.

Horford - You are right with the point you made here about injury effecting ADP. He seems like a young well build guy who shouldn't get hurt all the time.

Bogut - I think the trick with Bogut is you need to draft him expecting him to miss games. If you take him as your 2nd or 3rd C without covering up his missed production, you'll fail.

one more

Mike Conley - I can't figure him out, like much of Memphis. But i do think he does fall pretty late due to the time share scares. He is probably worth where he would get drafted if autopick didn't severely help his ADP.

[jorgo]

Yeah that whole Memphis situation is one I haven't been able to come to terms with.

I was really high on OJ Mayo, but then started thinking about how Iverson is going to play into the picture. Conley as well. He finished off so well last year, but there are just too many question marks.

I just stayed away from all three.


I've been trying to work out a line that Arenas may put up this year. He's said he wants to be more of a pass-first guy, so his assists should go up around 7 I'd say, and scoring will be around 21-23ppg.
He'll be a little slower/less explosive, so steals should take a small hit (1.5pg).
So overall I'm thinking:
21ppg, 7apg, 3.8rpg, 1.5spg, 0.3bpg, 1.5 3pm, FG% .405, FT% .810
Which probably puts him at a top 40 player. That FG% will be tough to swallow.



Another topic that should really be discussed is what injuries that players have recovered from/recovering from that could linger and cause missed time.

I'll always stay away from guys who have the following problems:
- Hamstring strains/tears.
Once you have a problem, you have it for life. eg. TJ Ford, Iverson, Pau Gasol, Rudy Fernandez. (Stephen Jackson just had slight strain, so monitor him closely)

- Back spasms
Every year there's a few guys that continually have back problems (spasms), and it frustrates the hell out of us. eg. Steve Nash, Tracy McGrady, Kirilenko, Okur, Bogut, Ronnie Brewer, Varejao, Rudy Fernandez, Gallinari

While I'm on the topic of guys I'll stay away from.... Pau Gasol.

There is nothing convincing to suggest he can repeat last year's efforts of top 12 #'s. With Bynum back in the mix and his latest hamstring strain, you won't see me taking this guy in the top 30. Unless it was purely for trade value. But if he's falling that late, no other manager wants him either. Expect top 35 #'s, with at least 12 missed games.


Rudy Gay was a forgettable, but is now finding his way back up the rounds due to a solid preseason. Sure he'll lose a bit with Randolph in town, but he couldn't do any worse than last year.

Zach Randolph is another that puts up good numbers, that falls every year. I know he doesn't get any blocks, but neither does David Lee. I'll take him in the 7th.

Gallinari is certainly worth a 14th rounder on. D'antoni loves him and has publicly stated that. Will get time in one of the most fantasy friendly system there is. As long as his back holds up....

[vincecarter4pres]

I have been "stealing" Kidd, Allen and Terry in almost every league I am in.
In an 11 team roto league I have all three and got them in rounds 3, 4 and 8 respectively.
How can I pass that kind of value?!
Kidd and Allen's #'s weren't even that eye popping where they will land outside the top 30 so I feel there really isn't risk and Terry in the 8th?!
Crazy.

I would say guys like Rush, CDR and Tyreke Evans are examples of some of the very rare true sleepers left out there.

Sometimes I hate all the fantasy articles. I know who the sleepers are a week before the articles are out, but once it is out I have to rush to pick up guys and adjust draft strategies.

[jorgo]

I love digging up posts from the start of the season and seeing how my/other people's predictions go. I think most info on this thread was pretty spot on.

I've been trying to work out a line that Arenas may put up this year. He's said he wants to be more of a pass-first guy, so his assists should go up around 7 I'd say, and scoring will be around 21-23ppg. He'll be a little slower/less explosive, so steals should take a small hit (1.5pg).
So overall I'm thinking:
21ppg, 7apg, 3.8rpg, 1.5spg, 0.3bpg, 1.5 3pm, FG% .405, FT% .810
Which probably puts him at a top 40 player. That FG% will be tough to swallow.

Arenas' stats for season: 22.6ppg, 7.2apg, 4.2rpg, 1.3spg, 0.3bpg, 2.0 3pm, FG% .411, FT% .739
#39 ranking on BBM. Just forgot the part about bringing guns into the locker room.... damn.

As for guys to avoid due to injury: TJ Ford, Iverson, Pau, Rudy, Nash, McGrady, Kirilenko, Okur, Bogut, Brewer, Varejao, Gallinari Pretty accurate with all of them except Gallinari.

Guys mentioned as the forgettable sleepers: Rudy Gay, Zach Randolph, Gallinari, Noah, Jason Terry. All having big years. Though I missed on a few of the 3pt specialists at the top (Nate, Barbosa)

And the guy I have a man crush on is now in the top 10 - Jason Kidd.


Players mentioned by others in the thread: Lou Williams, Dirk, Haywood, Bogut, Jarrett Jack

Good call on Tyrus having a better season than Randolph!