WizBoard 09-10 Season Predictions Thread

[nate33]

I'm pretty sure it's flexible. I know they've added additional Wizards games in the past. I can't complain. We won 19 games last year. Who wants to watch us?

[Zerocious]

After seeing the first game I think this team can win 50. The effort on defense and with the boards was good. I'm going with 50-32.

kind of defeats the purpose of 'predicting' when you wait until you've watched the first game

[ZonkertheBrainless]

Yeah, I'm thinking I should revise my prediction up to 55 or so now, but too late I guess. We'll see, still have to worry about health and so on. But we're such a deep team now it shouldn't matter as much, *KNOCKS ON WOOD VERY LOUDLY*

[ZonkertheBrainless]

I must say, I like Doc's balls.

I mean, their prediction! I like Doc's balls' prediction.

[JonathanJoseph]

I haven't visited the board in for a month or so, but I think folks will remember that I made my prediction of 53 wins quite clear earlier in the summer. Hopefully you can make an exception for me.

Last night did, and yet did not, surprise me. I expected some sort of slow start, given the absense of Jamison, some rust on Arenas and a general newness of the scheme/chemistry/flow etc. What shocked me is that all of those things showed up and yet we still beat a very good basketball team on the road.

Too versatile. Too many weapons. No identifiable weaknesses (our frontcourt is actually pretty deep). This season is going to be a HELL of a lot of fun.

[fishercob]

I haven't visited the board in for a month or so, but I think folks will remember that I made my prediction of 53 wins quite clear earlier in the summer. Hopefully you can make an exception for me.

Last night did, and yet did not, surprise me. I expected some sort of slow start, given the absense of Jamison, some rust on Arenas and a general newness of the scheme/chemistry/flow etc. What shocked me is that all of those things showed up and yet we still beat a very good basketball team on the road.

Too versatile. Too many weapons. No identifiable weaknesses (our frontcourt is actually pretty deep). This season is going to be a HELL of a lot of fun.

Welcome back JoJo. Your contributions were great at the end of last season. I hope we see more of you!

[WizStorm]

I haven't visited the board in for a month or so, but I think folks will remember that I made my prediction of 53 wins quite clear earlier in the summer. Hopefully you can make an exception for me.

Last night did, and yet did not, surprise me. I expected some sort of slow start, given the absense of Jamison, some rust on Arenas and a general newness of the scheme/chemistry/flow etc. What shocked me is that all of those things showed up and yet we still beat a very good basketball team on the road.

Too versatile. Too many weapons. No identifiable weaknesses (our frontcourt is actually pretty deep). This season is going to be a HELL of a lot of fun.

Looking back at your posts before your pre-season hiatus, I don't have any issues adding you to the big board at 53 wins.

On 9/15/09, posted...
viewtopic.php?f=35&t=941564&start=45

Anyone read Jamison in the Wizards Insider today? He agrees with me. Anyone talking about 5th/6th in the east is reading too much into the 19 win team and not enough into the roster and coach that we'll be trotting out in 6 weeks.

53 wins is the floor. I'll be here to eat crow if necessary.

Further- Turkoglu is more of a winner than Carter so there are questions there, Shaq is no longer the player he once was and may cause problems in Cleveland where chemistry was their biggest factor last yaer (outside of Lebron).

Kevin Garnett has still not been cleared to return. If you think a 33 year old with a knee problem is going to be healthy enough to play in the NBA full time you are kidding yourself. Boston's run is likely over.

On 8/16/09, posted...
http://www.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=937551&p=20548357&hilit=+53+wins#p20548357

Seems that even those Piston fans who think highly of the Wiz think about 50 wins is possible. Here's why that number is too low. It has been so long since Arenas/Butler/Jamison have been healthy at the same time that everyone, experts included, have forgotten how good they were. The Wizards were 33-21 before the injuries started. 33-21 is 60%, or 49.5 wins over 82 games. The Big 3 were a 50-win pace team when the rotation included Etan Thomas, Jarvis Hayes, Michael Ruffin and Jared Jeffries.

Needless to say the Wizards roster is far, far superior at this point. I will be surprised at anything less than 53 wins (assuming relative health).

If anyone has any issues, please let me know (either mail me or post any objections).

[doclinkin]

I must say, I like Doc's balls.

I mean, their prediction! I like Doc's balls' prediction.

I'm pretty attached to them myself...

[Zerocious]

I must say, I like Doc's balls.

I mean, their prediction! I like Doc's balls' prediction.

I'm pretty attached to them myself...

and them to you

[hands11]

Well given what we were able to see of them in the preseason with players out, etc, I don't think most would have thought they would look that good that soon. Hell, we didn't even know who was starting.

After what I saw last night, I think it's far to say most people guess about 5-7 low.

50 something wins looks doable depending on something that will not be mentioned.

[JonathanJoseph]

I haven't visited the board in for a month or so, but I think folks will remember that I made my prediction of 53 wins quite clear earlier in the summer. Hopefully you can make an exception for me.

Last night did, and yet did not, surprise me. I expected some sort of slow start, given the absense of Jamison, some rust on Arenas and a general newness of the scheme/chemistry/flow etc. What shocked me is that all of those things showed up and yet we still beat a very good basketball team on the road.

Too versatile. Too many weapons. No identifiable weaknesses (our frontcourt is actually pretty deep). This season is going to be a HELL of a lot of fun.

Welcome back JoJo. Your contributions were great at the end of last season. I hope we see more of you!

Much appreciated. I will be around some now that the season has started. There just wasn't much to talk about in the preseason given that nothing had changed for me since the summer and my summer optimism looks to be on target so far.

[doclinkin]

44 wins.

Gilbert is recovering his confidence and range, it may take time. Problem is without reliable outside gunnery it's too easy to zone up and clog the middle for him to drive into traffic, lose the ball, etc. Endangers his recovery if he's not careful. But being careful also endangers his confidence and swagger. Teams need a superstar to succeed at a high level, pass-first Gilbert ain't it. Gilbert is most dangerous when he can kill you from too far out to guard and he can blow past you if you play him too tight. Scouts have already begun to realize how to play him.

We're a cute jumpshooting team, but lack the ability to shoot from long range right now. Got no reliable lowpost nothing. With Jamison out this is compounded early, outside and in, at a time when the team is still learning the offense and trying to synch. With Jamison returning, and maybe regaining his touch, the team will have to undo any progress and find the right role for him. Until then it's too easy to blame his absence for team struggles. Ready made excuse.

We're deep -- but deep in mediocrity. Okay, maybe that's a bit steep: we're deep in tier B players. And we're deep at only one position: 2-guard. We actually have quality depth at only one position: SF. Caron, Mike Killer, and Jamison is three-deep in players who could start for most any team. Or be the 6MOY candidate otherwise. But at 2-guard we have a choice between a one-time 'worst starter in the league', or a too-short combo guard, or a one-dimensional scorer who couldn't start on a 19 win squad, or Mike Miller: versatile, team player, not a go-to scorer, a third option shooter who prefers to defer.

We have no depth at PG and Center. We've used up our depth at PF by starting out with an early injury. Which means too many early minutes for Oberto, which threatens the plan to balance long-term depth, and nixes the option of playing him at the back-up center, the position in the system where his lack of offense matters less. With no midrange jumper he has less utility in the high-post screen attack, for instance.

And the PG issue is deadly: the system is less equal-opportunity, the only way we get touches for Caron (in particular) is if Gil feeds him the ball. Or if Mike Miller/FabO do on the second pass. If Caron's no longer an equal part of the offense (and no longer a team captain --mistake in my opinion) he becomes our most desired trade bait, but has less positively destructive effect. Without the offensive spacing of the last system, Caron is gunning in traffic coming off screens. Not yet his best skill set. And when Gil is out the beta player here (Foye) tends to play the one-man game, hasn't learned yet to let the sets develop and spread the ball. In any case those 4-5 assists per game that Caron used to dish are mostly gone since he only touches the ball when Gil/Foye decides he should.

To win, a jumpshooting team has to rely on execution and chemistry. But chemistry comes from familiarity, players discovering their roles in the system, coaches learning how to maximize their strengths and find the right mix. That takes time and repetitions. That takes players who have been first-option attackers discovering comfort in a roleplayer status. You can no longer count on the intuitive confidence developed between the Big Four. They're in different roles, different places on the floor. The rhythm has altered.

Defensively: we start two white guys. Got to be an axiom of defense that the team that starts a couple cousins is bound to foul a bit just to stay in the game. My hacker cracker brethren.

But we have a pretty bright coach who perceives adjustments to make in-game, and can draw up plays that succeed off the time-out or inbound. He's got a defensive system that works to some team strengths (even if we still give up too many outside bombs as of yet). He's got an offensive mindset that ought to be able to make good use of the talents displayed in live ammo games, using even losses as a learning experience.

Ultimately whatever our early struggles I suspect we ought to be getting better as we go. Jamison returns and we can try some ultrabig lines. Youngsters slowly become veterans and improve. The system undergoes tweaks to suit personnel. And if we start slow, still there's no reason we won't finish hot. Win streaks, players unconscious from outside, unselfish play becomes contagious. And ultimately Gilbert starts having fun again. Even if he pretends not to admit it.

And it's very possible that Ernie listens to trade talks this year for a midseason surprise that suits Flip's desire. That is where depth has the biggest real benefit: if you can use it to upgrade a starter.

I'm thinking 7th-8th seed, leapfrogged by a handful of teams. I'm guessing the Bulls, Raptors, Indiana will be much improved. Larry Brown always builds better teams over time. There is always a dark horse team. Miami has DWade who beats teams by himself and whose squad won't be worse, if healthy.

1. Orlando
2. Cavs (injuries to bigs means LeBron has to carry the team again. Better supporting cast helps)
3. Boston
4. Hawks (may jump Boston as youth develops and the greybeard Celts suffer attrition)
5. Heat? (Dwade does his thing and carries the team, making everyone look better, as usual).
6. Bulls? (dark horse surprise team, deep youth developing, good chemistry, good D)
7. Raptors? (or another steady performer among the second level scrum)
8. Wiz. (scrapping into last place with a late season hot streak, despite dings and set-backs along the way)

Postseason? Well naturally we win out and hoist the championship...

Just saying, I'm not terribly concerned, things are progressing about as expected. Yeah we're in the bunker, but stick to your guns, this is just the first wave, we'll get our chance to mow 'em down. The enemy is fierce and skilled but we've been undermanned and undergunned before and still manage to survive, are we not wiz fans? Rah.

[fishercob]

Here's what I've been thinking lately. I know, you're all dying to know.

I think that as easy and frequent a target Jamison has been in these parts, he may be the heart and soul of this team and we may really struggle without him early on. The first 15 are tough. I wouldn't be shocked if we went 5-10 out of the gate.

But then again, I figured injuries in to my 50 win projection. And yeah, chemistry is an issue -- specifically that b/c of injuries and illness a lot of our key guys haven't played much together. And I think that's real. BUt I also cannot get away from how talented this team is. Again, look at the roster of the 45 win squad in 04-05 and look at this one. Look at the coaching staffs. Fellas, any way you slice it, Flip Saunders can coach.

I don't see us as shallow at PG. the James/Foye combo stacks up well against most backup PG's in the league -- especially when they're only going to be needed for 10-15 mpg.

Finally, I think that we're under-rating how good the Wiz offense is going to be. The efficiency of our offense is going to put so much pressure on the opposition; they'll be adjusting to us rather than vice versa. Opposing offenses will be pressing in order to keep up. We're going to just score our way to a lot of wins, and not in the WIlt Chamberlain sense.

Sticking with 50-32.

Here's hoping the second half of the prediction is as prescient as the first....

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Wizards are 5-10, but I think they'll win 42 to 45 games, fisher.

Flip's mixing up the roster now and I think Blatche and Young will continue to be steady, and that McGee is going to get better and better. Last game against Charlotte will prove to be an aberration, I think.

[fishercob]

Last year I went all negative and predicted 33 wins and looked like a pie-eyed optimist when all was said and done. The prior years I was all pie-eyed optimist and we know how that turned out.

My best guess for this year?

Bitching about the defense from day one. It wasn't all Eddie, fellas, and leopard doesn't change it's spots. Health isn't going to be any good either. The Furious 5 (wasn't that the name...?) will be in a full throated roar within 3 weeks and the ship be sunk by the All Star Break.

I'm going with last years number...33.

And I hope I'm wrong as hell. I doubt it though.

We seem to have a winner...

[Donkey McDonkerton]

We pretty much all failed

[dandridge 10]

Ok, now that the preseason is over and we know about Jamison, I'm ready to make my prediction. At the beginning of the preseason, I was going to guess 49 wins. However, I think I am going to drop to 42-40. I want to be more hopeful, but you can't ignore the following facts:

1. This team is going to struggle out of the gate due to Jamison's injury, lack of cohesion from new coach/players, and Arenas being rusty.
2. We are going to get killed on the defensive boards this year as none of our big men, with the exception of an undersized Jamison, are good defensive rebounders.
3. Although I think our defense might improve somewhat, we are still going to struggle on the defensive end. You just can't hide the fact that this team is primarily made up of below average defenders.
4. The lack of depth in the frontcourt is going to hurt big time. Blatche will continue to be widely inconsistent, disappearing at times and McGee is no where near ready to be left on the floor for any extended amount of time. He is just too lost on defense. It will not help that Blatche, McGee and Oberto all are foul prone.
5. This team is just snake bit when it comes to injuries. I have no confidence that this team will remain healthy for most of the season.

Well, there it is. My heart wants to have hope and say 49+ wins, but my head says it aint going to happen. New coach and some new players, but same old jump shooting, non-defensive, soft team = 42 or even less wins.

Ha, I was close with my prediction, especially with the qualifier of "even less wins" prediction! And then Nate had to call us negative nillies and I raised my prediction to 45.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Updated predictions...
______________________________________________________________________________________________
53-29 FreeBalling, gesa2


50-32 AgentOvechkin08, Ruzious, ZonkertheBrainless, fishercob
49-33 wemolwermol777, montestewart, Joe_Wiz
48-34 zaRdsAndZeRos, jholmbe1, go’stags, DallasShalDune, jimij, Donkey McDonkerton, Hoopalotta, JWizmentality
47-35 keynote, mls737, bulletproof_32, gibertgoes05, Pradamaster, JAR69
46-36 Zerocious, WizStorm, Pollinator, BigA, greendale, adarsh1
45-37 DaRealHibachi, nate33, Gilbert0Arenas, LyricalRico, NoVaO, hands11, dobrojim, Dat2U, dandridge 10
44-38 closg00, Severn Hoos, long suffrin’ boulez fan, go'stags, doclinkin
43-39 floydfan29, daSwami, mohammed10, miller31time
42-40 P’Oed, tkunit, MJG, pancakes3
41-41 Wiz99
40-42 gowiz999

38-44 Chocolate City Jordanaire
37-45 no D in Hibachi, Rafael122

35-47 lupin

33-49 Cramer
______________________________________________________________________________________________

Be sure to check that the updated tallies are correct. If you're not on the board yet, you have until tip-off tonight to make your prediction (or if you lack the courage of your convictions and want to change your posted prediction).

Looks like Cramer and lupin have the best predictions so far.

[no D in Hibachi]

FINAL predictions ... locked in:
______________________________________________________________________________________________
53-29 FreeBalling, gesa2


50-32 AgentOvechkin08, Ruzious, ZonkertheBrainless, fishercob, Shanghai Kid
49-33 wemolwermol777, montestewart, Joe_Wiz
48-34 zaRdsAndZeRos, jholmbe1, DallasShalDune, jimij, Hoopalotta, JWizmentality,
Krizko Zero
47-35 keynote, mls737, bulletproof_32, gibertgoes05, Pradamaster, JAR69
46-36 Zerocious, WizStorm, Pollinator, BigA, greendale, adarsh1, Donkey McDonkerton
45-37 DaRealHibachi, nate33, Gilbert0Arenas, LyricalRico, NoVaO, hands11, dobrojim, Dat2U, dandridge 10
44-38 closg00, Severn Hoos, long suffrin’ boulez fan, go'stags, doclinkin, verbal8, Benjammin
43-39 floydfan29, daSwami, mohammed10, miller31time, BanndNDC
42-40 P’Oed, tkunit, MJG, pancakes3, terpman
41-41 Wiz99
40-42 gowiz999

38-44 Chocolate City Jordanaire
37-45 no D in Hibachi, Rafael122

35-47 lupin

33-49 Cramer
______________________________________________________________________________________________

The Wiz would need to go undefeated the rest of the season to win 49 games. For Cramer to accurately predict the win total the Wiz will need to play .500 ball. Looks like for the second season in a row the entire board over projected the Wizards win total.

[montestewart]

FINAL predictions ... locked in:
______________________________________________________________________________________________
53-29 FreeBalling, gesa2


50-32 AgentOvechkin08, Ruzious, ZonkertheBrainless, fishercob, Shanghai Kid
49-33 wemolwermol777, montestewart, Joe_Wiz
48-34 zaRdsAndZeRos, jholmbe1, DallasShalDune, jimij, Hoopalotta, JWizmentality,
Krizko Zero
47-35 keynote, mls737, bulletproof_32, gibertgoes05, Pradamaster, JAR69
46-36 Zerocious, WizStorm, Pollinator, BigA, greendale, adarsh1, Donkey McDonkerton
45-37 DaRealHibachi, nate33, Gilbert0Arenas, LyricalRico, NoVaO, hands11, dobrojim, Dat2U, dandridge 10
44-38 closg00, Severn Hoos, long suffrin’ boulez fan, go'stags, doclinkin, verbal8, Benjammin
43-39 floydfan29, daSwami, mohammed10, miller31time, BanndNDC
42-40 P’Oed, tkunit, MJG, pancakes3, terpman
41-41 Wiz99
40-42 gowiz999

38-44 Chocolate City Jordanaire
37-45 no D in Hibachi, Rafael122

35-47 lupin

33-49 Cramer
______________________________________________________________________________________________

The Wiz would need to go undefeated the rest of the season to win 49 games. For Cramer to accurately predict the win total the Wiz will need to play .500 ball. Looks like for the second season in a row the entire board over projected the Wizards win total.

I'm sticking by my prediction.