Over/Under on Wallace 3 pointers?

[sam_I_am]

Would you be happier if Wallace shot 48% from the low post instead of 35% from the 3 pt line?

Why does it have to be instead? I think he can shoot about 50% from up close - as any good 7 footer should, AND shoot 35% from beyond the arc -- he just needs to change the ratio. It's a pipe dream though. He fell in love with the 3 in 99 when he shot 40% and never stopped. Like I said, when they fall it's all good. But when they don't it can really hurt. He needs to get to the line more, get the other team above the foul limit, fight for the occasional offensive rebound. There's much more to it than pure percentages.

My point is simple: 35% from 3 point land means you score 105 pts on 100 shots.
48% from the post means you score 96 pts on 100 shots.

So if Wallace plays in the post more he becomes a less efficient shooter, he keeps a shot blocker close to the rim and clogs up passing lanes. The difference between him and Antoine is that Wallace really can score in the post if he wanted to. Which means as soon as an opposing coach tries to stop his 3 point shots by putting a smaller player on him he WILL eat him alive in the post. Walker couldn't do that.

What is the point of making Wallace mix up against Noah, Varejao, Shaq, Big Al, Dalembert etc.? If you notice against a much smaller big in Philly - Elton Brand - he did go down to the post and can be effective. But he is a much greater weapon and more efficient scorer out side the 3 pt line.

Wallace being a 42% shooter from 3 pt. land would have to shoot 53% from the post or draw a lot of fouls to equal the production he gets from an easy attempt that spaces the floor and weakens the other teams defense significantly. At his age, I don't want him to go near the post until the end of the season so he is healthy and ready for post season.

[Cyclical]

Sam, I'm with you on the concept of staying at the arc to not clog the lanes but not as much he does. Also, the age-old 33.3% = 50% argument for 3-pointers just doesn't hold up since it's not JUST about point for point -- it's about the approach's overall affect on the game.

Bill Simmons, who I often don't care for, actually describes my point in this quote. Tommy Heinsohn and other old-schoolers would agree as well:

Let's say that one player attempts 12 3-pointers and makes four (for 12 points). His teammate attempts 12 2-pointers and makes six, but during that time -- because he's not standing 25 feet away jacking up 3s like an idiot -- he also draws three fouls on his defender, creates two assists for teammates, makes three of four free throws, turns the ball over once, and misses one layup that gets tapped in by a teammate (we'll call it 19 points). You're telling me those two scenarios are equal?

Listen, I'm not saying I don't like Sheed taking 3's - simply taking less and using his considerable post, back-to-the-basket and mid-range skills more. Something he used to do his first few years in the league. I've had the exact same criticism of him since about 2005 and nothing's changed. Not hating, just observing.

[sully00]

Sam, I'm with you on the concept of staying at the arc to not clog the lanes but not as much he does. Also, the age-old 33.3% = 50% argument for 3-pointers just doesn't hold up since it's not JUST about point for point -- it's about the approach's overall affect on the game.

Bill Simmons, who I often don't care for, actually describes my point in this quote. Tommy Heinsohn and other old-schoolers would agree as well:

Let's say that one player attempts 12 3-pointers and makes four (for 12 points). His teammate attempts 12 2-pointers and makes six, but during that time -- because he's not standing 25 feet away jacking up 3s like an idiot -- he also draws three fouls on his defender, creates two assists for teammates, makes three of four free throws, turns the ball over once, and misses one layup that gets tapped in by a teammate (we'll call it 19 points). You're telling me those two scenarios are equal?

Listen, I'm not saying I don't like Sheed taking 3's - simply taking less and using his considerable post, back-to-the-basket and mid-range skills more. Something he used to do his first few years in the league. I've had the exact same criticism of him since about 2005 and nothing's changed. Not hating, just observing.

First off Tommy was a total chucker that would make Toine and Wallace look shy and marksmen by comparison. He avg like 40% from the field and shot the ball from 15 ft in.

How does Rasheed Wallace get a an assist by taking a shot on the blocks? He doesn't. Wallace plays in the post he just frequently looks to draw the defense and pass from that position. He is averaging over an assist a game and equal to his career avg 2 per 36. The one turnover stuff is nonsense look at the turnover numbers on guys like Perk and Leon compared to Wallace and Garnett. What none of the basketball experts who champion playing down on the blocks ever talk about is the fact that 10% of those post attempts get blocked. You want to know what the FG% is on that? To live on the blocks you have to shoot about 60% to justify the blocked shots. That is why you see Duncan, Garnett, Wallace, Booozer, even Big Al extend their offensive games. Not only does Wallace's shot not get blocked but he draws the other teams shot blocker away from the hoop allowing other players to go to the basket without that threat hanging over them.

Basically the big man looking to score on the blocks in today's NBA is the equivalent of the jumbo short yardage line up in the NFL. While picking up fouls is an asset when you can catch a defense off guard, that is accomplished just as easily by posting a SG/SF. With the rules as they are now a post defender just has to hold his position and the guards attack the dribble and the off big goes to block the shot. You are playing into the teeth of the defense and essentially going 1 on 5.

It is only 6 games but Wallace has a TS% and eFG% of about 60% unless you are Dwight Howard your probably not going to do much better than that. Now to contrast Perk has an outstanding 62% and 61% but there is almost no difference in assist percentage Wallace 9% and Perk 7% but Perk has a turnover % of 25 and Wallace 9%.

This is a style over substance argument. Usually when you find yourself agreeing with something Simmons has said you are in a room by yourself and you need to just say it out loud first.

[sam_I_am]

Well put Sully.

You also have to work the ball into a low post scorer. This generally wastes shot clock and leads to 3 other guys standing around. When Sheed is outside the 3 point line he can catch and shoot or pass without a deliberate effort to "work the ball down low".

Sheed - like most NBA players who are not all stars - is pretty unlikely to draw a lot of fouls in the post. Besides, I'd much rather have Garnett or Perkins or Sheldon work in the post area because they lack the range that Wallace has. 2 guys trying work the post just doesn't work anymore.

Especially with Rondo as your PG. If there are 2 big men in the paint - how is Rondo going to score? He needs room to buzz around. I'm content to leave Wallace where he is and continue to win by 19 ppg.

[sully00]

Exactly Sam

The thing that Wallace is doing by just catching and firing is that you cannot leave him and just hope to run out at him or switch. It isn't even clicking yet wait till Big Baby is on the floor instead of Shelden Williams (not that Williams hasn't been great) but just like Particle mentioned that is the whole point you have to man up Wallace combinded with Daniels on the blocks is shredding the team defense concept.

[Cyclical]

Well put only if I was advocating "living on the blocks" - otherwise, not well put.

Sam, Sully, I have no argument with the concept of what you're saying as an entire style of play - I look at it quite the same way - but we're not taking about moving Sheed entirely to post here, just diversifying his game a bit more. Actually going back to what he was doing earlier in his career. He camps out on the 3 too much. He can go into the post a little more often. He can play with his back to the basket a little more often.

That's it. No need to paint this in black and white -- this is not Wilt vs. Ray Allen. He's an extremely versatile big guy who can help the team by using more of his talent. I've watched A LOT of Pistons games over the last few years and the same argument holds.

Talk about painting with a broad brush... Simmons is ALWAYS wrong? I'm in a room by myself? Of course not. Style over substance? It's be easy to point the substance of wrong plays Sheed makes on offense. Trust me, I'm hardly the only one holding this opinion. This is not hate towards the guy - to have no criticism of his choices on offense is to miss some things for sure.

[TheSheriff]

Would you be happier if Wallace shot 48% from the low post instead of 35% from the 3 pt line?

Why does it have to be instead? I think he can shoot about 50% from up close - as any good 7 footer should, AND shoot 35% from beyond the arc -- he just needs to change the ratio. It's a pipe dream though. He fell in love with the 3 in 99 when he shot 40% and never stopped. Like I said, when they fall it's all good. But when they don't it can really hurt. He needs to get to the line more, get the other team above the foul limit, fight for the occasional offensive rebound. There's much more to it than pure percentages.

My point is simple: 35% from 3 point land means you score 105 pts on 100 shots.
48% from the post means you score 96 pts on 100 shots.

So if Wallace plays in the post more he becomes a less efficient shooter, he keeps a shot blocker close to the rim and clogs up passing lanes. The difference between him and Antoine is that Wallace really can score in the post if he wanted to. Which means as soon as an opposing coach tries to stop his 3 point shots by putting a smaller player on him he WILL eat him alive in the post. Walker couldn't do that.

What is the point of making Wallace mix up against Noah, Varejao, Shaq, Big Al, Dalembert etc.? If you notice against a much smaller big in Philly - Elton Brand - he did go down to the post and can be effective. But he is a much greater weapon and more efficient scorer out side the 3 pt line.

Wallace being a 42% shooter from 3 pt. land would have to shoot 53% from the post or draw a lot of fouls to equal the production he gets from an easy attempt that spaces the floor and weakens the other teams defense significantly. At his age, I don't want him to go near the post until the end of the season so he is healthy and ready for post season.

Except that Rasheed doesn't shoot 48% from the post he shoots about 51% on all 2pt attempts and has better fg% around the basket. Plus on the low post he draws fouls and is in a position to get offensive rebounds.