can wallace lead the league in rebounds?

Post #1 » by **fatlever** » Tue Nov 10, 2009 5:42 pm

he apparently thinks so...
http://basketball.realgm.com/src_wireta ... rds_at_67/

"Why not?" he said Monday. "God willing, if I stay healthy, I think I can."
"Up until I got into 10th or 11th grade, I was a big. I know how bigs think," Wallace said. "I'm used to playing with my back to the basket and banging."

i think he can easily average 10, but it will take 13+ to beat howard. that might be asking a lot. teams will certainly start to plan to keep wallace off the boards. plus all that added time under the glass could lead to a few more elbows in the face.

but on the positive side, this might just be the type of attention crash needs to get selected to the all-star game. if he can get his fg% back to 45%, scoring back to 18 and if the bobcats can hang around .500 or even a little less, i think wallace will make it, especially if he is averaging a double-double in january.

Post #2 » by **Paydro70** » Tue Nov 10, 2009 6:12 pm

No, it is not possible. This is an anomaly, and he will eventually slip down to around 8 or 8.5. It would be completely unprecedented for a player to leap in the way he has so far for an entire season.

chrbal · Post #3 » by **chrbal** » Tue Nov 10, 2009 7:16 pm

If he can stay healthy, he really has a good chance. The Bobcats aren't the greatest shooting team and outside of Chandler he has no other very good rebounder on his team. His health will be his greatest ally or enemy.

Post #4 » by **Nolan** » Tue Nov 10, 2009 7:44 pm

If he can stay healthy he's got a shot, but I don't think he'll do it.

Post #5 » by **fatlever** » Tue Nov 10, 2009 7:46 pm

i wouldnt say its unprecedented. rare. rodman and jayson williams were two guys that had been in the league a while before they exploded on the glass.

rodmans rebounds per 36 started at 10, went to 12 for a few years, jumped to 16 then jumped again to 19.

willimas rebounds per 36 started around 8, jumped to 10 then jumped to 15 for a few years.

even fat levers per 36 rebounds started around 5 for his first 4 years then jumped to 8-9 for a few years.

big leaps in rebounds this far into a career are very rare, but it has happened.

Post #6 » by **fatlever** » Tue Nov 10, 2009 7:51 pm

of course statistically speaking, sure, its most likely he will regress back towards his career averages and end up closer to 7 than his current rate of 13.5.

thank being said, i could definitely see him ending up around 10. the only other time wallace played w/out okafor was back in 2005/06 when okafor was hurt. wallace averaged close to 10rpg for a 2 month stretch before he got injured.

Mezotarkus · Post #7 » by **Mezotarkus** » Tue Nov 10, 2009 11:34 pm

Paydro70 wrote:No, it is not possible. This is an anomaly, and he will eventually slip down to around 8 or 8.5. It would be completely unprecedented for a player to leap in the way he has so far for an entire season.

Rodman went from averaging 9-13 rebounds per game to 18 rebounds per game. He went from 12 rpg per 36 min to 16-18 rpg per 36 min.

Atypical? Yes. Unprecedented? No.

Mezotarkus · Post #8 » by **Mezotarkus** » Wed Nov 11, 2009 12:41 am

Woops didnt see Fats response up above.

KeithMoonsLiver · Post #9 » by **KeithMoonsLiver** » Wed Nov 11, 2009 12:59 am

god knows we will miss enough shots that he will have plenty of chances at 'em

BobCatsFoLife · Post #10 » by **BobCatsFoLife** » Wed Nov 11, 2009 1:11 am

I doubt if he will lead the league, but I do believe he will have his best rebounding season of his career. I really hope Tyson gets aggressive and starts to control the boards more, but that is wishful thinking.

Post #11 » by **Walt Cronkite** » Wed Nov 11, 2009 1:41 am

No. He can finish amongst a bunch of giants though if he stays healthy. Double double isn't out of the question since Chandler can't seem to stay on the floor, but that means Gerald has to log lots of minutes=more likely to be injured.

Post #12 » by **fatlever** » Wed Nov 11, 2009 2:32 am

BobCatsFoLife wrote:I doubt if he will lead the league, but I do believe he will have his best rebounding season of his career. I really hope Tyson gets aggressive and starts to control the boards more, but that is wishful thinking.

not worried about tyson's rebounding at all. only worried about his inability to stay out of foul trouble. when chandler is in the game he is grabbing boards and when he is not grabbing boards he is boxing out. diaw and chandler do a great job of boxing out. our team rebounding is solid and not a concern in the least. we've had one bad rebounding stretch all season, which was about a 10 minute stretch vs chicago, when vlad the space cadet stood around watching the action leaving us shorthanded on the glass. vlad doesnt go after the boards and he doesnt box out. he only rebounds when the ball fall directly in his hands.

Post #13 » by **Paydro70** » Wed Nov 11, 2009 3:47 am

Rodman isn't a good example, he slowly ramped his up, rather than leaping quickly one season... even his largest gap is about half of what Wallace's has done.

Williams did make this kind of leap, but he's also a center, not a small forward, and was not a starter playing real minutes when he did it. I sincerely doubt Wallace even ends up with a double double, let alone being amongst the league leaders.

Shawn Marion represents a more realistic comparison, since he is at least a 6'7" tweener forward. Marion has always been a better rebounder than Wallace though, and even he could only get to 12rpg when playing 40mpg at PF for the Suns, rather than (most likely) 37 or so at SF for one of the slowest teams in the league.

Mezotarkus · Post #14 » by **Mezotarkus** » Wed Nov 11, 2009 11:35 am

Paydro70 wrote:Rodman isn't a good example, he slowly ramped his up, rather than leaping quickly one season... even his largest gap is about half of what Wallace's has done.

Williams did make this kind of leap, but he's also a center, not a small forward, and was not a starter playing real minutes when he did it. I sincerely doubt Wallace even ends up with a double double, let alone being amongst the league leaders.

Shawn Marion represents a more realistic comparison, since he is at least a 6'7" tweener forward. Marion has always been a better rebounder than Wallace though, and even he could only get to 12rpg when playing 40mpg at PF for the Suns, rather than (most likely) 37 or so at SF for one of the slowest teams in the league.

I don't understand your Rodman comment. Wallace has gone from roughly 7-8 rebounds per 36 minutes (rp36) to 11.5. That's an improvement of around 4 rp36. Rodman went from 12 to 17 (peaking one year at 19). That's an improvement of around 5 rp36. Seems like a fairly good example.

Look at Joakim Noah. He's gone from 9.8 rp36 to 13.9 rp36.

Once again - significant increases in rp36 are atypical but not unprecedented.

Post #15 » by **Paydro70** » Wed Nov 11, 2009 4:08 pm

How do you not understand? "he slowly ramped his up, rather than leaping quickly one season... even his largest gap is about half of what Wallace's has done."

Noah increased 1.5, then 1.6. Not 4.5. He's also 24.

In both cases, the players follow a steady curve of improvement as they age. Neither experienced the kind of enormous leap that Wallace has so far at 27.

We are 7 games in, this is a classic example of small sample size, like Randolph leading the league in O-boards or Chris Paul shooting .630.

Post #16 » by **Walt Cronkite** » Wed Nov 11, 2009 8:45 pm

From today's PER diem:

John Hollinger wrote:It's one thing for a 6-foot-7 player to lead the league in rebounding. It's quite another when that player doesn't even play in the frontcourt. Wallace, the Charlotte Bobcats' small forward, leads the league with 13.1 boards per game.

He's benefited a bit from the fact that Charlotte games have a LOT of missed shots -- the clawless 'Cats are dead last in offensive efficiency and fourth in defensive efficiency -- but by any standard this is pretty amazing. Here's the twist -- he's having a really poor year otherwise, shooting just 32.1 percent from the floor with four assists the entire season. Yes, four. The scoring-starved Bobcats continue to post him up out of desperation, with little results.

Mezotarkus · Post #17 » by **Mezotarkus** » Thu Nov 12, 2009 4:33 am

Paydro70 wrote:How do you not understand? "he slowly ramped his up, rather than leaping quickly one season... even his largest gap is about half of what Wallace's has done."

Do you think if you ignore Rodman (which both Fat and I have pointed out) he just won't exist? His performance is a clear refutation of your "unprecedented" comment. Even the amout of increase Rodman experienced is comparable to Wallace. If Wallace can sustain his rebounding improvement over the whole season it would be atypical but not unprecedented.

Post #18 » by **Paydro70** » Thu Nov 12, 2009 4:42 am

Edit: I have been looking at Wallace's per game, not per 36 numbers. He was only slightly higher than Rodman's biggest season-to-season improvement.

Although really this conversation is going to be totally moot in 2 weeks when Wallace is back down to 9rpg.

Mezotarkus · Post #19 » by **Mezotarkus** » Thu Nov 12, 2009 7:06 am

Paydro70 wrote:Edit: I have been looking at Wallace's per game, not per 36 numbers. He was only slightly higher than Rodman's biggest season-to-season improvement.

Although really this conversation is going to be totally moot in 2 weeks when Wallace is back down to 9rpg.

I agree its unlikely that Wallace will maintain his current rebounding rate. I am just saying if he does he wouldn't be the first player to experience such a dramatic increase in his rebounding rate.

BobsBuddy · Post #20 » by **BobsBuddy** » Fri Nov 13, 2009 3:44 pm

Hum Maybe GW can do it if CMC is allowed to sit next to him on Bobcats bench with replaceable knee and Hip joints and his minutes are cut to 32. OF course our scoring will continue to drop maybe into the 60s and record maybe to 20-62. We started last year 3-7 and we are on our way again. :roll: