Oklahoma City Thunder @ Sacramento Kings 11/10/09

[slick_watts]

Russell Westbrook / Thabo Sefolosha / Kevin Durant / Jeff Green / Nenad Krstic

@




Beno Udrih / Tyreke Evans / Andres Nocioni / Jason Thompson / Spencer Hawes

Matchup

Sacramento is looking to redeem themselves after getting ransacked by the Thunder in the first game of the year. Kevin Martin broke his wrist and will be out, but the Kings have been winning some games without him. K-Mart was the only King that was effective against our stifling opening day defense, so this bodes well for us.

Look for Jeff Green to become more involved in the offense, especially in the low post, unless Kings coach Paul Westphal makes some adjustments. Green saw Andres Nocioni defending him quite a bit in the opener and he seemed to take advantage of him every time down the court. Against bigger PF's such as Brandon Bass and Luis Scola, Green had difficulty with his back to the basket. The Kings have a roster more to his liking.

Tyreke Evans has had a couple nice games. Thabo Sefolosha has been lights out defensively to start the year so that will be a matchup to watch. OKC will have to be aware of Sacramento's perimeter shooting even with Martin out; Hawes, Casspi, Udrih, and Nocioni are all capable from a distance.

Some Numbers

OKC continues to play ball at a slow pace; they are the fourth slowest team in the league. This is quite a contrast to last season where they were 8th fastest. This difference in philosophy definitely helps a team that struggles to get good shots as they are bottom half in the league in Offensive Rating. Defensively, OKC is ranked 4th best in the league; how much of this has to do with short handed teams is debatable, but it is an improvement regardless.

We all know RW has to cut the turnovers down, but he is shooting very well from the field, 48.8% to be exact.

Sacramento is the antithesis of OKC in terms of ratings, they are ranked 7th in offensive rating and 27th in defensive rating. Opponents are shooting over 50% from the field against them; if OKC shoots anywhere near that percentage this should be an easy win.

A Question

Everything else being equal, would you prefer a Russell Westbrook that shot 50% from the field but turned the ball over 5 times a game or a Russell Westbrook who shot 41% from the field but only turned the ball over 2.5 times a game?

[Clangus]

That is a great Question.

My personal opinion is that I would prefer less turnovers. In reality there is little difference providing we assume he takes the same number of fg attempts when shooting poorly as he does e when shooting well.

A turnover is not just lost possesion it'sa lost shot attempt, it also an extra attempt for the opponent. That's a swing of up to 10 shot attempts for 5 turnovers.

Having a lower turnover rate (of 2.5) thats 5 shot attempt swing away from us.

lets say he has 14 shots and hits 50%. That's 7 made shots
Lets say he shoot 14 shots and hits 40% thats 5 (rounded) made shots. A difference of 2 made baskets.
Now figure that an extra 2.5 turnovers is an extra 5 attempts (2.5 lost and 2.5 gained for opposition). 2 thirds of the NBA shoot better than 45% so a 5 shot swing results in 2 and a bit made shots.

So you can see statistically it works out very evenly. Of course stats dont tell the whole tale.

Basically if he is shooting poorly he might look to pass more and our offense potentially could become more fluid and effective. Conversely if he is in full attck mode and because he is shooting well he may look to score more and the offense may become stagnant.

All in all I think its a push. Personally I like Point Guards that shoot little and turn it over less.

[wiff]

I have been slammed with work and my wife had a friend staying with us since Friday. Anyway I just watched the Orlando game and I hope to see an effort like that against the Kings tonight.

Nice to see the Thunder finally take advantage of a team who is missing a key player or two.

As bad as Brian Davis is, and he is absolutely horrible, he did say something last night that he regurgitated from Brooks I believe. He said that the Thunder have a legitimate shot to win on any night in the league this season and you couldn't say that for the last two seasons.

They have played some really good defensive ball this year and we all know they can score the ball.

They should put a beat down on the Kings tonight, they are without K-Mart (which hurts my fantasty team big time) and he seems to be the only guy who kills the Thunder.

[Clangus]

I have been slammed with work and my wife had a friend staying with us since Friday. Anyway I just watched the Orlando game and I hope to see an effort like that against the Kings tonight.

Nice to see the Thunder finally take advantage of a team who is missing a key player or two.

As bad as Brian Davis is, and he is absolutely horrible, he did say something last night that he regurgitated from Brooks I believe. He said that the Thunder have a legitimate shot to win on any night in the league this season and you couldn't say that for the last two seasons.

They have played some really good defensive ball this year and we all know they can score the ball.

They should put a beat down on the Kings tonight, they are without K-Mart (which hurts my fantasty team big time) and he seems to be the only guy who kills the Thunder.

HAHAH me too. I really need his 3's - had to dump him in favor of Morrow. Couldn't afford to keep him and TMac injured . :S

[slick_watts]

Clangus, I agree with you I'd rather see RW cut down on the turnovers and work on getting people involved in the offense. I like that he's hitting his shots early on, but some of that seems to come at the cost of continuity. I just think it's interesting that he's finishing and hitting some shots so far but his turnovers have gone up.

If OKC wins tonight it'll be their 2nd road win in their first seven games. They didn't win their 2nd road game last season until January 7th, almost half way through the year.

[Clangus]

If we don't win this one i will be extremely disappointed. I'm not taking the Kings lightly, but this is one we should win, we have an advantage at almost every position. Except possibly the bench, which I think is a push.

[wizkid27]

I'm pumped. The game is definitely a late start around here, but hopefully this will be a solid win to watch!

Green needs to get back into being active on offense and Durant needs to keep hitting shots like he did last game. If those two things happen, I think we'll win regardless of the other stuff going on.

[Clangus]

Wow some gamedays go so slowly. I cannot WAIT for the game!

[slick_watts]

Beno Udrih is killin' it right now.

Thabo with two very ugly drives to the basket, he is not the person that should be attempting to break down the defense.

[slick_watts]

Another Sefolosha turnover, what a joke.

Durant with the charge, four turnovers in four minutes!

[slick_watts]

Early on it looks like it might be another one of those games, KD is struggling.

[slick_watts]

Krstic has to take that one up strong, got stuffed by Hawes.

[slick_watts]

Interesting rotation here, Brooks takes Durant out and puts Harden in at the 5:30 mark.

RW making some nice plays, Udrih can't keep up with him.

[dre_1614]

I hate Durant when he is chucking and not looking to pass.

[slick_watts]

Jeff Green looking great against Andres Nocioni again, with the hoop and the foul. Don't know why Paul Westphal is keeping Nocioni on him.

Only one assist on 7 made shots but we're getting a lot of shots inside, as we should against the Kings.

[slick_watts]

Yeah Durant's just trying too hard on offense.

[dre_1614]

Harden making some nice hustle plays so far.

[slick_watts]

What a great lineup Ollie / Harden / Sefolosha / Collison / Thomas

Terrible.

[slick_watts]

Pretty even first quarter. I thought RW had a nice rhythm going offensively, hopefully we'll see more of that. The bench didn't give away too many points, and we have the lead even with KD playing half a mediocre quarter.

Too many easy baskets to start the game for the Kings but the defense tightened up a bit later on.

[slick_watts]

Etan Thomas and Nick Collison posting up on back to back possessions with predictable results.