OT | Colts/Pats

[MikeIsGood]

I cannot believe the Pats went for it on 4th down on their own 30. Wow. Just stunned.

[MikeIsGood]

This is unbelievable.

And I mean that as literally as possible. I literally cannot believe what has just happened. The Pats gift-wrapped the Colts a touchdown and a 1-point lead with 20 seconds left.

[LUKE23]

One of the best games I've seen in a while. BB's arrogant POS ass goes for it on 4th down from their 28, doesn't get it, Colts ram it up their ass to beat them. Hilarious.

[MikeIsGood]

Can't wait to read what Bill Simmons has to say about this

[Kerb Hohl]

I don't like the Patriots either, and I never would have called that, but I can kinda see doing it. The thing is, there was minimal left for even Peyton Manning to score. But he must have thought the chances of stopping Manning from going down and scoring was 40% and the chances of getting the first down was 50% or something.

[ReasonablySober]

I turned the game off with the Pats moving the ball, up 10 with 8 minutes left.

Oops.

[MikeIsGood]

There was so little time left, make him go as far as possible. He got to start on the 28 yard line. Scoring was simple and they were able to milk the clock to boot.

[Simulack]

I was amazed. Before the Pats went for it, I was saying to a friend that, although no NFL coach would ever go for it, there have to be times when it would obviouslyO be the smart decision to go for it. Basically it is weighing the odds of converting on a 4th and 2 OR stopping Indy from 30 yards a way (or whatever it was) versus the odds of stopping them after the punt distance is added on. Strategically, there are certainly times when a team ought to go for it especially if they are a team with a stronger offense than defense.

I don't think it was arrogance on Belichick's part. I remember reading a study saying statistical analysis supported NFL teams going for it way more often than they do. Belichick was mentioned as one of the only coaches who took it seriously.

The fact that it didn't work out doesn't mean it wasn't a good call. Also, it looked like a first if the guy just didn't bobble the catch.

Where the Pats possibly screwed up was by not letting the Colts score earlier. I know it is hard to think like that in the middle of a game but there was no point in tackling Addai after that 13 yard run. Just let him in and you have over a minute to get a FG.

[MikeIsGood]

No, the success of the call had no baring on it being a bad call. It was a bad call, IMO at least, because Peyton Manning could be getting (and did get) the ball back down 6 points starting on the Pats' 28 instead of maybe his own 28.

EDIT: That read wrong - fixed it.

[MickeyDavis]

Great game

[Simulack]

No, the success of the call had no baring on it being a bad call. It was a bad call, IMO at least, because Peyton Manning got the ball back down 6 points starting on the Pats' 28 instead of maybe his own 28.

It still might have been the decision that gave them the best chance of winning. The combined odds of them converting on 4th or stopping Indy from the Patriots 30 might have been assessed by Belichick to be higher than the odds of them stopping Indy from the Colts 30. My point is just that there HAVE to be situations where that is indeed the case whether this was one or not. No one should categorically say going for it there is the wrong call. For example.. if you have the best offense/worst defense and the team you are playing has the same, I'd say you should almost always go for it. The annoucers acted like it was UNTHINKABLE to go for it when statistically it isn't at all.

Plus, given a 40 yard difference, in the first scenario there is a higher chance the Pats are left with time to get a FG themselves if Indy scores a TD. If Addai gets in on that 13 yard run instead of pointlessly being tackled at the 2, the Pats would have had plenty of time for a FG.

[Kerb Hohl]

I was 50/50 on that call but I'm starting to think you're right, Simulack.

[MikeIsGood]

I understand your argument about odds, but it doesn't change that I disagree with it and the call. It can't fairly be assessed how their defense would have done against Manning with more favorable field position because it didn't happen. The great offense/terrible defense thing is fine, but I'm not assessing the call in other situations, just the one that happened. The Pats have one of the league's best defenses as a whole, and their pass defense specifically is top-notch. Have more trust in them. Punt the ball, make Manning go further. Play defense. That defense has got to be pissed right now.

I did want to say, though, that I'm aware of this study you referred to about teams going for it more on 4th down. I believe we talked about it here a couple years ago.

[drew881]

I think the Colts creeping up to the Patriots regular season win streak records might have influenced this call.

[ReasonablySober]

I have to say, I agree with Simulack. I've also read the study he's referencing and even if I hadn't, statistics be damned, I think I'd feel better about Brady, Welker, Moss and Watson converting a 4th and 1.5 than their defense stopping Peyton Manning at the end of a game. I don't think the yardage even matters, I think Manning does it.

[Kerb Hohl]

I could definitely see a similar study done on this play. Actually, a probability person probably could have an article out tomorrow about the decision.

I'd honestly be willing to bet my life savings on Bill making the right call. Maybe the odds of a first down compared to stopping them after a punt are similar...but with those other outs you've given yourself as we've discussed, that really pushes it in the favor of going for it.

[MikeIsGood]

My shock is really that an NFL coach did that, more so than what was done. He's got balls - I'll give him that, even if I do disagree with the call.

It was an awesome game.

[Kerb Hohl]

My shock is really that an NFL coach did that, more so than what was done. He's got balls - I'll give him that, even if I do disagree with the call.

It was an awesome game.

It was a great game and to be honest, while I don't hate Belichick, just haven't liked him much, that play probably made me gain some respect for the guy. Today watching Del Rio to have MJD go down and Belichick playing the odds correctly there gave me faith that some coaches know what is going on out there.

It still boggles my mind how many coaches don't play the odds. It's like anything in Vegas, over a long time, you'll have your best success playing your odds.

So many coaches in the NFL don't do the "let him score" mentality like the Jets did and Del Rio told MJD to take a knee, great call. You'll get idiotic coaches that say "well you could still fumble the FG snap" or miss the field goal or coaches that say "I will never tell my team to let an opposing player score" or anything like that. It's just plain stupid. I realize things like that can get them fired in which case maybe it swings things closer to their favor, but take that Jets/Jags game today for example.

To set the scene, Jags were down 1 with a little over a minute to go, and they were deep in Jets territory.

-With about a minute left, MJD runs up the middle and breaks into the secondary. The Jets are CLEARLY trying to let the guy score.
-MJD takes the knee at the 1 on purpose.
-Jags run the clock to 2 seconds to go
-Game winning chip shot field goal is good.

What is the success rate for an NFL extra point, 99%? So, add the late game jitters and make it 98%. Compare that to the 10-15% chance that the opponent takes the ball back down the field with 1 timeout and a minute and scores a touchdown. 98% > 85-90%.

Anyways, I'm rambling but I realized I gained some respect for BB. If a similar situation comes up 20 times in Bill's career and he goes for it, he probably wins 13, 14, 15 times. If he punts, I think he wins 10 times out of 20.

[El Duderino]

I agree that BB is getting to much flack. I would have punted, but it wasn't a ridiculous decision like it was made out to be.

[drew881]

What will be more interesting is the next time the situation comes up, because I think he will do it again.