OT | Colts/Pats

[James1980]

It was 4th and 2 right? Why is Belichick saying he thought we could get a yard?

[Kerb Hohl]

I'm watching Sportscenter with Mike & Mike hosting and it was 80.5 to 79% in the probability for a win either to go for it or punt based on some company based on NFL League average on 4th and 2 conversions and ability + ability to stop 70 vs. 29.

He made the right call.

[MikeIsGood]

I saw it also and I still disagree. It goes beyond statistics that aren't even separated by 2 percentage points. The fallout from what it ended up doing to the defense has been enormous. He has former star players basically calling him stupid on national television because of the impact it can have on the defense, and reports from the locker room were not even remotely positive. It was compared to the stunning loss they suffered in the Superbowl two seasons ago. Patriots had the third best passing defense coming into that game, and had intercepted Manning twice.

[Kerb Hohl]

I saw it also and I still disagree. It goes beyond statistics that aren't even separated by 2 percentage points. The fallout from what it ended up doing to the defense has been enormous. He has former star players basically calling him stupid on national television because of the impact it can have on the defense, and reports from the locker room were not even remotely positive. It was compared to the stunning loss they suffered in the Superbowl two seasons ago. Patriots had the third best passing defense coming into that game, and had intercepted Manning twice.

One of the INTs I saw Manning throw was a busted option route. He went to the corner and the WR went to the post. I don't see that happening again.

Belichick = 12/16 on 4th down vs. Indy.

They are also 80% on 4th and 2 since 2003 and the NFL average was 59%.

[MikeIsGood]

I don't remember the INTs off of the top of my head, but I saw all of those stats - I'm watching SC right now. And my stance is not being swayed. I trust Tedy Bruschi and Rodney Harrison's stance in this regard. This isn't about a 1.5% difference. I also know damn well that BB did not know standing on the sideline that there was a 1.5% better chance of winning the game by going for it on 4th down. He trusted his offense going for a 4th & 2 on their own 28 yard line over punting the ball and letting his 3rd ranked pass defense work with 80 yards.

This is not clear cut in either direction. But I do disagree with the call, which has nothing to do with the outcome.

[Kerb Hohl]

That 80.5 to 79% were also league averages though.

The league 4th and 2 conversion rate was 59.5% but they said the Pats since 2003 got it at something like 80% of the time.

Then also factor in the Colts QB is Peyton Manning and the 79% chance of stopping a QB from going 70 yards goes to probably 55-60%

I don't get why the defense is so pissed off. They need to grow a pair and also realize he might have been trying to add confidence that they could stop Manning from short. Who knows.

[ReasonablySober]

Like I said, stats be damned, I have Brady, Moss, Welker and Watson and all I need is two yards. I can go for it and end the game or I can put the ball into the hands of the best that's ever played and hope he doesn't take me apart. It was ballsy and unexpected but I give the hoodie credit. I think the flak he's getting is crap.

[bucks59]

I'm watching Sportscenter with Mike & Mike hosting and it was 80.5 to 79% in the probability for a win either to go for it or punt based on some company based on NFL League average on 4th and 2 conversions and ability + ability to stop 70 vs. 29.

He made the right call.

http://espn.go.com/boston/columns/patri ... st/4660828