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Tommy said the Celtics are "elderly", is it a problem?

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Re: Tommy said the Celtics are "elderly", is it a problem? 

Post#41 » by tombattor » Tue Nov 17, 2009 3:52 pm

Wolves2011 wrote:
tombattor wrote:When you win, you look good and when you lose, you look bad. It's simple as that. So they've looked bad 3 times and good 8. Can't win them all.


So when they win they look good?

1) like against the wolves, who they trailed the whole game and won by 2 against a team with 1 win, whose biggest star was playing 60%, whose next biggest star was missing, playing a new offensive system, with new players and new coach.

2) like against the Nets, who have 0 wins, who were missing half their team, literally, including Harris, Yi, CDR and Lee and who played us even the whole game.

This team could easily be 6 & 5.

But you can say the same about every team. You can nitpick any win/loss and say, if it wasn't for this, they would have won/lost.

We did beat Cleveland at home and Chicago by 20+ points. And the Bobcats by something like 40 points. So there were plenty of games where we looked good. But we have also looked a bit sluggish at times, like against the Pacers when they ran out of gas, but the bottom line is, we still have one of the best records in the league and will most likely get a high-seed in the playoffs. What more do you want from regular season? They don't give out championships 11 games into the season.

And maybe I'm being overly optimistic, but I don't really see this team winning less than 55 games this year and so far they are off to a start that put them in great position to do just that.
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Re: Tommy said the Celtics are "elderly", is it a problem? 

Post#42 » by MyInsatiableOne » Tue Nov 17, 2009 4:28 pm

Parasite wrote:This team's window is shut. Ray and Paul look 70 years old out there.


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It's still 17 to 11!!!!
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Re: Tommy said the Celtics are "elderly", is it a problem? 

Post#43 » by Wolves2011 » Thu Nov 19, 2009 2:11 am

mid-way through the G.S. game, another athletic team, though NOT A GOOD one giving us fits
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Re: Tommy said the Celtics are "elderly", is it a problem? 

Post#44 » by MyInsatiableOne » Thu Nov 19, 2009 12:14 pm

If you hate the C's and are so down on them all the time, why are you here?
It's still 17 to 11!!!!
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Re: Tommy said the Celtics are "elderly", is it a problem? 

Post#45 » by cloverleaf » Thu Nov 19, 2009 1:28 pm

It's why I don't think Ray gets resigned. I think they bundle up the money they have in his contract year and reload for a FA still in his prime. I think they start looking for their power forward of the future too--cause it's not 'Glenn'.
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Re: Tommy said the Celtics are "elderly", is it a problem? 

Post#46 » by Parasite » Thu Nov 19, 2009 1:41 pm

MyInsatiableOne wrote:If you hate the C's and are so down on them all the time, why are you here?



I mean, heaven forbid we may have an opinion about our favorite team that isn't all sunshine and lollipops. I'm sorry, but we look OLD. Unless we find the fountain of youth and find it quickly, I don't think we have much of a shot. Can things change? Sure. But it is very hard to fight Father Time.
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Re: Tommy said the Celtics are "elderly", is it a problem? 

Post#47 » by Great » Thu Nov 19, 2009 3:52 pm

Giddens or Walker will have to contribute something this year to bring a banner back.

Or they have to bring in a SG or SF to help.
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Re: Tommy said the Celtics are "elderly", is it a problem? 

Post#48 » by MyInsatiableOne » Thu Nov 19, 2009 5:06 pm

Parasite wrote:
MyInsatiableOne wrote:If you hate the C's and are so down on them all the time, why are you here?



I mean, heaven forbid we may have an opinion about our favorite team that isn't all sunshine and lollipops. I'm sorry, but we look OLD. Unless we find the fountain of youth and find it quickly, I don't think we have much of a shot. Can things change? Sure. But it is very hard to fight Father Time.


It's not being able to not ever be critical of the C's...I'm often critical of them. But some people are ALWAYS negative and it gets ****' old...

And it's only been 14 bloody games so far!
It's still 17 to 11!!!!
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Re: Tommy said the Celtics are "elderly", is it a problem? 

Post#49 » by Wolves2011 » Sat Nov 21, 2009 3:44 am

Celtics 2 for 19 on 3 pointers, no legs. This is early in the season.

We are not the best team in the NBA or in the East right now. We are 3 & 4 in our last 7 games and even our wins were most "bad" wins.

Gorman said during the game, the Celtics were 30 for 123 shooting 3's since the philly game, that was game 5.

In those 7 games, we either can't shoot, rebound or stop the fast break. All symptoms of age/lack of athleticism.
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Re: Tommy said the Celtics are "elderly", is it a problem? 

Post#50 » by Great » Sat Nov 21, 2009 4:25 am

Gotta get something from the SG and SF roster spots Giddens and Walker are holding down.
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Re: Tommy said the Celtics are "elderly", is it a problem? 

Post#51 » by Wolves2011 » Sat Nov 21, 2009 4:41 am

People will quote the Celtics "overall" stats and say everything is OK.

They say things like our avaerage margin of victory is 9 points a game. But they won't say that our margin of victory was 20 points a game after the first 5 games. In the next 8 games, our average margin of victory has been 1.5 points per game.
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Re: Tommy said the Celtics are "elderly", is it a problem? 

Post#52 » by Wolves2011 » Mon Nov 30, 2009 8:11 pm

Have been doing analysis of the Celtics

Their rebounding margin has gone from 3rd in 2008, to 2nd last year in 2009 to 18th this year.

Their 3 point FG% margin has gone from 1st in 2008, to 2nd last year in 2009 to 19th this year.

Key players are under performing.

Ray's 3 point shooting has fallen from a career average of 40% to 30%.

Wallace's 3 point shooting has fallen from a career average of 34% to 28%. His total shooting percentage is 38% vs a career 47%.

KG is recovering from injury, but even last season pre-injury his performance as measured by PER, wins produced, win share etc had fallen significantly. Pierce's has also fallen by these measures but not as much, but in adjusted plus minus Pierce has fallen by MORE THAN KG, even with KG's injury.

What all of these things have in common is age.

Older players can't hustle to chase down rebounds, run out to the 3 point line or shoot 3 pointers as easily with old legs.

Compared to 2 years ago and even last season pre-KG injury, the Celtics are no longer dominating opponents nearly as easily. The Celtics have a good record, but the wins appear to be a struggle.

I personally do like the Celtics efforts to go inside more. Driving and finding cutters and guys under the hoop. Thats creating easy offense for KG and Perk among others.

It will be interesting to see if the Celtics can "turn it up" when necessary.

The last Celtics championship ring for Russell was in 1969. The Celtics finished 4th in the East and appeared to have no chance against the Lakers, who had Elgin Baylor, Wilt Chamberlain and Jerry West. The Celtics' victory is considered one of the great upsets in NBA history.

Lets hope we can repeat that feat this year.
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Re: Tommy said the Celtics are "elderly", is it a problem? 

Post#53 » by Hemingway » Mon Nov 30, 2009 10:09 pm

Its almost as if everyone on the team got a year older from last year.
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Re: Tommy said the Celtics are "elderly", is it a problem? 

Post#54 » by Wolves2011 » Mon Nov 30, 2009 10:23 pm

Hemingway wrote:Its almost as if everyone on the team got a year older from last year.


The magic and Lakers are a year older also. But I don't see the same problems we are seeing with the Celtics.

We have reached a "tipping point".

HUGE changes in rebounding margin, 3 point shooting margin and individual performance

- Ray's only shooting 30% from 3 point range [vs 40% for his career]

and Wallace is only shooting 38% [vs 47% for his career].

Team rebounding margin went from ranking 3rd in 2008 to 2nd in 2009 to 18th this year.

Team 3 point shooting margin went from ranking 1st in 2008, to 2nd in 2009 to 19th this year.

Pierce's adjusted plus minus went from:

2008 = plus 9.15
2010 = minus 9.36 >>>>>>>>18 point swing

KG's adjusted plus minus went from:

2008 = plus 9.85
2010 = minus 7.71 >>>>>>>> 18 point swing

and more ....
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Re: Tommy said the Celtics are "elderly", is it a problem? 

Post#55 » by GuyClinch » Mon Nov 30, 2009 10:46 pm

My god why all the spaces in your writing? Are you like Cormac McCarthy or something? I think these numbers your so concerned with are statistical anomalies - and not something to be too concerned with. KGs rebounding is down because his legs aren't back yet. The big 3's (and Rondo's) +- is down because our bench really ripped a few teams benches apart in a bunch of games.

And BTW what are those +/- numbers 'adjusted' from? Are you just throwing that adjective into the 82games numbers? ..
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Re: Tommy said the Celtics are "elderly", is it a problem? 

Post#56 » by Wolves2011 » Mon Nov 30, 2009 11:23 pm

GuyClinch wrote:My god why all the spaces in your writing? Are you like Cormac McCarthy or something? I think these numbers your so concerned with are statistical anomalies - and not something to be too concerned with. KGs rebounding is down because his legs aren't back yet. The big 3's (and Rondo's) +- is down because our bench really ripped a few teams benches apart in a bunch of games.

And BTW what are those +/- numbers 'adjusted' from? Are you just throwing that adjective into the 82games numbers? ..


adjusted plus minus is not the same as plus minus. Read the 2nd link first, if you are not familiar.

http://basketballvalue.com/teamplayers. ... 0&team=BOS

http://www.82games.com/ilardi1.htm

As for your conclusion that its all statistical anomalies we'll see in the next few months.

Rondo's numbers are not down, they are up, at least for adjusted plus minus.

See my posting for details on celtics player trends over 4 seasons and playoffs for adjusted plus minus:
viewtopic.php?f=8&t=962909

To see my postings for:

Drop in 3 point shooting margin:
viewtopic.php?f=8&t=963007

Drop in rebounding margin:
viewtopic.php?f=8&t=962988

Change in win share over 3 seasons:
viewtopic.php?f=8&t=962946
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Re: Tommy said the Celtics are "elderly", is it a problem? 

Post#57 » by GuyClinch » Tue Dec 1, 2009 1:00 pm

Your sample size is too small - thus your harping on statistical anomalies out of convience. You flit about from this negative statistic to that one to 'prove' your point. Basically whatever statistics that might be "bad" you focus on.

The real truth is that the C's are among the elite NBA teams. We have the 11th best offense and the 3rd best defense. Will we improve from that? I think so. KG isn't back too full strength yet. BBD isn't playing again yet. This team will take some time to gel with the new additions.

Don't think that the fans here don't see your real goal - to dishearten them with reams of negative "information". This is why people don't like negative posters of course. They aren't really about pointing out some 'issue' with the team. Its about trying to spread this aura of doom and gloom. This is why people like you show no focus with your attacks. Its whatever negative crap you can get your hands on.

This is why you focus on say our "drop" in 3 point shooting - rather then how our offense ranking has remained about the same. Or our bad rebounding instead of our league leading points given up (91.9) and so on and so forth. Today its adjusted +/- and tommorow its 3 point shooting. Whatever "works" right? Its a lost cause though. The C's are still contenders. And I for one won't be writing them off until they actually lose in the playoffs..

Hell I am going to write it. Even in if the C's miss out on a championship its still fun watching them play with a good chance of winning each and every game. Try to find some joy in your life rather then "blessing" us with your inane negativing rantings. And if that's how you find joy do it on another board..

Pete
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Re: Tommy said the Celtics are "elderly", is it a problem? 

Post#58 » by Wolves2011 » Tue Dec 1, 2009 1:56 pm

GuyClinch wrote:Your sample size is too small - thus your harping on statistical anomalies out of convience. You flit about from this negative statistic to that one to 'prove' your point. Basically whatever statistics that might be "bad" you focus on.

The real truth is that the C's are among the elite NBA teams. We have the 11th best offense and the 3rd best defense. Will we improve from that? I think so. KG isn't back too full strength yet. BBD isn't playing again yet. This team will take some time to gel with the new additions.

Don't think that the fans here don't see your real goal - to dishearten them with reams of negative "information". This is why people don't like negative posters of course. They aren't really about pointing out some 'issue' with the team. Its about trying to spread this aura of doom and gloom. This is why people like you show no focus with your attacks. Its whatever negative crap you can get your hands on.

This is why you focus on say our "drop" in 3 point shooting - rather then how our offense ranking has remained about the same. Or our bad rebounding instead of our league leading points given up (91.9) and so on and so forth. Today its adjusted +/- and tommorow its 3 point shooting. Whatever "works" right? Its a lost cause though. The C's are still contenders. And I for one won't be writing them off until they actually lose in the playoffs..

Hell I am going to write it. Even in if the C's miss out on a championship its still fun watching them play with a good chance of winning each and every game. Try to find some joy in your life rather then "blessing" us with your inane negativing rantings. And if that's how you find joy do it on another board..

Pete


You make it seem as if the Celtics had played say 5 games and I was making conclusions. 17 games is over 1/5 of the season. 21% to be precise. I agree its not a big enough sample to reach conclusions with high confidence. But it does concern me.

You say the Celtics are among the elite teams on offense an defense. Thats precisely why I analyzed the quality of our opponents. The teams we have beat have a combined 79 wins and 140 losses. Our offensive and defensive efficiency stats are overstated because we have played such a weak schedule.

When played teams with records over .500, we have 3 wins and 3 losses. Not elite!!

You say my goal is to dishearten the readers of this forum. Why? What does that matter? Its not as if celtics players, team officials, family and friends all got their team news from here and I can affect the outcome of games, if I had a nefarious motives.

I'm merely presenting the truth. I say again, the Celtics could improve their performance. Nothing is written in stone. Even if the team stumbled into the playoffs, I still have some hope in "rising to the occasion" as Bill Russell's team in 1969 did, when they were 4th in the East and still beat a Lakers team with Baylor, West and Chamberlain for the championship.

I say again, things like "offensive & defensive ranking" are not meaningful when the teams we have beat are a combined 79 wins and 140 losses. We are complacent because we are 13 & 4. If we were say 10 & 7 people would be much more concerned. We could easily have lost a few more games, even to the likes of the Wolves who played us even a whole game. If we had played a tougher schedule, we could easily have more losses.

I've presented factual information for the boards use. Rather than thanking me, you criticize me for blemishing your fantasy.

This is an older team, that is not nearly as good as the one 2 years ago, or the first half of last season, at least so far. On paper they should be better than the one last year especially. The Celtics have to find new ways to win.

The effort to drive more and find cutters rather than totally relying on three point shots is a smart move in that regard. They will need good health and more such "smart thinking" if we are to hang #18 at the end of the season.
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Re: Tommy said the Celtics are "elderly", is it a problem? 

Post#59 » by MyInsatiableOne » Tue Dec 1, 2009 3:13 pm

Can someone just make him go away...?

:pray: :pray: :pray: :pray: :pray: :pray:
It's still 17 to 11!!!!

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