Roy Halladay Trade Thread (Done Deal)

Post #1 » by **Schad** » Thu Nov 19, 2009 6:15 pm

Oookay, it appears that this is the deal:

Toronto, outbound: Roy Halladay, cash, something else?.
Toronto, inbound: Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, Travis D'Arnaud.

Seattle, outbound: Phillippe Aumont, Tyson Gillies, Juan Ramirez.
Seattle, inbound: Cliff Lee, something else?

Philly, outbound: Lee, Taylor, Drabek, D'Arnaud.
Philly, inbound: Halladay, Aumont, Gillies, Ramirez, cash.

Griff83 · Post #2 » by **Griff83** » Thu Nov 19, 2009 7:38 pm

Apparently the Yankees have offered Phil Hughes and one of Montero/Jackson.

zilby · Post #3 » by **zilby** » Thu Nov 19, 2009 9:42 pm

ew i dont want hughes. i especially dont want doc on the skanks.

i like the dodgers, and billingsley is a good pitcher. plus its a team we dont play.

Griff83 · Post #4 » by **Griff83** » Thu Nov 19, 2009 9:46 pm

Why would you not want Hughes?

He looked downright dominant at times last season. HES ONLY 23 YEARS OLD. That is very very young when you look at other pitchers like Buccholz, Price, Garza, Shields, Romero. He has ace potential and has shown alot this season at a young age. I'd be estatic if we were able to aquire Hughes and Montero for Doc.

I couldnt care less if he was traded to the Yankees.

Post #5 » by **Schad** » Thu Nov 19, 2009 10:04 pm

Griff83 wrote:Apparently the Yankees have offered Phil Hughes and one of Montero/Jackson.

Figured that they'd probably offer something centered around Joba/Hughes and Montero, but that's definitely good news...with Billingsley+ likely on the table as well, and certainly other teams in the mix, it appears that waiting through last season hasn't done in his value. Still, it's a fine line between holding out to get the best deal possible in a bidding war and getting Santana'd by waiting too long.

Modern_epic · Post #6 » by **Modern_epic** » Thu Nov 19, 2009 10:39 pm

Griff83 wrote:Why would you not want Hughes?

He looked downright dominant at times last season. HES ONLY 23 YEARS OLD. That is very very young when you look at other pitchers like Buccholz, Price, Garza, Shields, Romero. He has ace potential and has shown alot this season at a young age. I'd be estatic if we were able to aquire Hughes and Montero for Doc.

I couldnt care less if he was traded to the Yankees.

On a personal level I would prefer Boston to New York, whose guts I hate oh-so much, but if they have the best deal, pull the trigger.

That being said, Hughes violates what are, in my mind, the two biggest laws of trading for prospects:

1) Don't trust New York or Boston prospects. They tend to universally be overrated by homer fans and homer sports writers.

2) TNSTAAPP - there's no such thing as a pitching prospect. Pitchers are just too hard to peg until they've finally made it, and Hughes hasn't yet. He is way less proven than Billingsley, for example. If you are offered a pitching prospect or a hitting prospect at the same level of development with similar ceilings, take the hitter and run. Pitchers blow out their arms or never develop that third or fourth pitch far too often.

Post #7 » by **YogiStewart** » Fri Nov 20, 2009 1:44 am

am i the only one who doesn't want a pitcher or pitching prospect coming back?
so many other holes (catcher!!! short stop!!! DH!!) that I'd rather throw out our current staff minus Roy instead of taking yet another pitching prospect.

dirtybird · Post #8 » by **dirtybird** » Fri Nov 20, 2009 3:01 am

This team is far away from contention. Better off to think about talent than filling holes.

Post #9 » by **Schad** » Fri Nov 20, 2009 10:27 am

dirtybird wrote:This team is far away from contention. Better off to think about talent than filling holes.

Agreed. I'd be wary of a package focused on one pitcher for the reasons modern_epic outlined, but I don't have a problem with a pitcher or pitchers making up a large portion of the deal if the value is right. We're likely to be somewhat bad after trading Doc...we can't worry about positions just yet, though obviously good shortstop/catcher prospects are at a premium for any team.

That's what makes Montero really intriguing. For now, at least, he's a catcher, and one with a great bat. He played in AA as a 19 year old this year and posted terrific numbers; even if his size (he's 6'4") means a move to 1B or DH down the road, his bat definitely plays.

Michael Bradley · Post #10 » by **Michael Bradley** » Fri Nov 20, 2009 12:56 pm

I would prefer the prospects be MLB ready, or at least damn near close to it. The lower they are in the minors the more uncertain their futures are. The Jays need to hit a monster home run with this trade as moving Doc essentially kills the attendance and any success the team might be able to attain over the next five years. No sense in moving him for prospects in A or AA, unless they are very highly touted (i.e. Montero). Billingsley, while appealing as an established MLB pitcher, might be a bit of a risk since he has about 3 years of service time, meaning he is only under the team's control for another 3 years. Not sure if that is worth the risk, although if he is not represented by Boras then there is a chance to extend him before he becomes a FA.

I don't want to moveHalladay to the Yankees, but Hughes/Joba, Montero, and Jackson would be a decent package. Whether they would give up all three is a different story. Giving them a Doc/CC/AJ front three all but assures them another WS, if not more if Doc re-signs with them, so screw it. Either rob the Yankees of their top prospects or don't deal with them. Ditto Boston.

Of course, we could always keep Doc and go for it, but that would require spending some money which obviously is not on the team's agenda right now (see Rios dump, draft pick debacle, etc).

Post #11 » by **Schad** » Fri Nov 20, 2009 2:31 pm

Michael Bradley wrote:I would prefer the prospects be MLB ready, or at least damn near close to it. The lower they are in the minors the more uncertain their futures are.

For the primary pieces, yeah...I'd be very wary of any position players below AA as a centerpiece or a pitcher below AAA. I wouldn't mind a couple of lower-level prospects as 3rd or 4th pieces, though.

I also wouldn't be against packing Downs with Halladay to extract a bit of extra value.

Post #12 » by **Morris_Shatford** » Fri Nov 20, 2009 3:44 pm

There seems to be some fire to the Dodger - Billingsley rumors.

Anyone have any idea what else aside from the 25 year old is included in the package?

Post #13 » by **Schad** » Fri Nov 20, 2009 4:15 pm

cosmostein wrote:There seems to be some fire to the Dodger - Billingsley rumors.

Anyone have any idea what else aside from the 25 year old is included in the package?

No clue, though if NY is offering Montero it'll take quite a bit of sweetener beyond Billingsley. Devaris Gordon (21 year old SS with blazing speed, some distance from the majors), Josh Lindblom (22 year old RHP in AAA, fast riser), and Ethan Martin (20 year old RHSP, blazing stuff but control issues) are probably the best they have to offer, unless I'm missing someone. Gordon is really intriguing, but doesn't stand up to Montero, who is one of the top prospects in all of baseball.

Hoopstarr · Post #14 » by **Hoopstarr** » Fri Nov 20, 2009 5:09 pm

I really don't like the idea of my top prospect being a catcher, but Montero looks to be the real deal. Personally, I'd prefer a deal with the Rockies. They have a bunch of nice young players, plus some established guys. I'd ask for some combination of Carlos Gonzalez, Dexter Fowler, Garrett Atkins, and Christian Friedrich. I'd throw in a guy like Downs or Frasor to bump up the price like Schad said. Colorado would seem to be a win-win for everyone. Doc is from there and he would take them to another level in a competitive division.

Post #15 » by **Schad** » Fri Nov 20, 2009 10:53 pm

The Jays have apparently reached out to the Cubs to gauge interest:

http://hotstove.mlblogs.com/archives/20 ... re_ha.html

The Cubs are one of the teams the Blue Jays have contacted regarding pitcher Roy Halladay. However, before Cubs fans start salivating at the prospect of the former Cy Young winner in the rotation with Ted Lilly, Carlos Zambrano, and Ryan Dempster, there's a catch. He's owed $15.75 million in 2010, and the Blue Jays want some of the Cubs' top prospects. No. 1, the team can't take on Halladay's salary. The Blue Jays apparently have a wish list and Milton Bradley is not on it. A player like highly regarded shortstop Starlin Castro most likely is, and the Cubs don't want to part with him, especially since they might only have Halladay for one year. The right-hander was 17-10 with a 2.79 ERA this season, and is a free agent after 2010. One thing the Blue Jays did make clear to the Cubs is they want to move Halladay this offseason.

Castro is a 19 year old SS who made it all the way to double-A this year, and did well there. Not much power (then again, he's 19 and playing in AA), but good speed and a guy who vaulted up their prospect rankings.

Garmfay · Post #16 » by **Garmfay** » Fri Nov 20, 2009 11:09 pm

^I would also like Josh Vitters in the deal

Post #17 » by **Schad** » Sat Nov 21, 2009 12:45 am

Heh, unfortunately I don't think the Cubs would even consider trading him...they're a little more attached to their prospects than the Yankees.

kelso · Post #18 » by **kelso** » Sat Nov 21, 2009 3:14 am

Schadenfreude wrote:Heh, unfortunately I don't think the Cubs would even consider trading him...they're a little more attached to their prospects than the Yankees.

What do you think of Jake Fox? He could play any of 1B/3B/LF/DH and I think would be a monster at the plate in the American League. I'd love to see this guy on the Jays.

Post #19 » by **Schad** » Sat Nov 21, 2009 1:14 pm

Fox would make for a nice piece, though definitely not a centerpiece simply because of his age (27, 28 mid-season and with ~250 career PAs). Still, his numbers are so good in AAA that you can't really chalk it up to experience/PCL stat inflation...I doubt he'd be a monster, but a .270/.333/.460 guy with 25 HRs and plenty of versatility is an excellent guy to have around. He has gotten a raw deal in Chicago because the only two positions he can't play (2B and SS) happen to be the only positions that aren't filled by big-money guys.

I really don't think that the Cubs are going to be serious players though; their pitching was excellent this past year, but everyone save for Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez laid eggs. Problem being that they are paying ridiculous sums of money to their power position players, which leads me to believe that they are likely to sit on their hands to some extent (unless they get a sweetheart deal), especially with new ownership.

Griff83 · Post #20 » by **Griff83** » Sat Nov 21, 2009 11:08 pm

Why is everyone so high on Billingsley?

He posted a ERA of over 4 in the soft hitting NL west last season. He has never had a whip of under 1.30. His coach didnt even feel comfortable enough with putting him into the rotation in the playoffs. Hes been hit hard more often then not when he's pitched against the American league. Hes not exactly young like Hughes, Kershaw etc, hes already 25. He's overweight and LA Dodger fans have numerous times called him a mental midget because he rarely pitches well in big games. I personally think he's badly overrated and would get knocked around pretty good in the AL East.