MN / Houston

[the_bruce]

Trade for TMAC?

What's next?
Sign Ai?

[skorff26]

I wrote about a similar deal just this week.

Your deal is based on talent and fit, but it only saves HOU $1.875 mil. With Pops picked up by TOR and off their books, they are currently $2.887 mil over the lux. I think you need to merge yours with this:

McGrady for Blount + Cardinal + Wilkins.

This saves HOU:

+$4.5 salary
+$2.8 lux taxes
+$4.8 lux share
-----------------------
$12 mil. savings.

I think combining your deal with the big extra financial gain from mine, you come out with something like


McGrady + Dorsey + Taylor + lottery protected pick + $3 mil for Blount + Cardinal + Gomes

=======================================================================================

HOU fans believe that they'll just swap $3.5 mil Cook for a TPE at the trade deadline with $3 mil cash, and slide under the lux. It won't be nearly that easy, or that cheap.

There are five teams left with a TPE of $3.4 mil. (100% + $100,000)

$3,696,000 Denver
$4,260,000 Miami
$3,945,000 New Orleans
$6,864,200 Orlando
$3,763,525 New Jersey

The first four are all out, because they have their own lux problems to worry about. NJN is the only chance, and five teams are just over the lux (HOU, NOH, MIA, PHO and DEN) and nine more teams are currently over the lux and would also like the double savings. NJN has 14 suitors, and 5 that stand to save a whole lot of money, if they can reclaim their lux share. I think they can certainly get more than $1 mil profit and half a season of Brian Cook for it.

Since there aren't enough TPE's, the key will be to create new ones for the teams that value from them most.

You can add in Sacramento and OKC (2x) since they have enough cap space to take back 3.4 million.

Also I don't think Denver is too worried about the luxury tax this year and NOH doesn't really have anyone that they can dump (Phoenix is kind of in the same position as well).
So that leaves Houston and Miami who will dump salary and OKC, Sacramento, and NJ that can take salary back.

[shrink]

Good post skorff.

I'm writing about this in three different areas and I forget what I've written in each place. I'm glad you pointed out the cap space that OKC and SAC have, and teams could also shed 2009 salary if a player accepts a buy-out for less, or they can get it from a team like us -- by creating a TPE. Those teams need to have the cap space, and the pieces (often expirings), to make a good financial deal.

I agree that DEN won't be able to do anything to get under the lux .. their economics are too messed up, with too many big contracts. However, I'll point out that they proved me wrong last year when I said the same thing, so if there's another Chauncey Billups deal out there ...! I think NOH will try to get under the lux, and despite Chris Paul's frustrations, they'll deal talent to do it.

The other nine teams that are over the lux benefit as well by reclaiming as much lux as they can. I think teams that are likely to try hard to reduce their payroll are UTA ($11.8 mil over) and WAS if they lose too much more, and look like a middle-of-the-pack team.