Is there anything left to discuss about Rudy Gay?

[shrink]

We've discussed Rudy Gay from a bunch of different angles. Does he fit here? Not? Should we try for him in Free Agency? Should we trade for him? Before the deadline or this summer in a S&T? Believe it or not, I have a scenario we probably haven't discussed.

Suppose its the Trade Deadline and MEM is struggling along, headed straight for another seat at the lottery, and continued low attendance and numbers in the red. They've got Zach Randolph on the books for next year for a ball-breaking $17.3 mil and with Jaric, that's $25 mil they have to cover. Even if Gay hadn't been frustrated on-and-off for the last year with his teammates and management, they can tell right now that they simply can't afford to match a big offer for him -- and maybe even a smaller offer. They simply don't bring in enough revenues.

They own Rudy's rights, but they don't have the financial strength to use them. In that arena, he has more value to a team that could -- like ourselves.

MEM has three choices:

1. Trade Rudy at the deadline. Advantages? They don't have to cap-match to take back a lot of salary they can't afford in 2010-11. Losing Rudy probably helps their 2010 draft pick. Potentially they make the locker room better.

2. This Summer, Match a qualifying offer, then sign and trade. Advantages? Maybe get more value if Rudy's play improves in the second half.

3. This summer, don't match an offer.

I think that #1 is the best choice for MEM. Salary will be an issue, so #2 may add too many dollars. The sign-and-trade needs to be somewhere rudy wants to go if they want to get good assets.


Should MIN make an offer at the Deadline?

Disadvantages: They may be able to get him for no trade assets -- just cap space -- next Summer.
Advantages: They get a try-out.

The biggest advantage though is that they own that Qualifying Offer Most of us flinch because Gay would carry a $9.5 mil cap hold next summer that bites us until we sign him or let him go. But once we make a Q.O, we gain two things. First, we get the right to match offers, so its possible we'll get a lowball offer that he accepts. Second, and this is the important thing ..

... there's nothing preventing US from trading Rudy Gay

Depending on the price MEM will be asking at the Trade Deadline, Rudy Gay could be a value play. He's played well lately, but I think that he'll eventually stop getting as many passes from Zach Randolph and Mayo, and his attitude and numbers will suffer again. Putting him on MIN should increase those numbers and his trade value. We would have the ability to decide whether we wanted to trade him -- perhaps to a team that would give us back our cap space.

I understand I'm writing this fast and its a little disjointed, but the logic is:

FEB: MIN pays trade asset -- gets Rudy Gay
JULY MIN trades Rudy Gay -- gets back capspace and better assets

Now of course, if Gay is working well for us, perhaps we just keep him, but my point is that his QO is more valuable to us than it is to MEM, and that difference in value may allow us to come up with a trade that makes sense for both teams.

[Breakdown777]

If we did trade for Gay, what would it take to get him? He is still a talent and I don't see MEM giving him up for just exp. deals. If we trade say the Jazz pick with Cardinal (does that work? I'm just guessing) for Gay, then we don't resign gay, we spend a 1st round pick to have Gay on a horrible team for half a season. There are risks associated with dealing for him depending on what we have to give up.

Because I think Gay is probably the best player we could get (maybe Joe Johnson but I doubt it), I'd say wait anyways because either way we'll pay the same amount for him. In one case we don't give up a 1st rounder, so I say wait until the offseason.

[I Am Awesome-O]

Memphis's financial situation is being overblown here. Keep in mind that they traded for Zach Randolph this summer knowing fully well that they were going to have to pay him and Gay in 2010/2011. If they were worried that it would affect the Gay contract situation, they wouldn't have made the Randolph deal.

Bottom line, finances aren't going to be the deciding factor in whether or not Gay is going to be kept here. They will most likely make enough money deals around the deadline that bring in $3M a pop that it would more than cancel out Gay's contract for next year if he were to be extended. If Gay isn't kept, the cause will either be that they were offered a package that they couldn't refuse for him, or they simply don't like his fit with the rest of the team long-term.

Furthermore, the Grizzlies owner, Michael Heisley, is infatuated with Gay and has said that he has turned down multiple offers for him (and that was when he actually had significant value). Heisley is running the show in Memphis, so he will likely match anything up to $12M a year.

[cpfsf]

What's the most your willing to offer Gay?

How much would a team have to offer Gay to secure his rights (an amount Memphis would never match)

Would Gay fit in the lineup. If not, who would have to go?

If we acquire Gay, are we done rebuilding (I would define that as being the summer we give LAC our pick)?

[Narf]

Gay is a waste of cap space. He's nothing special, he's not coming here until the off season (if ever), so it's just a dead issue. I'd rather bring over Pekovic and get a reasonably priced SF who plays both ways than grab a volume shooter who gets into on-court arguments with OJ Mayo (don't care who's fault it is, I just don't want him with our cap space).

The only deal that makes any sense is Hollins for Gay, and that doesn't make sense to the Griz.

[Tekkenlaw]

I'm not a big gay guy, I like guys who are rock solid.

[shrink]

Memphis's financial situation is being overblown here. Keep in mind that they traded for Zach Randolph this summer knowing fully well that they were going to have to pay him and Gay in 2010/2011. If they were worried that it would affect the Gay contract situation, they wouldn't have made the Randolph deal.

I don't believe that's true at all. Even according to MEM press, there are questions whether OJ Mayo and Rudy Gay can co-exist. MEM posters said that wasn't as big an issue and that Gay's reduced production last year was because the coaching staff wasn't running plays for him. The addition of Zach Randolph, and then Iverson, certainly wasn't the front office's attempt to get the ball in Gay's hands more. And on top of that, there were Gay's frustrations that kept boiling over enough to reach the national media.

For example, suppose you've always had little money in the checkbook. You need a car to get to work, and you splurge on a useful but over-priced one. Does that fact demonstrate money is not an issue in buying a boat a year from now?

There are two choices for MEM's behavior, trading for Zach Randolph's huge contract.

1. They suddenly, miraculously, changed from a team that has one of the NBA's smallest markets, and biggest financial losers for several years, including the Gasol trade, and "finances aren't going to be the deciding factor in whether or not Gay is going to be kept here." MEM is suddenly a team that in 2010 can add $17.3 for Zach and $10 mil for Gay?

2. They already decided that they aren't keeping Gay, and wanted to use his future money elsewhere, win games now, and try to get more people to buy tickets and make money.

[funkatron101]

I'm not a big gay guy, I like guys who are rock solid.

[shrink]

I went to check MEM's attendance after paying Zach Randolph, and its gone from bad to worse.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/attendanc ... asonType=2

This year through 7 games they are drawing only 11,600 fans (last in the NBA) and an abysmal 64% capacity. By comparison, MIN is losing money with 15,381 (21) and 79.5% (24).

Sadly, MEM had better attendance before acquiring Zach. In the 2008-09 season, they had 12,745 (29th) and 70.3% (last in the league).

MEM added more longterm debt with Zach Randolph, and aren't getting the revenues to afford him and Rudy Gay next year.

[Esohny]

I like the fact that Gay can be a go-to scorer (and pretty efficient, not just volume), and can get to the line. He'd also give the team a needed injection of size/athleticism, and he has the capacity to be a good defender. I sure wouldn't mind giving Rambis and company a chance to maximize Gay's talent outside the terrible environment of Memphis.

I'd still draft Turner and all of a sudden our talent on the perimeter looks a hell of a lot better.

Bottom line, I wouldn't mind trading for Gay, but not until the deadline, and as always it depends on what Memphis would require for him, if they want an arm and a leg, I would just wait and take a shot at him in free agency.

[sfernald]

I've watched every Grizzlies game this year, and I can tell you that Gay is the Grizzlies best player this year, with Gasol a close second.

Just think about what it would take for some team to pry Al away from you and you have an idea of the cost.

The Grizz are currently set at SG and C, but they have possible needs at PG and PF (and then SF if Gay goes). Since Zach is there, PG and SF would probably be the most pressing needs, but you don't really have any SFs so I would have to look at PG and PF [Zach's valuable expiring (2010) could be traded any time after the end of this year].

So I would propose:

Gay

for

Love
Rubio

or

Gay
Hunter

for

Love
Flynn

I actually believe that would probably do it considering how bad Conley has been playing.

Forget about sessions, and forget about any SF you guys have. Not interested.

In any case, you need to be realistic about what it would cost to get the Grizzlie's best player. You won't get him in free agency either. The Grizzlies will match market value. You can never bank on getting a RFA. It just doesn't usually happen. Gay is an absolute stud and such players end up as sign and trades in the worst case.

[B Calrissian]

^ Those are awful. I doubt you find any fans here that would trade Love, Rubio, or Flynn straight up for Gay and you are asking for 2 of them.

[shrink]

Bottom line, I wouldn't mind trading for Gay, but not until the deadline, and as always it depends on what Memphis would require for him, if they want an arm and a leg, I would just wait and take a shot at him in free agency.

I agree with all of this.

First, MIN has to be careful. His cap hold will be three times his 2009-10 salary, or about $9.8 mil. He'd bite deeply into our cap space big this summer until we'd either signed him for less, traded him, or dropped him (refused to salary match). Timing plays a part. If we couldn't be rid of that cap hold for three weeks, several key free agents could be gone and we could be stuck with him.

Second, figuring out the right price would be tough. If MEM isn't going to sign-and-trade him because they can't take the extra salary, and won't match an offer for the same reason, his value to them is as a scoring 2010-11 expiring. A 2009-10 expiring saves them money and the cap hold. However, economically, MEM doesn't have to sell him that cheaply, because they may get several offers for him. They'd probably want an expiring and a future asset. He's a hard asset to figure out a price for, particularly since he locks up our cap space (at least temporarily) and we might have a chance to get him for nothing. Maybe something like Wilkins and the UTA pick, and see if another team wants to beat it. Its less than he's worth, but I think he's a guy I dare them to barter on, and risk getting stuck with a hot potato they can't hold in summer of 2010.

[sfernald]

^ Those are awful. I doubt you find any fans here that would trade Love, Rubio, or Flynn straight up for Gay and you are asking for 2 of them.

You should move on to a lesser player then... I think Luke Walton might be available from the Lakers... hehe. At least he knows the triangle.

[Esohny]

So I would propose:

Gay

for

Love
Rubio

or

Gay
Hunter

for

Love
Flynn

Congrats, between these trades and the "Wolves take on tons of knicks dead weight for nothing" trade in the other thread, you've managed to come up with several of the worst trades I've seen in a while.

[sfernald]

So I would propose:

Gay

for

Love
Rubio

or

Gay
Hunter

for

Love
Flynn

Congrats, between these trades and the "Wolves take on tons of knicks dead weight for nothing" trade in the other thread, you've managed to come up with several of the worst trades I've seen in a while.

You are the guys thinking the Grizz are going to give away their best player for expirings...haha.

[Esohny]

You are the guys thinking the Grizz are going to give away their best player for expirings...haha.

That's actually not what was suggested, but nice attempt at reading. As for the Grizzlies, I'm sure many would agree that they have a great track record of making really intelligent trades and personnel decisions that benefit their team greatly.

[Krapinsky]

So I would propose:

Gay

for

Love
Rubio

or

Gay
Hunter

for

Love
Flynn

Congrats, between these trades and the "Wolves take on tons of knicks dead weight for nothing" trade in the other thread, you've managed to come up with several of the worst trades I've seen in a while.

Yeah, this fernald guy sucks.

[sfernald]

You are the guys thinking the Grizz are going to give away their best player for expirings...haha.

That's actually not what was suggested, but nice attempt at reading. As for the Grizzlies, I'm sure many would agree that they have a great track record of making really intelligent trades and personnel decisions that benefit their team greatly.

Ok, what do you have if not Rubio, Flynn, Love, or your 1st??

Keep in mind you are asking for the Grizzlies best player, so it has to be worthy of that... What would you ask for if a team wanted Big Al?? Also, keep in mind you are the ones initiating the trade, it's not like the Grizz are begging for you to take him.

[sfernald]

So I would propose:

Gay

for

Love
Rubio

or

Gay
Hunter

for

Love
Flynn

Congrats, between these trades and the "Wolves take on tons of knicks dead weight for nothing" trade in the other thread, you've managed to come up with several of the worst trades I've seen in a while.

Yeah, this fernald guy sucks.

Sorry to be a dreamkiller but getting Rudy Gay for crap/expirings/whatever you want to give away, is just a pipedream.