Around the NFL

[The Explorer]

The 3-6 Buffalo Bills fired Dick Jauron.

[dougthonus]

The ball was on the 28 yard line. Had they punted the ball it very easily could have been 65-70 yards that was needed to drive for the win. If you don't get it, you know your going to lose. It's not like it was a half a yard or anything, it was 2 yards. I understand the fact that you have one of the best offenses in the league and that if you do get the 1st down you win the game but in this scenario I'm playing conservative and letting my defense get the job done.

Why do you know if you're going to lose if you don't get the 2 yards? Your defense can still stop the Colts from scoring a TD since a FG is irrelevant. The last yards are always the hardest to get because the end zone acts as a defender. You have less field to convert.

If your defense can't stop them from getting 28 yards at the end, it's odds aren't good at stopping them in the 40 yards before that either. Those yards are easier to get because you have to defend the deep routes, so the field is much bigger.

Peyton Manning is difficult enough to stop in the middle of the field anyway, but with four downs to use in a no punt scenario, he becomes REALLY hard to stop. Time wasn't a factor here, so it's not like they could run out the clock.

I like the odds of giving my offense and my defense a chance rather than just giving my defense a chance.

[dougthonus]

What's the probability of Manning driving 28 yards down the field if he has four downs? I'd put that well over the 75% you gave the 40 yard drive, which is wrong regardless since it would have been about 70 yards.

The Colts were going to have to drive 28 yards and score a TD no matter what. The only difference in the equation is the extra 40 yards.

This is putting no trust in your defense to stop an offense that, while it is dynamic, is not perfect. He backed his defense into a corner by saying "If we don't get this first down, you have no room for error." But 70 yards to work with?

His defense still had a chance to win the game. He gave his offense and his defense a chance to win the game.

They get the first down they win the game, I get that. But punt the ball and there's still an overwhelming chance you win the game. The Pats defense picked off Manning earlier that half and forced a fumble of Manning earlier in the game. And if the Colts drove down the field and scored regardless, oh well. Manning and the Colts beat you. But they beat themselves. They didn't give their defense any opportunity to make a stop.

There's not an overwhelming chance you win the game if you punt the ball. Manning already had four drives of 79+ yards for TDs in the game, two of them on the last three possessions if memory serves me correctly.

You're basically saying, if you do the conventional thing and lose it's okay because no one will rip on you, but if you do the unconventional thing and lose then you're stupid. It doesn't matter which of those things give you a better chance to win, you should take the path that gathers less criticism.

As a side note, I don't see how people have this view that Manning is an automatic to score a TD from 28 yards out, but it's near impossible that he'd score one from 70 yards out. 28 yards is certainly easier, but the yards in the middle of the field are FAR easier to get, especially with 4 downs to work with. I'm not saying the odds of 70 yards and 28 are the same, but the odds are certainly not 1/3rd as big from 70 yards. You maybe made things twice as hard on your defense at the expense of having a 60% chance or so to win the game out right.

[SportsWorld]

Deja Vu for Kyle Orton. Has a terrific 1st half of the season before he suffers an injury midway through. If this plays out like last year, he'll look like the worst QB in the NFL in his last few games.

[NoSkyy]

I didn't read all of your post Doug but I think one thing you've overlooked for the defense is it's a clear mentality that when you avoid conventional wisdom and go for it. You're in a way telling your defense, they're not good enough to stop Manning and you rather secure the win with your offense. ANd you can argue that's not the message being sent but hey, it's hard to take that off your mind when the defense has to gear up. It's fourth down. We have to get ready to get on the field. Wait. Never mind. Our coach is going for it.

Teddy Bruschi, former NE linebacker was quoted in saying If I was the defense, I would be **** pissed my coach did that. Or something along that line. That's not something you measure by probability.

[NoSkyy]

With that said. I would have went for it. I always go for it. My high school coach played with the "**** it, if we can see it, we're going for it" mentality(mainly because our FG kicker sucks) and I know if I can't get it. I'm going to stop you anyway.

[Howling Mad]

Deja Vu for Kyle Orton. Has a terrific 1st half of the season before he suffers an injury midway through. If this plays out like last year, he'll look like the worst QB in the NFL in his last few games.

More like Groundhog Day...dating back to his college days.

[DJhitek]

The ball was on the 28 yard line. Had they punted the ball it very easily could have been 65-70 yards that was needed to drive for the win. If you don't get it, you know your going to lose. It's not like it was a half a yard or anything, it was 2 yards. I understand the fact that you have one of the best offenses in the league and that if you do get the 1st down you win the game but in this scenario I'm playing conservative and letting my defense get the job done.

Why do you know if you're going to lose if you don't get the 2 yards? Your defense can still stop the Colts from scoring a TD since a FG is irrelevant. The last yards are always the hardest to get because the end zone acts as a defender. You have less field to convert.

If your defense can't stop them from getting 28 yards at the end, it's odds aren't good at stopping them in the 40 yards before that either. Those yards are easier to get because you have to defend the deep routes, so the field is much bigger.

Peyton Manning is difficult enough to stop in the middle of the field anyway, but with four downs to use in a no punt scenario, he becomes REALLY hard to stop. Time wasn't a factor here, so it's not like they could run out the clock.

I like the odds of giving my offense and my defense a chance rather than just giving my defense a chance.

Doug you make good points, but there is no way going for it on 4th and 2 at your own 28 is the best decision to make.

I also think your understating 70 yards vice 28, while Manning has more room to work with he is also limited in the play calling. You can't call a running play with so little time to go, he had that opportunity from the 28 and it puts your defense on their heels with so little margin for error.

The statistical reasoning is irrelevant, you make Peyton Manning beat you from 70 yards out. I don't buy that Bill made the call because he didn't trust his defense or he somehow has this new found respect for Peyton Manning.

I'd bet he doesn't give two squirts about Manning, he doesn't make calls because he is afraid of any player. He makes calls because he is an egomanaic and is truly full of himself. This guy throws the ball downfield in blowouts, it's who he is. He made a dumb call and it didn't work. Kudos for audacity to make such a call but doesn't change the fact it was the wrong call to make and he cost his team the opportunity to win.

[Balance-a-Bull]

After watching the Bears play over the last month or so.... It's good to take some off to laugh instead of crying while watching the Bears.

I know this is college football instead of the NFL, but you guys will find this video absolutely hilarious !

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/b ... aaf,206179

[ChronicKerr]

Just found this video of Stafford Mic'd up during the win over the Browns 2 weeks ago.. I wish I saw more of these mic'd up videos.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wEaFYsKg-7c

[SportsWorld]

Packers with 2 turnovers on 3 plays and are down 14-0. That sucks.

[The Explorer]

Its always great to see the packers getting their asses kicked

[SportsWorld]

Well that was a boring game.

[Posey H8er]

Since their fans always act like a-holes I was happy to see this.