Hollinger's predicted stats with Rubio

[cpfsf]

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=hollinger_john&month=6&year=2008&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fespn%2fblog%2findex%3fname%3dhollinger_john%26month%3d6%26year%3d2008

The reason this works is that there's a predictable relationship between a player's stats in the Euroleague -- the highest level of European basketball -- and what they'll be in the NBA. Crossing the Atlantic does the following to a player's results:

• Scoring rate decreases 25 percent
• Rebound rate increases by 18 percent (there are more missed shots in NBA play)
• Assist rate increases by 31 percent (Euro scorers are tightwads with assists)
• Shooting percentage drops by 12 percent
• Overall, PER drops by 30 percent.

Now this article is more than a year old, but I decided to play around with it.

Current stats with FC Barcelona
19.8 MPG
5.2 PPG
2.1 RPG
4.9 APG
47.8 FG%

Rubio's projected stats
19.8 MPG
3.9 PPG
2.5 RPG
6.4 APG
35.8 FG%

Rubio's stats per 48
9.5 PPG
6 RPG
15.5 APG (second only to Steve Nash)

Ricky Rubio with 33 MPG.
6.5 PPG
4.2 RPG
10.7 APG

[hotshotschamp]

I'n not sure i put much stock in this...

if at all. Interesting read nonetheless.

[lobishome]

I only say two words ..... Brandon Jennings ...

[Foye]

I'd expect like 10 pts,4 rebs and 8 assists per 30 minutes from him if he was playing here right now

[Foye]

I only say two words ..... Brandon Jennings ...

The obvious example that Hollingers statistic sucks

[Narf]

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=hollinger_john&month=6&year=2008&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fespn%2fblog%2findex%3fname%3dhollinger_john%26month%3d6%26year%3d2008

The reason this works is that there's a predictable relationship between a player's stats in the Euroleague -- the highest level of European basketball -- and what they'll be in the NBA. Crossing the Atlantic does the following to a player's results:

• Scoring rate decreases 25 percent
• Rebound rate increases by 18 percent (there are more missed shots in NBA play)
• Assist rate increases by 31 percent (Euro scorers are tightwads with assists)
• Shooting percentage drops by 12 percent
• Overall, PER drops by 30 percent.

Now this article is more than a year old, but I decided to play around with it.

Current stats with FC Barcelona
19.8 MPG
5.2 PPG
2.1 RPG
4.9 APG
47.8 FG%

Rubio's projected stats
19.8 MPG
3.9 PPG
2.5 RPG
6.4 APG
35.8 FG%

Rubio's stats per 48
9.5 PPG
6 RPG
15.5 APG (second only to Steve Nash)

Ricky Rubio with 33 MPG.
6.5 PPG
4.2 RPG
10.7 APG

He conveniently left out steals, which Rubio would lead the NBA in.

[cpfsf]

He conveniently left out steals, which Rubio would lead the NBA in.

The articles more than a year old. It talks about guys like Gallinari and Pekovic.

[C.lupus]

Don't think it is valid to compare scoring rate with Ricky as he's not asked to score with his current team.

[hotshotschamp]

chris paul would stlil lead the league in steals.

[The J Rocka]

According to this we can assume he will be a poor mans late-career Jason Kidd

[hotshotschamp]

thats why jonny flynn is our man!!!

[Basti]

scoring rates decrease when you cross the Atlantic Ocean? seriously??? this is why Childress is a 25+ ppg scorer in Europe right? RIGHT??

[lobishome]

If Rubio travels to the east, crossing Asia, the Pacific Ocean and the Rocky Mountains, maybe he increases his averages in a 50%.

[Narf]

chris paul would stlil lead the league in steals.

Why is it that the less you know about a subject, the more you feel the need to enter your opinion as if it's obviously right? Hollinger's predictions take the average statistical change of Euro players to the NBA, and assumes a uniform change in stats. This is about the statistical averages, and Rubio had an insane steal rate in Euroleague.

[cpfsf]

I don't think this is horribly off target 6.5 PPG 4.2 RPG 10.7 APG. If we said he was going to average a few more points with his 4.2 rebounds and 10.7 assists, that would be pretty comparable to Steve Nash.

[hotshotschamp]

chris paul would stlil lead the league in steals.

Why is it that the less you know about a subject, the more you feel the need to enter your opinion as if it's obviously right? Hollinger's predictions take the average statistical change of Euro players to the NBA, and assumes a uniform change in stats. This is about the statistical averages, and Rubio had an insane steal rate in Euroleague.

yawn

Chris paul is proven in the nba, i don't care about some guys Euro/NBA formulas. This isn't Europe, it's the NBA.

Paul has proven it in the NBA, and I'm pretty sure I just watched him get 8 steals, against our t-pups.
Paul is much faster and has better hands then pretty ricky. To say without certainty Rubio will come right in the NBA and be the steals leader is pure stupidity. There's some pretty good players in the NBA, I think Paul and many other NBA players may have a say in that.

Omar Cook averages way more pts, and more assists than Rubio in similar minutes, and Omar Cook was a NBA bust. I could care less what some writer says how their stats will play from Euro-league to NBA.

I bet Hollingers stat analysis didn't predict Jennings would average 20 pts, 6 asissts per game. This Hollinger stat breakdown is dumb, and stupid to read anything into it.

[fattymcgee]

scoring rates decrease when you cross the Atlantic Ocean? seriously??? this is why Childress is a 25+ ppg scorer in Europe right? RIGHT??

Actually he scores about 21ppg per 40 min in the Euroleague which would equate to about 15ppg per 40min in the NBA according to Hollinger's formula. Seems like a pretty good formula to me although there are always exceptions.