Assists, Wins, and 3 pt%

[threrf23]

Some interesting observation(s)...so far this season, if I calculate correctly,

When KG has racked up at least 4 assists, we are 7-1, and shooting 43% from long range. The one loss was to Phoenix. Interestingly, there has been no one shooter excelling during these games.

When PP has 6 or more assists, we are 5-1, and shooting 44%+ from long range. The lone loss was to Phoenix, and PP has shot around 50% from long range in these games. In games where he has two assists per less, he is shooting under 30%

When Rondo posts at least 12 assists, we are 4-0, despite only shooting 24% from long range. When Rondo has at least 11, we are 8-1 (lone loss to PHX), though shooting only 26% from long range.

When Ray has at least 4 assists, we are 4-4, shooting 37% from long range. Ray himself shot about 36% from long range during these games.

When Perk has at least 2 assists, we are 7-0 and shooting 30% from long range

When House posts at least 2 assists, we are 4-0, shooting 42% from long range. House has averaged less than 15 mpg in these games, and has shot about 38% from long range himself. Rasheed has shot well in these games.

When Marquis Daniels posts at least 3 assists, we are 5-2 (one loss to PHX), and shooting 28% from long range.

(ETA - worth noting, we are 13-0 when Rasheed hits at least 2 threes)

I haven't been able to watch all the games this season, but I would personally guess, keyword being guess, Rondo probably needs to keep doing what he's doing with maybe minor changes, Ray needs to fight his desire and stick more to simply spot up shooting. PP is seeking for balance when he shoots well, which is awesome, but he could also take on more play creating responsibilities when his shot isn't falling. Perk needs to realize that, when he finds himself one-on-one with a good defender, passing is a good alternative to scoring when trying to establish himself offensively. KG instinctively knows how to find the hot hand, which is why we might want to consider running the offense through him earlier and more often late in the game?

[3pt %]

Why did you put my name in the title?

[GuyClinch]

Problem with tracking assists is you get a huge variation depending on the scorer..Rondo would have had 7 or 8 assists on the road tonight instead of 11 at home..Not only that but assists are so dependent on the shooter. For example Pierce got a couple of assists on passes to wide open KG (who is nearly at the 3 point line). Most other bigs miss those shots. So alot of assists can just be a function of shooting percentage not really great passing..

[ryaningf]

First, Pete makes a good point about the variable nature of what constitutes an 'assist'.

But, in general, these #s support one conclusion--when we have good ball movement, we win games. That's not exactly an earthshaker. The recent uptick in efficiency has been marked with improved ball movement, and player movement, resulting in multiple picks per possession and higher % shots. When we move the ball and our bodies we cannot be stopped.

[threrf23]

So alot of assists can just be a function of shooting percentage not really great passing..

No doubt, but some factors should even themselves out over time to an extent, and sometimes shooting % is affected by the quality of pass and other related factors, i.e. finding the right hand, setting a shooter up.

But, in general, these #s support one conclusion--when we have good ball movement, we win games. That's not exactly an earthshaker.

True, but along the above lines I also thought it was interesting that when Rondo was the one dominating the assists, while we would generally be successful, we are shooting real poorly from long range. I don't know if that could simply result from us letting Rondo take more control when our shooters are not hot....and I also thought it was interesting that despite the other indications, we are undefeated this season, 13-0, when Ray has posted less than four assists.

[Hemingway]

Problem with tracking assists is you get a huge variation depending on the scorer..Rondo would have had 7 or 8 assists on the road tonight instead of 11 at home..Not only that but assists are so dependent on the shooter. For example Pierce got a couple of assists on passes to wide open KG (who is nearly at the 3 point line). Most other bigs miss those shots. So alot of assists can just be a function of shooting percentage not really great passing..

True but the best passers in the game tend to be among the lead leads in assists. All stats are relative when you think about it. If you shot at a higher percent if you have teammates who give you a good pass and don't waste the clock and then force you to take bad shots. You will rebound more if you don't have a great rebounder on your team, Rondo get a ton for a guard but half those he swoops in for another celtic would have gotten.

All stats are relative and for that reason they can only be used as general indicators. When you get really into the game you have to depend on your assessment of watching someone play not the stats to know how good a player he is.

[GuyClinch]

True but the best passers in the game tend to be among the lead leads in assists. All stats are relative when you think about it. If you shot at a higher percent if you have teammates who give you a good pass and don't waste the clock and then force you to take bad shots. You will rebound more if you don't have a great rebounder on your team, Rondo get a ton for a guard but half those he swoops in for another celtic would have gotten.

Of course. But the problem is - saying OMG all we need is more assists (and hence more ball movement) misses the fact that on the nights we are losing those assists could be down because we are shooting poorly. No other stat is really so dependent on the performance as others as assists (as well as the scorer)..

So say we lose - you might pin it on lack of ball movement or perhaps lack of Rondo 'control' but it could be related to poor shooting.. I'd say the Cs are pretty unselfish and ball movement tends to be very good night in and night out. The shooting though - not so much.

Now you might be onto something with the 3pt% - in games where Wallace, House and Allen are off we seem to lose (thats just an observation) but all three of those guys are very reliant on 3s for their offense.

My worry is more playoff related. I still feel teams can scheme against us much better then they do in regular season games because you can make Rondo a scorer (out of the flow) of the game. That's really the key to beating the Celtics - over play the passing lanes and goading Rondo into shooting..

I remember those great Dallas teams won with some of the fewest assist numbers in the league. Assists aren't always a strength. They can be a sign that your teams lacks sufficent one on one ability. Outside of Pierce the C's really lack in that regard. Its going to be interesting to see how it plays out.

Pete

[ryaningf]

True, but along the above lines I also thought it was interesting that when Rondo was the one dominating the assists, while we would generally be successful, we are shooting real poorly from long range. I don't know if that could simply result from us letting Rondo take more control when our shooters are not hot....and I also thought it was interesting that despite the other indications, we are undefeated this season, 13-0, when Ray has posted less than four assists.

Again, I think it points to the overall goodness of ball movement; i.e., if there's good ball movement, we can win games whether or not we're hitting threes, or jumpers, since good ball movement results in a greater percentage of inside shots.

As an aside, I tend to think that three point success often leads to bad ball movement down the line...since everyone's hitting, the 'extra' pass often goes unmade, while the first 3 that shows often gets shot.

As for Ray's assists as inverse indicators of success, I think the conclusion is easy--good ball movement makes Ray a finisher; bad ball movement means (among other things) that the ball's sticking in Ray and Paul's hands. They get their assists, but the team offensive efficiency suffers.

[threrf23]

But the problem is - saying OMG all we need is more assists (and hence more ball movement) misses the fact that on the nights we are losing those assists could be down because we are shooting poorly. No other stat is really so dependent on the performance as others as assists (as well as the scorer)..

True for the most part but the relationship between passing and shooting is co-dependent to a decent extent. And this also helps to begin to explain why not all assists are equal. Which is why I don't think its a waste to try and figure out or at least think about whose assists are correlating the most with performance, and why, and what not.