2010 FA, 2011 FA, or something else...

[Danimals]

I need help to understand a few things.

2010 FA: If we don't get any of the 1st tier (Lebron, Wade), 2nd tier (Bosh, Amare, Johnson, Boozer), or 3rd tier (Gay, Outlaw, ???) is there anyone worth signing? (my tiers are completley arbitrary) I've heard Josh Childress' name thrown out there. Why do we need to sign someone in 2010 FA? Why not use our expirings to take on 2011 expirings plus additional assets? Just draft a couple of guys and continue to develop players?

2011FA: The number one reason I would like to defer to 2011 is the chance at Melo. I just think he would be the best possible SF to put next to Love/Jefferson. That's right I like him even better than Lebron. Melo plays inside, outside, fast-break, half-court, with the ball, off the ball, and last year in the playoffs he showed he can be a hell of a defender. He has a perfect game for the playoffs. These are my opinions. Yours?

Something Else: Is there any reason to keep cap space to resign/extend our young players? If we spend all this capspace, do we run the risk of not being able to keep Love, Flynn, or someone we draft this year? I wonder this because I just don't see us getting very competetive very fast, unless we get lucky in the draft or free agency. I want to have our guys in their prime, not just on their rookie contracts.

Anyone care to agree/disagree or maybe try to convince me one way or the other?

[Basti]

I need help to understand a few things.

2010 FA: If we don't get any of the 1st tier (Lebron, Wade), 2nd tier (Bosh, Amare, Johnson, Boozer), or 3rd tier (Gay, Outlaw, ???) is there anyone worth signing? (my tiers are completley arbitrary) I've heard Josh Childress' name thrown out there. Why do we need to sign someone in 2010 FA? Why not use our expirings to take on 2011 expirings plus additional assets? Just draft a couple of guys and continue to develop players?

2011FA: The number one reason I would like to defer to 2011 is the chance at Melo. I just think he would be the best possible SF to put next to Love/Jefferson. That's right I like him even better than Lebron. Melo plays inside, outside, fast-break, half-court, with the ball, off the ball, and last year in the playoffs he showed he can be a hell of a defender. He has a perfect game for the playoffs. These are my opinions. Yours?

Something Else: Is there any reason to keep cap space to resign/extend our young players? If we spend all this capspace, do we run the risk of not being able to keep Love, Flynn, or someone we draft this year? I wonder this because I just don't see us getting very competetive very fast, unless we get lucky in the draft or free agency. I want to have our guys in their prime, not just on their rookie contracts.

Anyone care to agree/disagree or maybe try to convince me one way or the other?

as far as your 1st point, well let's wait and see. I wouldn't mind waiting for a year at all before we overpay for another 4th option.

and secondly, once you've used your cap space to sign Free Agents "off other teams" you still can sign "your own" FAs as long as you have their bird rights. Glen Taylor has stated multiple times he'd go over the lux if it meant we are successful (read: Conference Finals at least) so I'm not worried about not being able to keep our players as long as they'll turn into what we hope they will.

[slinky]

Its a fine line, I dont want to just spend money cause we have it, but I also dont want to fall into the trap of continually trading for next year. Especially putting all our chips into one basket and waiting for 'Melo in 2011. At this point there is no reason for him to consider us.

Basti is correct about bird rights, and Taylor's willingness to pay above the lux, but IF we want take advantage of that than we need to spend what we can to get to the cap. Otherwise we will just be resigning our own players with our raw cap space. And then we would only have the MLE left. So as I said there is a fine line between saving all of our cap space and spending over the next few years.

[moss_is_1]

If we can't get wade or lebron then we should try to sign Rudy Gay, but not overpay for anyone.

[Basti]

Basti is correct about bird rights, and Taylor's willingness to pay above the lux, but IF we want take advantage of that than we need to spend what we can to get to the cap. Otherwise we will just be resigning our own players with our raw cap space. And then we would only have the MLE left. So as I said there is a fine line between saving all of our cap space and spending over the next few years.

correct. I forgot to add that by 2011 we have to spend our cap space because by then it should be the last season our important young guys are on rookie contracts.

[Danimals]

Thanks for the info guys. That gives me a much better understanding of resigning our own players. So as it looks now, if I'm correct, after 2011 we will pretty much need to spend our cap space. Is that why POR signed Miller? So they could turn that space into an actual asset?

I really don't think we will sign Lebron, Wade, Bosh, Johnson, or Amare. This is not because we are too small of a market or our weather, but because these guys are at the point in their career that winning will be the most important. That leaves us with Rudy Gay. He looks to be either a boom or bust signing. Physically/athletically he has the gifts to be a top 3 SF in the league. Thats the boom. If he does not develop, he becomes an overpriced second fiddle on a team full of sidekicks. I want him on our team, but I do not want to overpay.

Another point I forgot in my earlier post was: Another reason I might want to wait for 2011, is because I think we can't lose in this draft. We have so many assets and so many of the prospects may be perfect for us. If we come away with any two of Wall, Favors, Turner, Johnson, Henry, or Aldrich and they are both busts, I will know Joe Smith cursed us forever.

[Esohny]

I've been pretty clear that I want Gay(unless we somehow make a highly unlikely Joe Johnson signing) on the team next year along with one of the top wings in the draft.

I'd also prefer not to overpay for Gay (I'd say he's worth about 10 million comparing him to other players like him), but I'd rather overpay a bit for Gay than trade for someone like Deng, who is not only highly overpaid for his production, but is a health risk, and has "actual age" questions. Gay is already a go-to guy on offense, is improving on defense, rebounds, and still has a bunch of upside at age 23.

[slinky]

Yeah, Rudy Gay doesn't do a ton for me but I would much prefer him to Deng because the only asset Rudy would costs us is cap space. Deng might actually cost us cap space plus an asset.

[moss_is_1]

Gay is improving this season, he's shown he'll play defense, rebound, and has been driving to the basket. He has a good outside shot, and he has size and athleticism that we don't have. If we could sign him and then be getting Wall/Turner/Aldrich with the first pick and Henry/Johnson/Alibi with the second pick we would be going in the right direction.

[shrink]

Danimals, one other thing to consider is the value being under the cap gives in trade.

We always talk about teams needing to match salaries, but that's only required of teams over the salary cap. For instance, this summer we could trade a $4 mil Gomes for an $11 mil Curry, and create a $7 mil TPE. How much would a team like NYK (or any team) be willing to pay to erase $7 mil from their payroll. Same goes for team over the lux, or simply a team who wishes to change direction and rebuild, by trading their expensive star. The cap space doesn't have to be used on a free agent to be a valuable valuable commodity.