Interesting SOS fact...Den/UT

erudite23 · Post #1 » by **erudite23** » Mon Dec 14, 2009 10:02 pm

I certainly wouldn't have thought this from a casual onlooker perspective, but Utah's current slate of games has come against the toughest schedule in the league to this point. Our SOS is .550 right now, highest in the league. Who is the worst? Denver at a mere .423. Link:

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerr ... rder/false

Provocative stuff. Maybe we do have a chance at winning the division.

....nah

stevebozell · Post #2 » by **stevebozell** » Mon Dec 14, 2009 10:16 pm

Does that take into account home versus road games, or purely the opponents winning percentage?

As a Jazz fan Im not at all surprised we have been winning at home, against anybody. Its what we do on the road that matters, regardless of their winning percentage.

Post #3 » by **DelaneyRudd** » Mon Dec 14, 2009 10:22 pm

Keep in mind that the winning percentage is influenced by the Jazz losing games and the Nuggets winning games. There isn't a large enough pool of games for the difference in opponents percentage to not be influenced by the teams you are comparing.

Neon Black · Post #4 » by **Neon Black** » Mon Dec 14, 2009 11:06 pm

Jazz will win the division.

J Smitty · Post #5 » by **J Smitty** » Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:43 am

The problem with relying on SOS is that it leaves out a lot of variables. Doesn't take into account road games, or b2bs and such. Just look at the Lakers for instance. They've supposedly had the 10th hardest schedule so far, based on who they've played....but they have also had 17 home games compared to 5 road games, and only two b2bs. I hardly consider that cakewalk the 10th hardest schedule in the league.

At the same time...while the Nuggets have played more easy opponents, you really can't say "well they've just been beating up on crappy teams, and haven't played/beaten anyone good." On the contrary, most of Denver's losses so far have come against those easier opponents(Wolves, Clippers, Bobcats, Pistons), while they've beaten all the harder ones(Lakers, Blazers, Suns, Jazz, Spurs, Thunder). So to say their record is inflated because of who they've played really isn't all that accurate.

carrottop12 · Post #6 » by **carrottop12** » Tue Dec 15, 2009 7:27 am

The Jazz have had a tough schedule, and mixed with injuries it's not surprising that their record isn't better.

The shocking thing though is when you see that they have lost at home to Minny, Sacto, Houston and OKC.

If the Jazz had won those games they'd be 18-6 and sole possesion of 2nd place in the conference. :nonono:

erudite23 · Post #7 » by **erudite23** » Tue Dec 15, 2009 7:37 pm

J Smitty wrote:The problem with relying on SOS is that it leaves out a lot of variables. Doesn't take into account road games, or b2bs and such. Just look at the Lakers for instance. They've supposedly had the 10th hardest schedule so far, based on who they've played....but they have also had 17 home games compared to 5 road games, and only two b2bs. I hardly consider that cakewalk the 10th hardest schedule in the league.

At the same time...while the Nuggets have played more easy opponents, you really can't say "well they've just been beating up on crappy teams, and haven't played/beaten anyone good." On the contrary, most of Denver's losses so far have come against those easier opponents(Wolves, Clippers, Bobcats, Pistons), while they've beaten all the harder ones(Lakers, Blazers, Suns, Jazz, Spurs, Thunder). So to say their record is inflated because of who they've played really isn't all that accurate.

Wasn't trying to imply anything of the sort. In fact, Denver has had similar issues as the Jazz, having played much worse against bad teams than against good teams. The Jazz have played @Bos, @Cle, @SA, @Den, vsLAL, @LAL, vsOrl, vsPor, vsSA, @Dal and have acquitted themselves very well in every game but the Boston game, where they sort of hit rock bottom on the season, and while they had 4th quarter collapses @Den and @LAL, they outplayed the opposition up to that point. Meanwhile, they have had embarrassing losses/collapses at home vs Minny, Sacto, Houston and OKC and were beaten down @Minny.

Anyhow, not saying this or that about UT>Den, just that its an interesting wrinkle in the overall scheme of things. Not only has Den had the easiest schedule in the league, its by a very wide margin, as their .423 is a full 30bps lower than the next lowest of .453. Meanwhile, the Jazz' SOS of .550 was only a mere 7bps higher than the next highest. In comparing the two records, keep in mind that the Jazz' mark of 14-9 is not far off from Denver's 18-6 record, meaning that excepting games in which the team in question effected the records of their opponents would not significantly change the difference between the two teams SOS.

While I find it extremely interesting, I'm definitely not ready to say that the Jazz are in any way a threat to win the division, let alone be a serious player in the WC, given the fact that we just punted a game at home to one of the worst teams in the league. This team is fatally flawed and has no future as presently constituted. Just thought it was interesting is all.