Roy Halladay Trade Thread (Done Deal)

[Schad]

1.101, .961, .948, .931, .924, .904, .878, .756

James Loney brings that list way down, but those are elite level OPS's outside of him. The defensive ability of those players vary but ultimately their offense is what carries them. If Wallace puts up a .875-.900 OPS, then sure I would be fine with him at 1B even if his defense is average or slightly better.
Will he be that type of 1B though? Time will tell. His 2009 season as a whole was a bit disappointing. Of course he will be 23 for almost all of the 2010 season so there is time for his stock to rise again. I just feel a bit uneasy about the majority of his value being on his bat, because if he doesn't hit, he's really not good at anything else.

I don't think that his season was disappointing in the slightest; he moved up prospect lists as the year progressed (from 40th in BA's pre-season rankings to the low-20s mid-season), and a .293/.367/.455 line, most of that in AAA in his first full year as a pro, is pretty impressive. Sickels rated him as an A- prospect entering the year, and I'm pretty confident that he'll get the same rating this time around as well.

Can he reach an OPS in the high-.800s/low-.900s? I think so...given his ability to hit for average, and his patience at the plate, it'll likely take something like .190-.200 iso power number to get him to the low end of your range, and that's not an extreme number...hell, Robinson Cano put that up last year (both home and away, so it's not just New Yankee).

[-MetA4-]

I would be curious to see how his fb and ld rates differed between st louis and oakland?

I imagine there was a marked improvement.

STL (AAA): 53.1% GB, 28.2% FB, 18.6% LD
OAK (AAA): 49.4% GB, 34.5% FB, 16.1% LD

So yeah, he was definitely hitting less balls on the ground and more in the air, which probably explains the big difference in his SLG%.

[LBJSeizedMyID]

Sometimes we pay attention to much to fantasy stats. From the videos I saw, he does look like he has a nice swing, but do notice he likes to sit back on pitches, which might hurt his power game. If he can stop sitting on his back leg when swinging, and use his hips a bit more, he will be a beast. I trust that the Jays will develop that part of his game.

[Michael Bradley]

1.101, .961, .948, .931, .924, .904, .878, .756

James Loney brings that list way down, but those are elite level OPS's outside of him. The defensive ability of those players vary but ultimately their offense is what carries them. If Wallace puts up a .875-.900 OPS, then sure I would be fine with him at 1B even if his defense is average or slightly better.
Will he be that type of 1B though? Time will tell. His 2009 season as a whole was a bit disappointing. Of course he will be 23 for almost all of the 2010 season so there is time for his stock to rise again. I just feel a bit uneasy about the majority of his value being on his bat, because if he doesn't hit, he's really not good at anything else.

I don't think that his season was disappointing in the slightest; he moved up prospect lists as the year progressed (from 40th in BA's pre-season rankings to the low-20s mid-season), and a .293/.367/.455 line, most of that in AAA in his first full year as a pro, is pretty impressive. Sickels rated him as an A- prospect entering the year, and I'm pretty confident that he'll get the same rating this time around as well.

Can he reach an OPS in the high-.800s/low-.900s? I think so...given his ability to hit for average, and his patience at the plate, it'll likely take something like .190-.200 iso power number to get him to the low end of your range, and that's not an extreme number...hell, Robinson Cano put that up last year (both home and away, so it's not just New Yankee).

I would say disappointing more for the type of prospect he is, not for a 22-year old in his 1st full pro season who leaped to AAA. His BB/K numbers were uninspiring (46/116) and only after being traded to Oakland did he start to finally display 1B level power (before that his ISO was in the .130 range).

What might have hurt Wallace a bit was jumping from AA to AAA. He was putting up a fairly decent season in AA (.281/.403/.438) before being promoted to AAA where his ISO, BB/K, etc, dropped. Had he stayed in AA a bit longer his overall season may have been better. But as I said before, Wallace's numbers after being traded to Oakland were very encouraging, so it's entirely possible he carries that over to 2010 and has the break out year the Jays brass likely expect. He is certainly young enough to make a leap in the next year or two.

Again my concern is whether he will hit enough to be at least a top level 1B. I mean, if you look at the OPS of 1B in 2009, the 14th best 1B was .893 (Carlos Pena). 14th! Everyone ahead of Pena was .900 or better. The lowest HR total in the top 15 was Helton (15), but after him the lowest was 25. This is a premium offensive position. Moving Lind to 1B (who we already know can put up a .900+ OPS) and plugging Taylor in the outfield might have been safer and possibly came with more upside.

Regardless, we will only know how this unfolds over the next few years. Hopefully Wallace lives up to the hype. At this point, either scenario (boom or bust) wouldn't surprise me. That goes for Michael Taylor as well.

[rtcaino]

BTW Jermaine Dye is a horrible comparison for anyone who is trying to "legitimalize" Michael Taylor. Despite the HR hitting, Dye has actually had NEGATIVE WAR in 3 seasons, with his highest WAR being only a 3.2 (2006).

Dye has had negative defensive value in every single one of his seasons except for 2004. By negative I mean absolutely horrendous, his last 4 seasons:

I think that any comparison between Taylor and Dye would primarily be with regards to offensive capabilities. Taylor is reputed to be superior defensively.

[rtcaino]

His 2009 season as a whole was a bit disappointing. Of course he will be 23 for almost all of the 2010 season so there is time for his stock to rise again. I just feel a bit uneasy about the majority of his value being on his bat, because if he doesn't hit, he's really not good at anything else.

I don't think that his season was disappointing in the slightest; he moved up prospect lists as the year progressed (from 40th in BA's pre-season rankings to the low-20s mid-season), and a .293/.367/.455 line, most of that in AAA in his first full year as a pro, is pretty impressive. Sickels rated him as an A- prospect entering the year, and I'm pretty confident that he'll get the same rating this time around as well.

I would say disappointing more for the type of prospect he is, not for a 22-year old in his 1st full pro season who leaped to AAA. His BB/K numbers were uninspiring (46/116) and only after being traded to Oakland did he start to finally display 1B level power (before that his ISO was in the .130 range).

What might have hurt Wallace a bit was jumping from AA to AAA. He was putting up a fairly decent season in AA (.281/.403/.438) before being promoted to AAA where his ISO, BB/K, etc, dropped. Had he stayed in AA a bit longer his overall season may have been better. But as I said before, Wallace's numbers after being traded to Oakland were very encouraging, so it's entirely possible he carries that over to 2010 and has the break out year the Jays brass likely expect. He is certainly young enough to make a leap in the next year or two.

Again my concern is whether he will hit enough to be at least a top level 1B. I mean, if you look at the OPS of 1B in 2009, the 14th best 1B was .893 (Carlos Pena). 14th! Everyone ahead of Pena was .900 or better. The lowest HR total in the top 15 was Helton (15), but after him the lowest was 25. This is a premium offensive position. Moving Lind to 1B (who we already know can put up a .900+ OPS) and plugging Taylor in the outfield might have been safer and possibly came with more upside.

BFT

Bolded for truth.

There is no way that his season was disappointing. As was pointed out, it was high first full year pro! And he performed well in the high minors! He went from AA to AAA in his first full year pro, and his stats dropped? Obviously!

The people that ranked him as the 21st best prospect understood that he will likely end up at 1b. Everyone is cognizant that Wallace will have to hit a 900+ ops to be valuable at 1b. AA realizes the level of production required from that position. The Blue Jays think it is a good bet that each of Lind, Snider and Wallace can perform at that level.

[rtcaino]

The problem is finding minor league batted ball rates for players who have been in the majors for years. Maybe they are out there somewhere, but I dont know of any services that provide these.

My assumption is that batted ball rates are fairly consistent, which is what worries me. The likelihood of a drastic shift occuring isn't overly high IMO, but again that is just a guess. Using players who DO have measured minor league stats (ie: very young "star" players):

Evan Longoria (27 HRs, 33 HRs):
Minors: 41% GB, 40.7% FB, 18.3% LD
Majors: 38.9% GB, 41.7% FB, 19.4% LD

Ryan Braun (34 HRs, 37 HRs, 32 HRs):
Minors: 42.7% GB, 41.5% FB, 15.5% LD
Majors: 41.7% GB, 40.4% FB, 17.8% LD

Adam Lind (35 HRs):
Minors: 43% GB, 39% FB, 17.8% LD
Majors: 43% GB, 36.8% FB, 20.2% LD (*I'm using just 2009 stats here, because that was his "breakout" year)

This analysis isn't sensitive to possible improvement over the course of one's minor league career. Especially when adjusting to a level. Perhaps successful hitters have already made many adjustments and developments before making it to the pros. However, they may not have displayed those successful tendencies during their entire minor league career, or during their first exposure to AA or AAA.

[Schad]

Johnson had a freakishly good season, though. Some other examples of recent players in their first spin in AAA:

- Justin Morneau, 22, 4.5 years pro: .268/.344/.498, .843.

- Adrian Gonzalez, 22, 4.5 years pro: .304/.364/.457, .821. He actually played ~40 games the year prior (very badly), but I went with his first long stint.

- Kendry Morales, 23, 1.5 years pro: .320/.359/.520, .879.

- Billy Butler, 21, 3.5 years pro: .291/.412/.542, .954.

- Ryan Garko, 24, 1.5 years pro: .303/.384/.498, .882.


All with good numbers, but only Butler's numbers stand out as being head-and-shoulders above the competition. Morales and Garko are the only two to reach that level as early in the careers, Butler the only one to reach it at a younger age. Morales, Gonzalez and Morneau have all produced seasons in the bigs that top their first trip through AAA, and by considerable margins; drafted as a senior, Garko was somewhat long in the tooth by the time he reached Buffalo (and seems to have topped out), and Butler set the bar incredibly high but could break it in time. All of them either were older or had more pro experience than Wallace at the time.

Most players -- especially power hitters -- reach AAA without having fully refined their games, especially in the power department. If Wallace had flamed out it would be cause for concern, but an OPS around .820 (.870 after the initial trade) isn't enough to set off alarm bells over.

[Michael Bradley]

There is no way that his season was disappointing. As was pointed out, it was high first full year pro! And he performed well in the high minors! He went from AA to AAA in his first full year pro, and his stats dropped? Obviously!

The people that ranked him as the 21st best prospect understood that he will likely end up at 1b. Everyone is cognizant that Wallace will have to hit a 900+ ops to be valuable at 1b. AA realizes the level of production required from that position. The Blue Jays think it is a good bet that each of Lind, Snider and Wallace can perform at that level.

Reposting this as I deleted it accidentally when I went to edit something in.

You make it sound like upping performance from AA to AAA is some sort of impossibility. Most consider the jump from A+ to AA the most difficult, not AA to AAA. Both Lind and Snider upped their performance significantly in AAA (Lind at age 22 and Snider at age 20/21).

Yes it was Wallace's first full pro season, and yes he was clearly not ready for AAA yet, but his sizable dip in BB/K and his groundball rates which Metafour brought up (that apparently have followed him well before 2009) are definitely worth noting. Can those things be improved upon? ABSOLUTELY. However, he was never touted for his power (usually a prerequisite for 1B), moreso for his pure hitting ability. But even if you compare Wallace to someone like Nick Johnson (a pure hitter with remarkable plate discipline and questionable power) it is night and day. Johnson had 123 walks and hit .345 with a 1.073 OPS in AA at age 20. These 1B types have to show some level of performance in the minors, and judging Wallace solely on what he has done so far, it comes off as disappointing. Not bad, just not great.

Again, YET. Like I said before he improved when he went to Oakland and it is highly possible that carries over to 2010 (he'll be in the PCL so that will help his numbers as well). The Jays brass has liked him since 2005 so I'm sure they project great things from him. All I am saying is it remains to be seen. If his only plus trait his hitting, let's wait until he starts hitting before we form any type of conclusion for him. He is not a finished product offensively yet (based on his ratios).

I hope AA is right on this one.

[rtcaino]

There is no way that his season was disappointing. As was pointed out, it was high first full year pro! And he performed well in the high minors! He went from AA to AAA in his first full year pro, and his stats dropped? Obviously!

The people that ranked him as the 21st best prospect understood that he will likely end up at 1b. Everyone is cognizant that Wallace will have to hit a 900+ ops to be valuable at 1b. AA realizes the level of production required from that position. The Blue Jays think it is a good bet that each of Lind, Snider and Wallace can perform at that level.

You make it sound like upping performance from AA to AAA is some sort of impossibility. Most consider the jump from A+ to AA the most difficult, not AA to AAA. Both Lind and Snider upped their performance significantly in AAA (Lind at age 22 and Snider at age 20/21).

Yes it was Wallace's first full pro season, and yes he was clearly not ready for AAA yet, but his sizable dip in BB/K and his groundball rates which Metafour brought up (that apparently have followed him well before 2009) are definitely worth noting. Can those things be improved upon? ABSOLUTELY. However, he was never touted for his power (usually a prerequisite for 1B), moreso for his pure hitting ability. But even if you compare Wallace to someone like Nick Johnson (a pure hitter with remarkable plate discipline and questionable power) it is night and day. Johnson had 123 walks and hit .345 with a 1.073 OPS in AA at age 20. These 1B types have to show some level of performance in the minors, and judging Wallace solely on what he has done so far, it comes off as disappointing. Not bad, just not great.

Again, YET. Like I said before he improved when he went to Oakland and it is highly possible that carries over to 2010 (he'll be in the PCL so that will help his numbers as well). The Jays brass has liked him since 2005 so I'm sure they project great things from him. All I am saying is it remains to be seen. If his only plus trait his hitting, let's wait until he starts hitting before we form any type of conclusion for him. He is not a finished product offensively yet (based on his ratios).

I hope AA is right on this one.

Johnson reached AA in his 4th year pro, which was his age 20 season. He had full seasons at A and A+, and 1125 professional PA's when he reached AA.

Wallace was in his 1st year pro, which was his age 21 season. He had only 177 professional PA's under his belt before his first AA exposure.

I'm aware that not all prospects have an evident adjustment process when advancing a level. But I was of the understanding that most prospects do . I could be mistaken.

Also, you are comparing the entire AA year versus the entire AAA year. I still feel this wouldn't be sensitive to initial struggles at a level and subsequent improvements.

For example, Nick Johnson has 581 PA's at AA. His stats for that year do not reveal whether he started off the year with good performance or whether he struggled initially.
To compare, Wallace had 57 PA's at AA in his first year pro and 154 in his first full year. With 367 more PA's at that level, what would his performance at that level have looked like?

[jrsmith]

are any of the prospects we got expected to play next season?

[Michael Bradley]

I think players in general, whether they be 1B or otherwise, develop differently. Some players put up great numbers right off the bat, some struggle a few years before making the adjustments, and so on. The two things I generally look at with position players is BB/K and ISO (in addition to age). If they can control the strike zone and show power then there is a pretty good chance they will be able to take those traits with them as they move along, even if their stats are not up to par early on. With certain players (like Rios for example) they have the tools to eventually harness certain skills (i.e. power) as they get older so their early pro performance is less of a concern. I brought up Johnson because he was a 1B lacking power, but he was so good at everything else offensively, especially at such a young age, that is made up for it. I used age because college players generally fly through the low minors (A- and A+) since they are facing 18, 19, and 20 year olds, so Wallace jumping to AA so soon is not unheard of.

The groundball stuff that Metafour brought up as it relates to Wallace is worrisome, especially if that trait has carried over since his college days. It's something he can alter with a good hitting coach though so we'll see what happens. His BB/K was unspectacular and his ISO outside of his time with Oakland was very low for a 1B. However, as TJ alluded to with early struggles/adjustments, Wallace’s stint in AAA as a member of the A’s was encouraging and quite an improvement over his AAA stint with the Cards, and it certainly could be a case of adjusting to the level and a harbinger of things to come.

With that said, I never said Wallace will stop improving. In fact I haven't drawn a single conclusion of how he will turn out. All-star, bust, solid....neither outcome would surprise me. Prospects are unpredictable at times. Just saying at this point, he is not a better bat than Taylor, and certainly doesn’t bring any other traits with him (defense, speed, etc) that can off-set any potential drawbacks he may have with his bat. If he was a 3B, I'd consider his 2009 to be quite good, actually.

But like I said before, he does have breakout potential in 2010. If he puts up a .900-1.000 OPS in the PCL next year, trust me, I would not be surprised in the least.

[Harry Palmer]

Anyone else enter the forum, see the 'Orioles enter bidding war for Holliday.' ticker headline, and feel their inner organs clench for a half second?

No?

Yeah, me neither.

[breignchile]

I don't understand this trade at all. They trade the best pitcher in baseball for three prospects and give the Phillies $6m. That doesn't seem like a very good deal. But I don't know anything about the prospects they acquired.

Hopefully they will able to trade Wells... imagine that. That is pretty much impossible without eating at least half of his contract.

At least we now know what the kind of team the Jays will be for the next few years. I was pretty excited about the fantastic start the Jays had, only to see them poop on themselves for the rest of the year.

The only redeeming thing about this trade is that Halladay didn't end up on the Yankees or Red Sox, that would have been really painful.

[OldNo7]

I don't understand this trade at all. They trade the best pitcher in baseball for three prospects and give the Phillies $6m. That doesn't seem like a very good deal. But I don't know anything about the prospects they acquired.

Then why post? You clearly have not been following the Jays, or the situation.

[Modern_epic]

I don't understand the cost of building nuclear power plants. It seems exorbitant. I mean, just back in '93 one of them cost $14.5 billion to build! Now they want $26 billion to build another one? That's a lot of money, and it doesn't even solve all of our energy issues! That doesn't seem like a very good plant. But I don't know anything about nuclear physics.

Hopefully they'll be able to solve our energy issues through cold fusion.

edit: this isn't going to make a lot of sense to people who just look at this page.

[Rapcity_11]

LOL ^ nice