lurkingobeiscity wrote:schneiderjazz wrote:erudite23 wrote:Lopez is a great prospect, but I question his ability to make it to elite status as a player. He may already be close to maxed out as is. He will be no more than a borderline 10ish rebound guy, which means you'll HAVE to pair him with a great rebounding 4 (or be forced to make it up with your backcourt) to avoid getting hammered on the boards. Millsap may or may not be that guy.
I love the guy, and I would seriously consider trading this NYK pick in a deal for him, but let's not get too carried away in man love for him. Right now Boozer is a better player than he is. While he does block shots, he is in no way a "good" defender atm. His shooting is unimpressive for a center. No, that's understating it. His shooting is HORRIBLE for a center right now. Show me another 5 in the league that plays primarily in the post and shoots only 48%. I don't think there is one. He has some serious question marks.
Still, he's very good and might be great. But I would take a healthy Greg Oden over him 100 times out of 100, as well as Bynum and maybe even Marc Gasol.
At this point, I'm favoring the idea of re-signing Boozer, getting Aldrich or Davis to pair him with in the frontcourt, and trading away Millsap and Memo. Boozer is just too damn good, and his defense has been markedly better this year. I have no desire to see him go.
First of all, let me say that I'm not a big fan of this trade. IMO we're giving up a little too much (Boozer and the Knicks pick for Lopez). But I have to disagree that Lopez shooting is horrible. He's basically their 1st option on offense. He has very little room to work, since the Nets are the worst shooting team in the league. Gasol, Bynum and Oden all have good 3 point shooters and guys who can create easy shots for them. Lopez, not so much. And also 26 games is a quite small sample.
I'd also add that while Lopez's FG% may be a tad low right now, his TS% is higher than Bogut, for example. His assisted FG% is at 52% (compared to Bynum's 66% or Boozer's 76%) and he hasn't played exclusively from the post like erudite implied. He has the green light to shoot 18-20 footers as well, since defenses pack the middle so aggressively against the Nets, and his FT% of 85% accurately portrays him as not only a good shooter, but an improving one as well.
Um, no.
List of things to do:
1. Look up the difference between "exclusively" and "primarily"
2. Go to NBA.com/hotspots
3. Compare Lopez to true "elite" post players
4. Realize you are wrong
5. Go home and rethink your life
The reason for Lopez' low shooting percentage has nothing to do with NJ's lack of perimeter shooting. That would limit the number of opportunities for him, not necessarily the efficiency of converting those opportunities. For example, the Jazz had been a horrible shooting outside team without their two best wing shooters in the lineup (though it has improved substantially over the last two+ weeks) and that in no way inhibited Boozer's ability to convert a high percentage of his offense. Similar things are true for Kaman in LA, Gasol in Memphis and others I am too lazy to look up right now.
No, the reason for his low %s is his mediocre conversion rate at the hoop for a guy that is supposed to be so skilled with the ball, but more importantly two things concerning his mid-range game: 1) his inability to make a 16-18 foot shot into a 12 or 13 foot shot by being physical and aggressive in the high post and 2) his inability to hit that 16, 17, or 18 foot shot with regularity.
Look at the breakdown in shot distribution for Brook:
At the hoop: 57% FGs Percentage of overall attempts: 63%
In between game: 41%FGs % of overall: 15%
Mid-range shots: 29% FGs % of overall: 22%
That 57% around the hoop is roughly in the middle of all starting big men. Average or so. But he's still getting a lot of his offense around the hoop, with about 2/3 of all his shots coming from that range. Again, if outside shooting was such a huge issue, his ability to get that shot would be severely inhibited, but that doesn't appear to be the case. His 63% ratio compares favorably across the league to elite big men scorers.
However, the fact that he only gets 15% of his shots "in between" is a very telling stat. For many big guys that are "skilled" and have "range" on their jumpers, that in between shot is usually a huge part of their offense. Not only do they shoot in the upper 40s, typically, but they usually get 20+% of their offense at that range. Look at Gasol and Duncan, two bigs who are known for their mid range shot and their high skill level, but who still have the length, muscle, athleticism and toughness to get to the hoop and finish:
Gasol:
At hoop: 62%/65%
In between: 49%/25%
Mid range: 41%/10%
Duncan:
At hoop: 63%/57%
In between: 49%/30%
Mid range: 42%/12%
As you can see, Lopez is taking too many long 2s and isn't turning them into in between shots by creating better post position and/or taking his man off the dribble to create a 12 foot shot in the lane. The difference between him and the other two big guys is not in shots at the hoop, where they are fairly comparable, but in long 2s versus in between shots. This is a typical symptom of a young guy trying to figure it out. His hot spot numbers last year did not show this problem, but that was likely as a result of being a much smaller part of the offense. He's significantly raised his usage this year, and as a result his efficiency has fallen way off. For any big man who is going to be a focal point of his team's offense, you simply cannot afford to have him shooting 48%. 50% is the absolute worst you can get away with, and if you really want to be an elite scoring big you need to be in the 53%+ range.
(As a sidenote, Tim Duncan has been a 50ish guy for most of his career, something that is overlooked in the conversation of All-Time Best PF. Malone regularly converted over 55% from the field and posted a massively better TS% than Tim throughout his career. As a scorer, Duncan is really only in the middle tier of big men all time, with a mediocre FG% and an altogether mediocre FT rate and FT%. His claim to GOAT status centers squarely on his defensive abilities and his intangibles)
If Brook wants to challenge the elite status he's going to have to continue to improve his stroke while being more determined in getting good shots. Good shooting is equal measures shot selection and shot-making. Until Brook proves that he can get and make good shots at a high volume and high efficiency, he's just a nice prospect who is a pretty good player. While it seems possible, and maybe even likely, that he will do that at some point, its still "potential" not reality. Like it or not.
And he is in every way a good defender.
You call him a prospect, and he may be only 21, but as of right now he's .3/.3 off of being 20/10 while being the help-side presence every team wants at center. The gap between where he is and elite is small and ever-shrinking.
20/10 does not make you an elite big man. Go ask anyone if Boozer is an elite big man. Go ask anyone if Bosh was an elite big man before this season. There's much more involved in that than 20 and 10, though that's a nice bar to clear, I admit.
Also, Brook is pretty close to his ceiling as a rebounder. He doesn't have the chops to be an Oden like force who posts an 18+ rebound rate. He is more in the Pau Gasol(low-end) to Yao (high end) range of 15 to 16ish RR, which is decent but nothing too impressive for a truly elite big guy.
Also, right now he is not a good defender. He plays "good" at times, but his inconsistencies and lack of aggression (just reference his foul rate, which is among the lowest in the league at his position) lead to him getting beat a lot. He has the ability to be a good defender, maybe even an excellent one, but right now his lack of experience prevents him from being that. Sorry.
EDIT: And there really is nothing the Jazz could offer that is worth Lopez.
And this is where you really lost it. Just because your team may not TRADE Lopez for anything the Jazz have does not mean we have nothing worth him. While I agree that a young big like him is worth a ton, you're crazy if you think that just having him means a damn thing. He's not as good a prospect as a young Yao was and look what that got Houston: zero playoff success 8 years in. There's a big difference between the hot and humid man love that a team's FO and their fans might have for promising young players and their actual worth. Those young players grow older, get fat contracts, get injured, play for bad teams, and their values "disappear". Just ask Chicago fans, Blazer fans in a year or two, Clipper fans...but more importantly, BOSTON fans. There were a ton of fans that were upset and very conflicted about the idea of sending all those young impressive prospects in a deal that would get them an overpaid, on the downside star who was a "loser" and a top 5 pick in a "loaded" draft for another soft jumpshooting big man who was also way overpaid and on the decline. Some were going crazy about the idea of jettisoning a young stud 20-10 guy for a guy who might be retired in 3 or 4 years, or giving up on a stud swingman like Gerald Green that could be the steal of his draft. Or trading away a 2nd round steal like Ryan Gomes.
Now? The trade is talked about like a no-brainer. Value is an interesting and ethereal thing sometimes. Just because you love this guy doesn't mean ****. His value is in his ability to contribute to a team that wins. Right now, that is zero. It might be higher in a different situation. It might be higher in his same situation down the road. Might. Hope that's keeping you warm through all those blowouts.
