Russell Westbrook and Point Guard Progression

[slick_watts]

I did some research for another site off the cuff, I wanted to see how many starting point guards shot less than 40% from the field and had an A:TO ratio less than 2:1. Russell Westbrook did this last year and is on pace to do it again this year, so seeing the kind of players who have done this before might give us an idea of what type of progression to expect. I'm copying and pasting my post. The criteria I used were <40% from the field, A/TO <= 2.0, MP >= 1200, MP/G >=26, position = G (my spreadsheet doesn't distinguish between PG and SG, I manually removed SG's from the list).

Here are all the point guards who shot < 40% from the field and had A:TO ratios worse than 2:1 in the last twenty years.

Allen Iverson (01-02, 03-04)
Jamal Crawford (06-07)
Gilbert Arenas (03-04)
Chauncey Billups (97-98)
Russell Westbrook (08-09, 09-10)
Jason Williams (99-00)
Bobby Jackson (97-98)

A couple notes on this. Interestingly, including Russell Westbrook, there are FOUR other point guards THIS YEAR who would also be on this list. Devin Harris, Rafer Alston, Gilbert Arenas, and (he isn't a starter but fits the minutes criteria) Kirk Hinrich.

Jason Williams was very close to doing it in 98-99 also, his A:TO ratio was barely over 2:1. On the other hand his 99-00 season barely qualifies and is barely under 2:1. Those were his first two seasons and after that while he remained a poor shooter, he was very good as a play maker and his career A:TO is approaching 3:1.

Jamal Crawford would have been on this list four times, but he managed to shoot a bit above 40% from the field in seasons where his A:TO was horrible.

Chauncey Billups is interesting. He did it his rookie season and the next two (which didn't qualify for minutes played due to injuries). Then in 00-01, his fourth year, he went to Minnesota and never had an A:TO ratio worse than 2:1 and only shot below 40% once. If there's any progression on this list we can hope Russ has it's this one but I think Chauncey's change of scenery is what helped him out unfortunately.

Bobby Jackson did it his rookie year, the only year he was ever an every day starter. His progression is also interesting, he never was a great play maker but his scoring efficiency shot way up in his early Sacramento years. When he hit 30, they came plummeting back down and he really dropped off the table.

Allen Iverson only had an A:TO ratio better than 2:1 in one season, 2005-2006. So basically whenever he shot below 40% from the field in a season, he makes this list. He was comfortably above 40% most years besides the two I pointed out. The story is the same for Gilbert Arenas.

I noticed researching this that there are several point guards that have still been successful shooting the ball poorly. Jason Kidd is an obvious example. Tim Hardaway had several good years in Miami with poor shooting percentages. Baron Davis' best years were still poor shooting years. Nick Van Exel, Jason Williams after his first couple seasons. It's not uncommon for a point guard to shoot poorly.

The point I think becomes that the only guard on this list who you really didn't know if he was a point guard that ended up alright was Chauncey Billups. Arenas, Iverson, and Crawford were all tweeners from almost day one, masquerading as point guards on their team(s). Jason Williams was always a point guard and had some nice seasons later on. All the guys I mentioned above were good playmakers from day one. Billups is really the only guy who was a tweener and struggled from a shooting and play making perspective from the start and managed to turn it around and make it work as a point guard for a winning team.

Any thoughts on this?

[BadWolf]

So best case Arenas/Billups, worst case Crawford?
Russ shows flashes of brilliance, but is not really playing with enough control, steadiness etc... It's frustrating sometimes.
And the team responds to his games. His bad games usually result in a team loss, his good in a win.
Might be wrong, but isn't he struggling against vetter teams? That might seem more problematic to me, but maybe it's just normal.
In other words, I don't have much to say other that he might be a star if he puts his good points together and improves on his weaknesses.

[wiff]

If I had to pick from the guys you listed.....

Allen Iverson (01-02, 03-04)
Jamal Crawford (06-07)
Gilbert Arenas (03-04)
Chauncey Billups (97-98)
Russell Westbrook (08-09, 09-10)
Jason Williams (99-00)
Bobby Jackson (97-98)

Lets hope for Billups.

Westbrook is improving, lets hope he keeps it up. Because other than Billups, I don't see many rings.

[Clangus]

My thoughts on Russ are mixed. I really want him to put it all together, because he is a good kid, a hard worker and has great natural physical gifts. But conversely, he pisses me off so much. He tries to me "the man" at the end of games, he cannot finish around the rim consistantly (Which is something all of those players can do relatively well I might add) and he often has silly turnover whichdisrupt our offensive flow.

About that list, I would like to know if any of those guards averaged as many rebounds as Russell? How many of them averaged more steals in thier poor years (Most of them I would think). And I think most importantly, Which of these guys statistically are better defenders?

That's where I see RW being different. He is more athletic and faster than Billups, he is a better defender (when he wants to be) than everyone on that list. And he is a better rebounder than everyone on that list. What does that mean? I dont know, but I suspect if we were to also count SG's into the stats Russell would be right in the mix, which makes me think perhaps he is playing more like a SG that a PG?

[slick_watts]

My interpretation of this data is that Russ is going to have to make a commitment toward becoming a good facilitator or he might not ever be an effective point guard for a winning team.

The reason being that the shooting numbers from the point guard position seem less important than the play making numbers. Looking at players such as Tim Hardaway, Jason Kidd, Baron Davis (playoff years), Nick Van Exel, and Jason Williams (Sacramento & Memphis years) -- all these guys have been winners on successful (varying degrees) teams while shooting the ball at low percentages. I'm finding it difficult to locate PG's that are not good play makers leading teams deep into the playoffs. Tony Parker was not an excellent play maker to begin his career, but he had an excellent team around him that played great defense. Allen Iverson was on a few of the best defensive teams the years the 76ers were successful, etc.

Russ seems like he wants to be a scorer. He has a scorer's mentality. I'm not sure if that is by design or not - I'm leaning towards not since Scott Brooks doesn't seem the type of coach that would encourage his PG to shoot excessively.

I would like to see James Harden start next to Russ for awhile. Chauncey Billups started to pull his career together in Minnesota where he played with Terrell Brandon and Anthony Peeler (a fairly good ball handler for a SG). Later, he joined the Pistons and played alongside another SG that can facilitate offense in Rip Hamilton. Russ suffers from playing with a lineup that doesn't feature many gifted ball handlers; at least ones that can consistently make the extra pass and have good court vision and passing instincts. James Harden seems to have those qualities, and I think he was drafted to eventually play that role next to Russ. When our perimeter shots are not falling this is a ball stopping offense because we only have one play maker who is still learning how to be one.

I still have high hopes for Russ even though by all indications he hasn't improved that much from last season. His assist percentage is up a bit, but everything else is about the same. Kevin Durant made some huge strides out of nowhere in his second season toward the All Star break; hopefully Russ can figure out some things too and start to be that play maker we need.

[Clangus]

I agree Slick. A starting Guard combo of Westbrook and Harden offensively makes sense. But Harden cannot defenend a chair at the moment, so perhaps we'll have to wait a ahile until he picks up that end.

[slick_watts]

James Harden's been much better than I expected defensively. He comes from a zone defensive system and it was assumed that he would be terrible, but I don't think he's been anything worse than average. He gets his hands on a lot of balls, gets a lot of steals.

He's got a problem with fouling, and gets taken off the dribble sometimes, but he looks pretty smart to me playing team defense and knowing where to be.

[BadWolf]

None of those players except Billups is close in terms of defense or rebounding.
Something else everyone ignores, Durant has the same amount of TOs as Westbrook, yet noone's worried about that?

[slick_watts]

None of those players except Billups is close in terms of defense or rebounding.
Something else everyone ignores, Durant has the same amount of TOs as Westbrook, yet noone's worried about that?

First of all, Russ is not a very good defender. He had that reputation coming out of UCLA because he's an energetic and explosive player with excellent lateral quickness, but he's still learning the finer points of team defense in the NBA. It's been pointed out many times that Russ has a lot (A LOT) of trouble defending the pick and roll. Russ always switches off his man and it creates mismatches and problems on the defensive end. He does not consistently fight through screens, and is uneven on closing out to shooters on the three point line. He's only averaging 1 steal PER36 so far this season as well, which is fairly low for a starting NBA point guard. He definitely has the tools to be a good defender but he's got to put things together in his head first, much as he has to do on the offensive end.

As far as rebounding; rebounding is not an important stat for a point guard. The difference of one or two rebounds between all these players is not significant over the course of the game. Further, Russ' rebounds (especially offensive) are down because of one good reason: when your PG goes for offensive rebounds he can't get back on defense to defend in transition. Russ still goes after rebounds fruitlessly on the offensive end that leads to transition baskets (this was a problem against Cleveland where they had 21 first half transition points), but not as much as last year.

Kevin Durant is a high usage wing player (32%+). His turnover rate is about the same as players such as LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Andre Iguodala, and others that are responsible for the bulk of their team's offense. This is par for the course for these guys. The issue with Russ isn't the fact that he turns the ball over so often, though that is problematic, but the fact that he turns the ball over too much relative to the amount of assists he gets. Assist to turnover ratio is a basic measurement that helps approximate how good a player is at play making. Steve Nash is turning over the ball more than Russ this season, does this mean that Russ is the better ball handler? Of course not, because Steve Nash gets 11+ assists every night. Nobody complains about Nash's turnovers. Put into the context of A:TO, Russ' turnovers are a problem because they represent a large fraction of his possessions and he doesn't create offense for others nearly enough to offset that amount (as Nash does).

[Clangus]

None of those players except Billups is close in terms of defense or rebounding.
Something else everyone ignores, Durant has the same amount of TOs as Westbrook, yet noone's worried about that?

So does Lebron, Wade, Nash etc etc. The thing is that all of those players are dominating offensively. KD falls into that catagory. If Westbrook dished out 11 assists a game or scored 30 a game, I wouldn't give a ****. But at 15 points on 39% shooting I care alot!

[slick_watts]

Russ isn't actually that far off from being at least adequate in the A:TO sense. He's still ninth in the league in assist per game, I believe. Even a modest improvement in either his turnover rate or assist rate would put him very close to a 2:1 A:TO ratio, which is where I was hoping he'd end up this year, best case scenario.

There's still plenty of time this year for him to turn a corner, again, much as Kevin Durant did last season. If he finishes the year in that 2:1 neighborhood, I'd consider the season a step in the right direction regardless of how he finishes the year shooting the basketball. If he stays around where he is, it's still an improvement, but it would be disappointingly small IMO.

[Durantist]

Lets put the statistics aside for now. Russell is not a Point Guard and never will be a point guard. True he is a threat on the boards and on one on one offensive play. As for point guard duties, NONE, ZERO. Russell cannot and seems to that he will not grasp the Point Guard position. Have you ever seen Russell throw a "Skip pass" during a half court set? How many outlet passes have you seen Russell throw? Its not his numbers, its the Fundamentals of a PG that he lacks! Whenever I see Russell set up the Offense it seems that he just wastes about 10 seconds off the shot clock. I am serious about that, watch him during the next game. He's only a threat when he takes his man one on one and due to his bigger size he pulls up for a jumper at around the free throw line. Lets be real, this team has what it takes to become a legitimate contender in the future, but if Russell is running the point this team will Never get out of the 1st round. But no worries, with this coaching staff and Presti running the table, I wouldn't be surprised that Russell will be dealt before the 2012 season kicks off.

BTW....Most of KD's turnovers come from him receiving the ball way too high and the shot clock is below 8-10 seconds. So obviously KD has to create his own offense, which is one of his weaknesses.

[KidDelicious]

This team has what it takes to become a legitimate contender in the future, but if Russell is running the point this team will Never get out of the 1st round. But no worries, with this coaching staff and Presti running the table, I wouldn't be surprised that Russell will be dealt before the 2012 season kicks off.

BTW....Most of KD's turnovers come from him receiving the ball way too high and the shot clock is below 8-10 seconds. So obviously KD has to create his own offense, which is one of his weaknesses.

two things. one were not the rockets. and 2 i think he will learn this trade and he will become a very good player but only a decent point guard. anyway thats all we will need. as KD gets older he will develop that ability to develip his own shot and become a ball dominant superstar. at which point russell wont need the ball in his hands as much and he wont have to be a great PG. and if not that. a harden/westbrook tandem can put the ball in hardens hands because hes a very controlled player and a decent passer.

russell will not be a chris paul or a chauncey billups. but there is no need for him to be dealt for a traditional PG. those are pretty much nonexistent nowadays anyway

[slick_watts]

Lets put the statistics aside for now. Russell is not a Point Guard and never will be a point guard. True he is a threat on the boards and on one on one offensive play. As for point guard duties, NONE, ZERO. Russell cannot and seems to that he will not grasp the Point Guard position. Have you ever seen Russell throw a "Skip pass" during a half court set? How many outlet passes have you seen Russell throw? Its not his numbers, its the Fundamentals of a PG that he lacks! Whenever I see Russell set up the Offense it seems that he just wastes about 10 seconds off the shot clock. I am serious about that, watch him during the next game. He's only a threat when he takes his man one on one and due to his bigger size he pulls up for a jumper at around the free throw line. Lets be real, this team has what it takes to become a legitimate contender in the future, but if Russell is running the point this team will Never get out of the 1st round. But no worries, with this coaching staff and Presti running the table, I wouldn't be surprised that Russell will be dealt before the 2012 season kicks off.

BTW....Most of KD's turnovers come from him receiving the ball way too high and the shot clock is below 8-10 seconds. So obviously KD has to create his own offense, which is one of his weaknesses.

I think Russ has definitely shown improvement, statistically (you can't just 'throw out' statistics..) he's a better play maker by a small margin. As I said, if he makes it to the 2:1 A:TO ratio that's a successful season and you build on it. If not, then you consider your options but Russ will probably be at PG next year at the very least no matter what.

He does lack some of the fundamentals of an NBA PG, but he's definitely learned. One example is how he runs the pick and roll and pick and pop. He's gotten much better at this, and when Nenad Krstic isn't playing like a 7' nothing, they usually get a few baskets a game on this kind of play. Small steps.

[dream_catcher_9]

I still feel like we will regret passing on Jason Kidd, oops I meant Ricky Rubio. I have no doubts he would have come over if we picked him. I think his mom actually preferred OKC because it was an up and coming team with very little pressure to perform now which Rubio and his family wanted.

God Rubio would have me on cloud 9. His passing skills Basketball IQ and ability to run a team is extraordinary. He owns Westbrick in every category except athleticism and strength.

[PerkinsFor3]

And shooting. Rubio can't shoot a lick.

And that's his biggest problem. Remember Shaun Livingston? That's Rubio, but Rubio's much smaller.

Small, not strong, not atletic and no shot is a bad bad combo.

[dream_catcher_9]

And shooting. Rubio can't shoot a lick.

And that's his biggest problem. Remember Shaun Livingston? That's Rubio, but Rubio's much smaller.

Small, not strong, not atletic and no shot is a bad bad combo.

He ain't small. 6'4" sure he needs to get stronger but he has the frame to do it. Plus Rubio is a much better player than young Shaun Livingston. he may not be very athletic but he can get to point A to point B like Harden. he makes up for his lack of athleticism by quick thinking and Advanced ball handling.

Anyways no use talking about it he isn't coming here(thanks Presti).

[roc]

Chauncey Billups started to pull his career together in Minnesota where he played with Terrell Brandon and Anthony Peeler (a fairly good ball handler for a SG). Later, he joined the Pistons and played alongside another SG that can facilitate offense in Rip Hamilton.

Rip is not so good at that although he thinks he is, Tay was/is much better in that facet of the game.

[slick_watts]

Chauncey Billups started to pull his career together in Minnesota where he played with Terrell Brandon and Anthony Peeler (a fairly good ball handler for a SG). Later, he joined the Pistons and played alongside another SG that can facilitate offense in Rip Hamilton.

Rip is not so good at that although he thinks he is, Tay was/is much better in that facet of the game.

Rip's no PG but it seems like he's capable of diagnosing the offense and making the extra pass, at least, and he's a decent passer. Not to mention Tayshaun Prince. OKC's starting lineup doesn't have anything like that so Russ is often forced into doing things he might not be fully capable of yet. Whatever you say about Rip's ability to pass it's definitely better than Thabo's..

[roc]

Thought you were talking about ball handling as opposed to passing. Rip is mos def better at passing than he is at handling the rock. Tay is good at both. How is Harden at those duties?