Post#257 » by Pogue Mahone » Sun Dec 27, 2009 11:53 pm
I don't think The Paper Tiger has the prerequisite footwork to be a reliable post option. Think about all the bail-out calls he gets down low. Think about all the over-the-backs he gets away with. Sure, reward aggressive play, when warranted, but jimminy christmas.
Virtually every pick set by Howard could be called as a moving screen. He has a penchant for planting a bow in the back of the man he is picking and pushing off on his dive to the tin.
Howard is the perhaps the least skilled "star" in the league with the full support of The Society for Inventive Refereeing (under the direction of the sneaky snake, Stern.) Yes he is physically blessed. Yes he is athletically blessed. No, he is not skilled. No, he doesn't deserve half the calls he gets and half of those should be going the other way.
Perkins, on the other hand, is really just starting to get comfortable. I have read many people opine this and that over the years about Perkins but if you read back, here and on other sites, exactly what I have said regarding his development has transpired. In fact, if you visit the archive of PIAB, you will probably see different time-lines of expected "breakout" streaks that I accurately predicted (in some cases, 18 months in advance.) What did I base these on? His advanced footwork, particularly on defense. His shooting stroke during warm-ups (he will incorporate that eventually and he will safely be a 16-17 PPG scorer, just watch. I am looking at the start of next season before he really starts to feel comfortable with that aspect of his game. It will be another 18 months before he is consistently putting up those scoring numbers.)
Anyways, back to Perkins. He is pretty maxed-out physically but the beauty of his game is in the subtleties. He brings the lane-clogging of a Jason Collins. He brings the shot-blocking of a mid-career Tree Rollins. He brings a Nene-like ability to switch. He brings the rebounding of a Tree Rollins. In fact, before LAST year, I had Tree Rollins as his low-side comp.
Think about that, quite an exciting time to be a Celtic fan. We are competing for championships (the most glaring need being a low-possession, spot-up shooting SG with length, athleticism and defensive activity, imo) right now. We have three players, assuming health (a big if) that project as a better version of Fat Lever, Bonzi Wells (unlikely to reach) and a rich man's Tree Rollins (who could be a poor man's Alonzo Mourning assuming he masters the 12-15 footer and is given enough opportunity.)
Right now, the things prohibiting Rondo, Perkins and, to a lesser extent, Walker from developing are minutes (Walker and, to a lesser extent, Perkins) and opportunity (Rondo is starting to get that this year, Perkins usage is there but not consistently and Walker can't break the line-up.)
In Perkins' case, he has actually improved his efficiencies despite a drastic increase in usage rate. This was a point I made on another site that was laughed at and brushed away. While it is normally true that players lose efficiency as they gain usage (call it comfort zone, if you will), there are some rare players who actually lose efficiency by playing at too low of a usage. People tend to think of it only in one direction and that is that some players are not star scorers and fail under the burden of increased defensive attention. Then again, very low usage players, as Perkins has been for much of his career, are unable to develop a rhythm and consistency to their offensive game because of too few touches.
Pete and I had at it about two years ago regarding Perkins. Nothing major but if I recall his argument, it was that Perkins is just big and takes up space. My counter was that endomorphs and meso-endos are the ideal to match with meso-ectos like Kevin Garnett. I went on to say that while much of the defensive improvement could be attributed to Garnett in his first year with the Celtics, I felt that too many people were discounting the presence of Kendrick Perkins and his impact on Kevin Garnett. If I recall, I likened it to the symbiotic relationship of a Loscutoff/Russell.
Right now, there is a bit of a possession crunch that has been going on for about two years. It happens to manifest itself at different times but most notably when one of the higher usage players takes rhythm shots and stalls the offense to get his comfort shots. It kills ball movement, shuts down player movement because he is the only one moving as everyone else attempts to create space for him by setting picks, causes decreased efficiency from the real star wing because his comfort areas (in particular the left side) are being encroached upon and, worst of all, takes the ball out of the hands of more talented playmakers. This is usually followed by extended bouts of one-on-one by other members of the team and too many outside shots.
Give Perkins and Rondo the opportunity and this team will be unbeatable. Continue taking mid-range, low offensive rebound probability shots, without the added value of trips to the line, and this team's offense will continue to stall at key points.