Stafford: Manning, Harrington or Plummer?

MicrowaveReborn · Post #1 » by **MicrowaveReborn** » Sun Dec 27, 2009 8:00 pm

Excuse the title of this post. The point I am trying to make is that Matt Stafford can be a very good QB in this league, maybe even great. Here are the stat lines of three QB's in their rookie years:

Payton Manning

16 games
56.7 pct
3739 yards (6.5 avg)
26 TD
28 Int
71.2 Passer rating
Colts 1998 record: 3-13

Jake Plummer

10 games
53.0 pct
2203 yards (7.4 avg)
15 TD
15 Int
73.1 Passer rating
Cardinals 1997 record: 4-12

Joey Harrington

14 games
50.1 pct
2294 yards (5.3 avg)
12 TD
16 Int
59.9 Passer rating
Lions 2002 record: 3-13

Matt Stafford

10 games
53.3 pct
2267 yards (6.0 avg)
13 TD
20 Int
61.0 Passer rating
Lions 2009 record: 2-14 (TBD ?)

The next 12-24 months will be very important in the development of Stafford. What players Mayhew and Schwartz put with Stafford is vital to their success. The Colts surrounded Manning with talent, result is unquestionable. The Cardinals (at that time) did not surround Plummer with talent, result is Plummer was a failure. The Lions (at that time, and since) did not surround Harrington with talent, result is Harrington was a failure. The Lions can make Stafford another Manning or another Harrington/Plummer. It is their choice. If you notice, the stat lines of Plummer, Stafford and Harrington are shockingly similar.

Liqourish · Post #2 » by **Liqourish** » Sun Dec 27, 2009 11:35 pm

Stafford is already better than Harrington. Joey threw less INTs, but it really didn't matter, he still sucked enough to overcome that. And he didn't have two major injuries his rookie season that limited him. Harrington was a whole bunch of fail, even without the lousy team around him.

I agree that what Mayhew/Schwartz do with the team will determine Matts development. But I'm still quite hopeful for him. Mayhew has to bring in guys to protect him. period. Our Oline (besides Dom/TEs) sucks.

MicrowaveReborn · Post #3 » by **MicrowaveReborn** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 12:50 am

Liqourish wrote:Stafford is already better than Harrington. Joey threw less INTs, but it really didn't matter, he still sucked enough to overcome that. And he didn't have two major injuries his rookie season that limited him. Harrington was a whole bunch of fail, even without the lousy team around him.

I agree that what Mayhew/Schwartz do with the team will determine Matts development. But I'm still quite hopeful for him. Mayhew has to bring in guys to protect him. period. Our Oline (besides Dom/TEs) sucks.

Dom is average at best. Yes, he is our best lineman - not good enough. I think we should push Backus/Gosder inside and find two replacements at LT and RT. But, not in this draft. This draft needs to concentrate on defense, defense, defense. I would draft DL in rounds 1, 2 and 3. Then go Best Available Defense the rest of the way. We are in serious need of a new RB, because Kevin Smith might not be ready, but again, not this draft. Don't be surprised (the Lions are the Lions) if the Lions draft:

Lions will draft

1 DT - McCoy (Oklahoma)
2 RB - Gerhart (Stanford)
3 WR - Gilyard (Cinci)
4 DL - Best Available
5 CB - Best Available
6 OL - Best Available
7 CB - Best Available

In my opinion:

Lions should draft

1 DL
2 DL
3 DL
4 CB
5 Best Available Defense
6 Best Available Defense
7 Best Available Defense

The way the Lions think...they never address the trenches. The few drafts that they took OL, they were busts. Heck, even Damien Woody (free agent) struggled in Detroit (previously a pro-bowl player), but now starts at RT with the Jets. Bottom line, the Lions cannot develop OL talent. The best player on the team was Shawn Rogers...and they gave him away for a pair of movie tickets. Draft defense, and listen to Gunter Cunningham - the defense was "close to decent at times", with very little talent. I was impressed with the defense, at times (limited). Imagine what the defense would be like with some talent. By the way, cut the entire secondary (except Delmas).

Liqourish · Post #4 » by **Liqourish** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 1:12 am

I agree that our defense has actually looked good at times. IMO, they just haven't put a full game together. Our defense has actually played good halves a couple times this year, but not a full game. We really need help.

Delmas is a beast. Our linebackers are okay (not outstanding, but hardly worst in the league, we can fill other holes). Jason Hunter has looked good when he's not hurt. Cliff Avril has made a few good plays. The rest of our defense is absolute garbage. We need new DTs, We need new CBs, another S, another DE, another LB.

We need a better OL, but there really aren't good Olinemen besides Okung in this draft. It's really weak offensively. I'd rather try to fill holes through trades/FAs and then draft OLine next year.

MicrowaveReborn · Post #5 » by **MicrowaveReborn** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 2:27 am

Liqourish wrote:I agree that our defense has actually looked good at times. IMO, they just haven't put a full game together. Our defense has actually played good halves a couple times this year, but not a full game. We really need help.

Delmas is a beast. Our linebackers are okay (not outstanding, but hardly worst in the league, we can fill other holes). Jason Hunter has looked good when he's not hurt. Cliff Avril has made a few good plays. The rest of our defense is absolute garbage. We need new DTs, We need new CBs, another S, another DE, another LB.

We need a better OL, but there really aren't good Olinemen besides Okung in this draft. It's really weak offensively. I'd rather try to fill holes through trades/FAs and then draft OLine next year.

Agree, OL next year's draft. RB, next year's draft (possible FA signing). DL, in this year's draft. LB, possibly this year's draft. CB, this year's draft. Your analysis of our defense is dead on...good job.

MicrowaveReborn · Post #6 » by **MicrowaveReborn** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 2:44 am

MicrowaveReborn wrote:
Liqourish wrote:I agree that our defense has actually looked good at times. IMO, they just haven't put a full game together. Our defense has actually played good halves a couple times this year, but not a full game. We really need help.

Delmas is a beast. Our linebackers are okay (not outstanding, but hardly worst in the league, we can fill other holes). Jason Hunter has looked good when he's not hurt. Cliff Avril has made a few good plays. The rest of our defense is absolute garbage. We need new DTs, We need new CBs, another S, another DE, another LB.

We need a better OL, but there really aren't good Olinemen besides Okung in this draft. It's really weak offensively. I'd rather try to fill holes through trades/FAs and then draft OLine next year.

Agree, OL next year's draft. RB, next year's draft (possible FA signing). DL, in this year's draft. LB, FA signing - for depth. CB, this year's draft. Your analysis of our defense is dead on...good job.

Bartender · Post #7 » by **Bartender** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 4:01 pm

1. (Suh or Berry)
2. If we draft Suh first round, then we draft Patrick Robinson or Brandon Ghee
If we draft Berry first round, then we draft Carlos Dunlap or Everson Griffen
3. Toby Gerhart or best DL or DB available.

I really like that thought of getting Osi Umenyiora. If we get Osi AND Suh, I would be all for drafting Carlos Dunlap (pass extraordinaire). We would have an awesome DL.

MicrowaveReborn · Post #8 » by **MicrowaveReborn** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 4:35 pm

Bartender wrote:1. (Suh or Berry)
2. If we draft Suh first round, then we draft Patrick Robinson or Brandon Ghee
If we draft Berry first round, then we draft Carlos Dunlap or Everson Griffen
3. Toby Gerhart or best DL or DB available.

I really like that thought of getting Osi Umenyiora. If we get Osi AND Suh, I would be all for drafting Carlos Dunlap (pass extraordinaire). We would have an awesome DL.

1. Suh or McCoy (DT)
2. Carlos Dunlap (DE)
3. Corey Wooten (DE)
4. Best Secondary Available
5. Best Secondary Available
6. Best Secondary Available
7. Best Secondary Available

If Gerhart is available in the 3rd round, it would be very difficult for the Lions to not take him. If he is there, the Lions will take him. They should hold off and stick with defense...but these are the Lions. They have an excellent opportunity to seriously upgrade the defense with a deep DL draft. I just have a bad feeling that the Lions are going to go all offense because of Stafford. I would not be against signing Osi (at the right price). I would still draft DL and secondary, even if we decide to sign Osi.

Liqourish · Post #9 » by **Liqourish** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 4:37 pm

I'm not high on Dunlap. I know people make mistakes, but he's made quite a few and his latest DUI is just more icing on the cake IMO. I'd rather draft a CB or OT in the second if Dunlap is the alternative.

MicrowaveReborn · Post #10 » by **MicrowaveReborn** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 7:08 pm

Liqourish wrote:I'm not high on Dunlap. I know people make mistakes, but he's made quite a few and his latest DUI is just more icing on the cake IMO. I'd rather draft a CB or OT in the second if Dunlap is the alternative.

Hmmm, good point. He is a tremendous talent, but do the Lions need that type of distraction? Not sure. You just might be right. Not sure about drafting OT in the second. The draft seems to be pretty weak when it comes to O-line. The bad thing about the Lions is that they would have to pay more for any FA. No FA will "want" to come to the Lions as their first option.

Bartender · Post #11 » by **Bartender** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 7:37 pm

Well, I would rather get a RB in FA. Sproles would be nice to have if we got a power back behind him. I love how good he is in the receiving game.

MicrowaveReborn · Post #12 » by **MicrowaveReborn** » Tue Dec 29, 2009 5:29 am

Bartender wrote:Well, I would rather get a RB in FA. Sproles would be nice to have if we got a power back behind him. I love how good he is in the receiving game.

Sproles and Kevin Smith are very similar in their game. Sproles stats are very poor in the running game (and the Chargers were a poor running blocking team, thus the drop with LT's numbers). He would be a nice addition as a #2 RB, but Smith and Morris are not strong enough runners. My concern would be that the Lions would have three RB's (Smith, Morris and Sproles). None of the three is a true #1 RB. Depth is nice, but we need a strong game breaker...Smith is decent (he will give you 80 yards per game) and some decent receiving numbers, but he is not the game breaker we need to get Calvin Johnson the space he needs. No one is afraid of the Lions run game, this Calvin Johnson suffers. I believe that Ronnie Brown is a restricted FA. He would be an ideal addition, but the Lions would have to throw sick money at Brown in order for him to consider the Lions. Not going to happen...