First round opponent: It's likely Zona, cannot play Philly

LUKE23 · Post #1 » by **LUKE23** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 4:33 pm

In the updated MJS blog, apparently it is not possible for us to play the Eagles in the first round. If Philly beats Dallas next week, they are 2 or 3 with Dallas being 6. If Philly loses, they are the other wild card team.

It will be Cardinals, Cowboys, or Queens.

If Cowboys win and we lose, we play Cowboys.

If Cowboys lose and we lose, we play Cardinals.

If Cowboys win and we win, we play Cardinals.

If Cowobys lose and we win, we play Cardinals.

Only way we play Vikings is if Philly wins, we lose to Arizona, and Minny loses both.

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/80201242.html

Newz · Post #2 » by **Newz** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 4:34 pm

I want to play the Cowboys.

Arizona's WRs against our corners really, really scares me.

JHSFIVE · Post #3 » by **JHSFIVE** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 4:35 pm

If we played dal it would be a home game for us rught??? since we beat 'em in the reg season.

LUKE23 · Post #4 » by **LUKE23** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 4:37 pm

Newz wrote:I want to play the Cowboys.

Arizona's WRs against our corners really, really scares me.

I'd much rather play Zona. They are not as well rounded a team on offense, and Dallas has a major advantage at the TE spot, which is a weakness of ours. I also think we can move the ball much better against Arizona (I think they are giving up 360 yards per game on D). Dallas' pass rush also worries me far more.

Dallas' homefield advantage is also tougher than Zona's.

LUKE23 · Post #5 » by **LUKE23** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 4:38 pm

JHSFIVE wrote:If we played dal it would be a home game for us rught??? since we beat 'em in the reg season.

No. Division winners get home games regardless. We cannot play at home in the playoffs unless a lot of weird stuff happened (5/6 NFC championship matchup).

Simulack · Post #6 » by **Simulack** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 4:44 pm

I'd also much rather play the Cardinals. This season they have actually been worse at home than on the road. Even though Romo has a rough playoff history, he is playing at a much higher level than Warner is at the moment.

The Cards are a very inconsistent team. I have a feeling this year we are going to see the bad Cardinals and they are going to get knocked out early.

LUKE23 · Post #7 » by **LUKE23** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 4:46 pm

Simulack wrote:I'd also much rather play the Cardinals. This season they have actually been worse at home than on the road. Even though Romo has a rought playoff history, he is playing at a much higher level than Warner is at the moment.

The Cards are a very inconsistent team. I have a feeling this year we are going to see the bad Cardinals and they are going to get knocked out early.

I also like that Arizona is fairly one-dimensional on offense. Their running game is average to below average. With Dallas, you have to respect the run a lot more with their three-pronged attack (4.8 YPC on the year), and Barber is the big type of back that can give us problems. I also hate the Witten matchup.

But the homefield is a big one. Arizona to me is a lot easier place to play than Dallas.

Newz · Post #8 » by **Newz** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 4:50 pm

Arizona may have a one dimensional offense... But it works.

No one can cover Fitz, I don't care if we do have Woodson. Every corner in the NFL is at a mismatch against him. Boldin would destroy Tramon Williams. Breaston against Bush/Bell is an absolute joke. If we play them, we have to hope Warner (or that we can get A LOT of pressure on him) has an off game or else they will put up 35+ easily.

I'm not overly concerned with Dallas being able to run the ball, since we have one of the best run defenses in the league. I agree Witten is a major problem, but at least our corners can match-up with them. Also, the Cowboys tend to choke in the playoffs, especially Romo.

LUKE23 · Post #9 » by **LUKE23** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 4:55 pm

Nobody stops Fitz, but Woodson will definitely hold him under his normal production. I'll take going against 2-3 good WR's over solid WR's, a stud TE, and a stud RB any day. It's easier to gameplan the Cardinals on offense than the Cowboys.

I don't really take the past choking into account either. Based on how the teams are playing this season, especially right now, and the Cardinals lack of a big homefield advantage, it's an easy choice for me.

Simulack · Post #10 » by **Simulack** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 5:11 pm

I'd also give Dallas the mental edge over 'Zona. The Cowboys are going to hear nothing all week but the fact that they haven't won a playoff game since 1996. Combine that with the memory of some of their recent post-season flame outs and I think that team is going to be highly motivated and come to play this year. I don't see them coming out and laying an egg this year.

The Cardinals are basically in the opposite situation after their SB run last year. Obviously that doesn't mean they are going to just roll over and die this year but I think you have to give a huge motivational edge to the Cowboys.

shaolin34 · Post #11 » by **shaolin34** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 5:46 pm

If our likely playoff opponent is going to be Arizona, how hard will we play them this coming week? Will we try to win to ensure we don't play at Dallas or Minnesota? Will we treat it like a preseason game? Will we rest some players part of the game or hold them out completely? If it was a possibility, I'd be ok with us forfeiting the game and not even bother making the trip down there, essentially giving us a pre-postseason bye. I just don't want anyone injured for the playoffs in a relatively meaningless game.

Post #12 » by **ReasonablySober** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 5:49 pm

shaolin34 wrote:If our likely playoff opponent is going to be Arizona, how hard will we play them this coming week? Will we try to win to ensure we don't play at Dallas or Minnesota? Will we treat it like a preseason game? Will we rest some players part of the game or hold them out completely? If it was a possibility, I'd be ok with us forfeiting the game and not even bother making the trip down there, essentially giving us a pre-postseason bye. I just don't want anyone injured for the playoffs in a relatively meaningless game.

I'd play to win the game. I completely disagree with the idea that you can all of the sudden flip a switch and enter 'playoff mode'. What the Colts are doing, sitting guys, is a joke and not grounded in any kind of reality.

I also think there could be some kind of mental advantage to going out to Arizona and absolutely putting one on them. Beat them up, hang 40 points on them. Send Arizona into the playoffs on a down note.

Newz · Post #13 » by **Newz** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 6:22 pm

LUKE23 wrote:Nobody stops Fitz, but Woodson will definitely hold him under his normal production. I'll take going against 2-3 good WR's over solid WR's, a stud TE, and a stud RB any day. It's easier to gameplan the Cardinals on offense than the Cowboys.

I don't really take the past choking into account either. Based on how the teams are playing this season, especially right now, and the Cardinals lack of a big homefield advantage, it's an easy choice for me.

If by 'good WRs' you mean the best WR in the NFL (Fitz), another top 10 guy talent wise (Boldin) and the best third WR in the NFL (Breaston).

I don't care if it is easy to gameplan against a team... It was easy to gameplan against New England the year they went 16-0. Teams knew they were going to pass, but it didn't matter, they still couldn't stop them... Teams couldn't stop Arizona last year in the playoffs either and all they did was throw the ball.

eagle13 · Post #14 » by **eagle13** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 6:25 pm

DrugBust wrote:
shaolin34 wrote:If our likely playoff opponent is going to be Arizona, how hard will we play them this coming week? Will we try to win to ensure we don't play at Dallas or Minnesota? Will we treat it like a preseason game? Will we rest some players part of the game or hold them out completely? If it was a possibility, I'd be ok with us forfeiting the game and not even bother making the trip down there, essentially giving us a pre-postseason bye. I just don't want anyone injured for the playoffs in a relatively meaningless game.

I'd play to win the game. I completely disagree with the idea that you can all of the sudden flip a switch and enter 'playoff mode'. What the Colts are doing, sitting guys, is a joke and not grounded in any kind of reality.

I also think there could be some kind of mental advantage to going out to Arizona and absolutely putting one on them. Beat them up, hang 40 points on them. Send Arizona into the playoffs on a down note.

Take Rodgers, Clifton, Woodson out ONLY IF up by 18+ in 4th qtr.

LUKE23 · Post #15 » by **LUKE23** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 6:36 pm

If by 'good WRs' you mean the best WR in the NFL (Fitz), another top 10 guy talent wise (Boldin) and the best third WR in the NFL (Breaston).

I don't care if it is easy to gameplan against a team... It was easy to gameplan against New England the year they went 16-0. Teams knew they were going to pass, but it didn't matter, they still couldn't stop them... Teams couldn't stop Arizona last year in the playoffs either and all they did was throw the ball.

NE is a terrible example considering they were one of the most talented offenses ever. I don't really care what happened last year, the NFL is the most fluid sport in the world, and based on how the teams are currently playing, Arizona is the better matchup, especially taking the venues into account.

Dallas can exploit us on the ground. We are good against the run, but Dallas is one of the best running teams in the league. If we play Zona, I don't fear getting killed on the ground really at all, and we can focus on one side.

Then you have the defenses. Dallas' is better, by a pretty fair amount.

Then you have venues. Arizona hasn't been good at home.

It's not close.

Newz · Post #16 » by **Newz** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 6:40 pm

LUKE23 wrote:
If by 'good WRs' you mean the best WR in the NFL (Fitz), another top 10 guy talent wise (Boldin) and the best third WR in the NFL (Breaston).

I don't care if it is easy to gameplan against a team... It was easy to gameplan against New England the year they went 16-0. Teams knew they were going to pass, but it didn't matter, they still couldn't stop them... Teams couldn't stop Arizona last year in the playoffs either and all they did was throw the ball.

NE is a terrible example considering they were one of the most talented offenses ever. I don't really care what happened last year, the NFL is the most fluid sport in the world, and based on how the teams are currently playing, Arizona is the better matchup, especially taking the venues into account.

Dallas can exploit us on the ground. We are good against the run, but Dallas is one of the best running teams in the league. If we play Zona, I don't fear getting killed on the ground really at all, and we can focus on one side.

Then you have the defenses. Dallas' is better, by a pretty fair amount.

Then you have venues. Arizona hasn't been good at home.

It's not close.

Oh... So you only take this year into account, since the NFL changes so much year by year...

So apparently we should overlook how we completely crushed Dallas when we played them this season? :-?

Considering that, I agree, it's not even close. We should want to play Dallas.

LUKE23 · Post #17 » by **LUKE23** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 6:45 pm

Yes, last year is irrelevant when it comes to the NFL. Look at Pittsburgh this year, they might not make the playoffs. You don't think NFL trends continue year to year do you? If so, you must not have been watching the sport that long.

The Dallas game was in GB. So I don't really consider that a big measuring stick, especially when it was what, almost two months ago now?

We matchup better with Arizona. With that matchup, you can go in expecting to completely shut them down on the run. You can't say the same with Dallas. And again, no desire to play in Dallas over Arizona.

Newz · Post #18 » by **Newz** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 6:52 pm

LUKE23 wrote:Yes, last year is irrelevant when it comes to the NFL. Look at Pittsburgh this year, they might not make the playoffs. You don't think NFL trends continue year to year do you? If so, you must not have been watching the sport that long.

No, I think the NFL changes a lot year to year. What hasn't changed is how good Arizona's WRs are.

The Dallas game was in GB. So I don't really consider that a big measuring stick, especially when it was what, almost two months ago now?

Oh, so what happened this year doesn't matter now? I see... So basically any argument I make you are just going to discard and say that it doesn't matter?

We matchup better with Arizona. With that matchup, you can go in expecting to completely shut them down on the run. You can't say the same with Dallas. And again, no desire to play in Dallas over Arizona.

By far our biggest weakness defensively is our secondary, IMO.

Woodson is great, but as we both agree on, he isn't going to stop Fitz. Williams is a solid number 2, but he isn't going to stop Boldin. If Bush/Bell random get matched up on Fitz/Boldin it is going to be terrible and they could both very easily be abused by Breaston. Our only hope to stop their passing game is to constantly pressure Warner or hope he has a bad game.

I will take the chance that our front 7 (one of the best, if not the best, in the NFL) can stop the Cowboys running game. I have a lot higher hopes that our corners won't get destroyed by Austin-Williams-Crayton.

I think we match up much better against the Cowboys.

Ayt · Post #19 » by **Ayt** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 7:03 pm

As good as Arizona's offense looks on paper, they are 11th in yards and 10th in points scored. They also played in a **** division. We are 4th in yards and points scored.

Their D is 20th in yards allowed and 11th in points allowed. Ours is 3rd in yards allowed and 10 in points allowed.

We've allowed the fewest rushing yards per game in the NFL and the Cards rank 27 in rushing yards per game. Completely shutdown their run game and try to get pressure on Warner in bad down and distance situations. Force some TO's (we are 2rd in forced TO's) and hopefully get some sacks (we're tied for 8th in the league).

Offensively for us, Arizona is 3rd in YPC against. Grant could be key because Arizona can bring the pressure (3rd in sacks). We need Grant to have a big game and Capers to come up with some blitzes that get there because Arizona is going to be in a lot of obvious passing situations. Hopefully ST and penalties don't kill us because the Cards are very beatable.

chuckleslove · Post #20 » by **chuckleslove** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 7:07 pm

If the game were played at home I would probably rather have Dallas especially with their history of choke jobs in late season/playoffs. Sure they have 2 wins this December but they are against a really bad Washington team and a New Orleans team that has been struggling as of late and just lost to Tampa Bay. They lost to San Diego and I personally expect them to lose this weekend to Philadelphia. If they win then all the more reason I don't want to play them because it means they just might have figured out this playing in the late season thing.

Arizona has been very inconsistent all year, they have turned the ball over a lot, I know I had Warner as my fantasy QB to start the year and he flat out killed me a couple times with lots of fumbles and interceptions, something our defense is very good at taking advantage of.

You say that AZ has 2 top 10 talent receives but I don't view Fitzgerald that way. He went on a tear at the end of last year and into the playoffs and for sure the guy is a beast and a very good WR, but if we look at say yardage, Fitz is 16th in the league, Boldin is 22nd and Breaston is 45th.

Now the Packers don't have a clear cut third guy though you could argue that Finley is developing into that guy but Jennings comes in at 15th in yards and Driver is 21st, just ahead of Fitz and Boldin. Our receiving group is every bit as good as Arizona's and their defense is worse than ours and our QB is better than theirs, our running game has been better than theirs. I don't see how you can argue that its a bad matchup when we have a better group of receivers as a whole. Who does AZ have after Breaston? Can you even name their tight end without looking it up? I'd take Finley, Jones and Nelson over Breaston + whoever else they have. I'll take our running game over theirs even though I don't think Ryan Grant is a stud by any means he has been really coming on the last 5-6 games or so. I'd definitely take our defense over theirs and I wouldn't be shocked to see Clay Matthews come up with 2 forced fumbles in a game against AZ because Kurt Warner loves to lay the ball on the turf. Not to mention I would see us getting 2-3 picks. We could easily end up with 5+ turnovers in a game against Arizona.

Dallas doesn't particularly have anything that scares me on offense, I think we could easily shut down their running game, Woodson should be able to mostly contain Austin and our other CBs are good enough to take care of the other receivers, Witten would probably get his but he can't beat us on his own. Playing in Dallas though is a much tougher proposition than playing in AZ.

I don't know why you think AZ is going to light us up so bad I just don't see it that way. I would expect Clay Matthews to be wrecking havoc in the backfield all day long.