Week 17 Lead Up: Arizona Cards Week

LarryHarris · Post #1 » by **LarryHarris** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 8:05 pm

Figure we are all anxious to begin discussing the potential playoff ramifications of this game... If we can go and beat up on Arizona and then we get to play them in the playoffs the next week, they should be pretty sufficiently demoralized... I am hoping that is what happens...

Ayt · Post #2 » by **Ayt** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 8:09 pm

I'll post the same thing from the other thread.

As good as Arizona's offense looks on paper, they are 11th in yards and 10th in points scored. They also played in a **** division. We are 4th in yards and points scored.

Their D is 20th in yards allowed and 11th in points allowed. Ours is 3rd in yards allowed and 10 in points allowed.

We've allowed the fewest rushing yards per game in the NFL and the Cards rank 27 in rushing yards per game. Completely shutdown their run game and try to get pressure on Warner in bad down and distance situations. Force some TO's (we are 2rd in forced TO's) and hopefully get some sacks (we're tied for 8th in the league).

Offensively for us, Arizona is 3rd in YPC against. Grant could be key because Arizona can bring the pressure (3rd in sacks). We need Grant to have a big game and Capers to come up with some blitzes that get there because Arizona is going to be in a lot of obvious passing situations. Hopefully ST and penalties don't kill us because the Cards are very beatable.

LarryHarris · Post #3 » by **LarryHarris** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 8:19 pm

Good info, Ayt...

I am always worried when we put the game on the back of Grant. That said, whatever happens, as long as we don't get blown out, I'd have a good feeling against the Cards in the playoffs. It is incredibly hard to beat a team twice in a row. I think we can beat the Cards twice and I feel the pressure is more on them, being a higher seed and at home. However, I do believe if we demoralize them, we make that playoff game that much easier. That said, I don't want to show them too much of our attack and would rather employee special blitzes and what not when we are playing in the playoffs, with way, this is a really interesting, strange situation.

There is also a variable where the Cards have nothing to play for, I think, in that case, we shouldn't play for anything either and just save ourselves up for the playoffs...

chuckleslove · Post #4 » by **chuckleslove** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 8:36 pm

We will know by the time our game kicks off whether we are locked into the 5th spot or need to win to get the 5th spot and who exactly we would play in each scenario.

I don't have the stats to back it up and I don't have the time to look through game logs or something so I'm just going off of a gut feeling here but it really feels like Grant has typically gotten stronger as the year goes on. Every year he has been with us it seems he has started slow and by mid season and towards the end of the year he starts to get it going. It feels the same this year so I'm not too concerned about relying on him. I do wish he had better vision because it seems at times he just runs straight into the teeth of the defense when if he could make one move to bounce outside he would have a nice hole. I don't know if that is entirely his fault though or part of the zone blocking scheme where you are supposed to just make one move and go up field or whatever, at which case maybe its the fault of the offensive line not always opening up holes. No matter what the case I'm not too concerned about Ryan Grant because he has turned it on as of late and I would expect nothing less out of him. Remember he set a Packers record and ran for what was it 220 yards or so against Seattle in his first playoff game. Granted he didn't follow it up with anything spectacular against the Giants but that game wasn't really much about offense with the temperature being so damn cold for that game.

I want either a rematch with AZ or a rematch with MN for the first round of the playoffs, the latter is a long shot but it would be so sweet to send Brett packing for Mississippi for the off season.

LUKE23 · Post #5 » by **LUKE23** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 9:12 pm

It's high likelihood that this is our matchup. Of all the playoff possibles, this is the one I wanted.

Arizona is a sieve against the run (4.6 YPC allowed, 29th in the NFL) and solid against the pass (9th, tied with 3 other teams at 6.7 YPA).

On offense they are 21st in rushing at 4.1 YPC and 12th in passing at 7.2 YPA. It should also be noted that they played in easily the weakest division in football.

They have talent at WR, but there is nothing that stands out about them that is dominant or non-exploitable. They are bad running and stopping the run. I want any team we can make one-dimensional on either side.

To break it down more simple, I will say this, I think we can run and pass on them, and I think they can only pass on us. I see our offense winning the TOP battle should they meet. Turnovers are always big in playoff games, but I think if MM is smart about running, Warner is throwing a lot more than Rodgers, leading to more chances at INT's.

chuckleslove · Post #6 » by **chuckleslove** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 9:19 pm

I think part of the reason that AZ is statistically so good against the pass is because they are so bad against the run. Was it last year when Al Harris was out with the spleen issue? I remember when he was out anyone could pass on us pretty much at will at the time yet we were still ranked near the top in passing defense because our run defense was so awful. Most teams if they can run all over someone will do so, it keeps the clock moving, wears out their defense, keeps your defense rested and is so demoralizing to the other team. So a lot of teams will just run, run, and run some more against AZ and put the passing on the back burner.

LarryHarris · Post #7 » by **LarryHarris** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 9:21 pm

chuckleslove wrote:I think part of the reason that AZ is statistically so good against the pass is because they are so bad against the run. Was it last year when Al Harris was out with the spleen issue? I remember when he was out anyone could pass on us pretty much at will at the time yet we were still ranked near the top in passing defense because our run defense was so awful. Most teams if they can run all over someone will do so, it keeps the clock moving, wears out their defense, keeps your defense rested and is so demoralizing to the other team. So a lot of teams will just run, run, and run some more against AZ and put the passing on the back burner.

This is a very good analysis, that said, I don't know that the Packers would fall into this trap because there is no way of knowing what you are going to get out of Grant and they have a stellar WR core.

LUKE23 · Post #8 » by **LUKE23** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 9:22 pm

chuckleslove wrote:I think part of the reason that AZ is statistically so good against the pass is because they are so bad against the run. Was it last year when Al Harris was out with the spleen issue? I remember when he was out anyone could pass on us pretty much at will at the time yet we were still ranked near the top in passing defense because our run defense was so awful. Most teams if they can run all over someone will do so, it keeps the clock moving, wears out their defense, keeps your defense rested and is so demoralizing to the other team. So a lot of teams will just run, run, and run some more against AZ and put the passing on the back burner.

Well, they are 9th in YPA, which is the best way to measure pass D. It takes number of throws out of the equation, which is why I like it. But they also played six of their games against SF/STL/SEA as well.

A good passing team can both throw and run on Arizona. On the other side, with their run O below average and our run D above average, I like the matchup of turning them solely into a passing team.

It's just a good matchup all around.

Ayt · Post #9 » by **Ayt** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 9:31 pm

Our run D isn't above average, Luke. It's elite. We give up the fewest rushing yards per game and are 2nd in YPC against behind Baltimore.

We'll probably be in nickel most of the game since Arizona never runs the ball.

LUKE23 · Post #10 » by **LUKE23** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 9:34 pm

Ayt wrote:Our run D isn't above average, Luke. It's elite. We give up the fewest rushing yards per game and are 2nd in YPC against behind Baltimore.

Yeah, I know, should have worded it differently.

That is why I want Zona. Poor run O vs. one of top run D's in NFL = run completely shut down.

Ayt · Post #11 » by **Ayt** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 9:35 pm

I doubt they even try to run all that much. Force us into nickel and dime and try to exploit our banged up secondary. We just have to hope Capers comes up with a good plan and we can get consistent pressure.

chuckleslove · Post #12 » by **chuckleslove** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 9:44 pm

Ayt wrote:I doubt they even try to run all that much. Force us into nickel and dime and try to exploit our banged up secondary. We just have to hope Capers comes up with a good plan and we can get consistent pressure.

+1

LarryHarris · Post #13 » by **LarryHarris** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 10:23 pm

Ayt wrote:I doubt they even try to run all that much. Force us into nickel and dime and try to exploit our banged up secondary. We just have to hope Capers comes up with a good plan and we can get consistent pressure.

Well, that psycho packaged worked once in Pittsburgh and then not again... Don't recall them even trying it last game... I don't think that is the answer. I think we can get away with blitzing against Arizona, but I am extremely worried about how Bush and Williams will hold up against some of the best WR in the game... If we can somehow get pressure, I think we can negate the WRs somewhat, but it has to be consistent...

Post #14 » by **MickeyDavis** » Tue Dec 29, 2009 5:13 am

Fox still has the option to move Dallas/Philly to a late start and I'm afraid they may do that. I hope not, I'd really like to know if we are playing for seeding or not.

chuckleslove · Post #15 » by **chuckleslove** » Tue Dec 29, 2009 5:15 am

MickeyDavis wrote:Fox still has the option to move Dallas/Philly to a late start and I'm afraid they may do that. I hope not, I'd really like to know if we are playing for seeding or not.

Last week of the season they have until Thursday to change it right?

Purple Palace · Post #16 » by **Purple Palace** » Tue Dec 29, 2009 5:21 am

I thought Cincy/NYJ was already moved???????

and AZ now has something to play for week 17.

chuckleslove · Post #17 » by **chuckleslove** » Tue Dec 29, 2009 5:21 am

Purple Palace wrote:I thought Cincy/NYJ was already moved???????

and AZ now has something to play for week 17.

CIN/NYJ was moved to the Sunday night game.

Fox can move the Phi/Dal game to 4pm eastern instead of 1pm.

chuckleslove · Post #18 » by **chuckleslove** » Tue Dec 29, 2009 5:33 am

No matter what its going to be an exciting week of very meaningful football games in both leagues.

I can't remember the last time so many playoff positions were up for grabs in the last week of the season, if ever.

Purple Palace · Post #19 » by **Purple Palace** » Tue Dec 29, 2009 5:40 am

I thought the Philly/Dallas game was already 4:15 pm ET..that's what it's listed as.

NYG/Minn is the early game still, so if Minny wins, AZ will have nothing to play for as NYG winning is part 1 of getting the #2 seed for AZ.

chuckleslove · Post #20 » by **chuckleslove** » Tue Dec 29, 2009 5:43 am

Interesting, I could have sworn it was a 1:00pm game before, maybe it was already moved and I missed it or maybe it was always 4:15 and I'm going crazy, either is possible.