Everything points to a deadline trade

[Narf]

Let's look at the facts.
* We have reports that Pekovic is coming over. Let's assume he's getting 4+ mil, which is what he'd get in Europe. That's a big chunk of cap space gone.
* We have a slew of picks, 1st and 2nd rounders.
* More and more teams are being discussed for "cutting salary" from good players, AI2 being the most recent one.
* The Wolves are already showing signs of actually winning, in the near term.
* Kahn is a trades machine, and has been talking about stockpiling assets. "Stockpiling assets" generally points to using them rather than keeping them. "Acquiring players" would be a better way to say we're keeping them.

If the reports are true, and Pekovic is coming over, then cap space is moot. We can't sign a max player and Pekovic. But if we TRADE for a max player, we can use the MLE to sign Pekovic and we'd be set. Now I'm not saying this is Jefferson + cap + picks for Chris Paul + Okafor + Peja, but with the economy of the league shrinking cap space + picks gets you a heck of a player these days. Throw in a A prospect true center with star potential for the MLE, and it makes more sense to trade cap space rather than sign someone.

[lobishome]

It's beautiful suposing Pekovic will be a NBA good player

[Narf]

It's beautiful suposing Pekovic will be a NBA good player

How is that different than supposing Rubio will be a good NBA player?

[lobishome]

Trust me, he will be. , but with Pekovic I have doubts. Now he can abuse of his phisical superiority in Europe, but the NBA isn't the same.

[slinky]

It's beautiful suposing Pekovic will be a NBA good player

How is that different than supposing Rubio will be a good NBA player?

I believe lob has a little bit of bias...but I could be mistaken...

[Woomanchu]

Pekovic and Charlotte's 1st for Joakim Noah?

[mnWI]

* The Wolves are already showing signs of actually winning, in the near term.

....by having the 2nd worst record in the league.

[Tirion]

touche!

[slinky]

Its tough when you balance everything Kahn has said over the past several months...

--'These players deserve to be evaluated over the course of an entire season' -- No deadline trade
--'We hope to have 15-20 million in cap space next year'--No big star deadline trade, but a couple smaller ones. Maybe no Pekovic.
--'We want to lead the league in development, and have the young players all grow together'--No trade of current young assets, probably keeping most of draft picks.
--'2-3 years away from completing--No quick fixes happening this year, and maybe not next offseason either.
--'Our goal is to run, Pekovic fits more with Love and Al Jefferson as earthbound players'--All 3 of them are not Kahn's ideal post rotation.

Its tough to say and I am sure there are other little quotes that people could come up with. BUt part of me thinks that Kahn doesnt really know what he wants exactly. A lot depends on what other teams want to do. Obviously if Iggy, CP3, etc were available he would probably call up the teams and see what the asking price was. But I wouldnt be surprised if he was just 'stockpiling assets' for the armageddon when star players are being handed out for a discount.

[revprodeji]

I am not exactly sure on the cap timing (clarify Shrink), but could this actually point to a draft-day trade? What would be the incentive of trading now?

-worse draft pick
-less time understanding "value" of current players
-we do not have Pekovic signed yet.

I see no reason he would rush to the deadline when he can just pull some magic pre-draft. My understanding is free agency is not until after the draft, but I believe we technically can sign Pekovic whenever we want.

Which also makes me wonder. Being that we have pekovic's rights. Can we sign free agents, and then go over the cap and sign Pekovic, or do we need to be under the cap to sign him? My understanding with 2nd rd rookies is that you can go up to the MLE if you do not have the proper cap space, but you are not actually using the mLE.

[Narf]

I am not exactly sure on the cap timing (clarify Shrink), but could this actually point to a draft-day trade? What would be the incentive of trading now?

-worse draft pick
-less time understanding "value" of current players
-we do not have Pekovic signed yet.

I see no reason he would rush to the deadline when he can just pull some magic pre-draft. My understanding is free agency is not until after the draft, but I believe we technically can sign Pekovic whenever we want.

Which also makes me wonder. Being that we have pekovic's rights. Can we sign free agents, and then go over the cap and sign Pekovic, or do we need to be under the cap to sign him? My understanding with 2nd rd rookies is that you can go up to the MLE if you do not have the proper cap space, but you are not actually using the mLE.

I was under the assumption that we could not trade our raw cap space on draft day + have the MLE. But I might be wrong, I should look that up

Edit:
After the trade deadline, teams are free to make trades again once their season has ended, but cannot trade players whose contracts are ending or could end due to an option or ETO. So we would have to trade raw cap space, rather than expiring contracts, which means we could no longer use the MLE on Pekovic. All our contracts after this year are good ones, so we don't want to trade them.

So trade for Iggy or sign whoever we could sign in free agency for 8 million a year, assuming Peko is coming either way (as I am at this point). If we trade Gomes for an expiring + a late 1st, that's another 4 mil and we can rethink this. If we trade Sessions for a mid-late 1st plus an expiring, we could sign Peko and sign a max level contract with 5 1st round picks. That would be something.

[john2jer]

We won't have "raw cap space" on draft day. New salary cap numbers don't start until July 1st. On draft day we'd still have to balance the trade.

[revprodeji]

We can sign Pekovic up to the MLE if we do not have more cap, but I do not believe we are actually using the MLE because we already have his rights.

Keep sessions. Having quality pg play for 48 minutes is great.

[younggunsmn]

If a team uses raw cap space to acquire a player (trade or signing) it must first renounce all exceptions, including mid-level, low-level, and existing trade exceptions, which are gone for the ENTIRE NBA YEAR (until july 1 of the next year). So we cannot use raw cap space, and then the mid level exception. It's why having 6-7 million in cap room is essentially useless unless you are taking on salary in a trade. Once you use your cap room up you are essentially left with signing players to the vet minimum when it comes to free agents.

Even if we cut gomes, assuming 5 mil for draft picks we are looking at 13.5 million in cap room assuming a 53 million cap (39.6 million in guaranteed salary).

So signing BOTH peckovic and a major free agent is essentially impossible barring a salary dump. 2nd round picks require either using an exception or raw cap space to sign them unless they get only the rookie min.

SA and Houston have been creative in getting their 2nd rounders to sign 3 or 4 year deals with team options by giving them a slightly higher guaranteed salary for years 1 and 2, which in my opinion is a brilliant move when you consider the situations in the past of teams with arenas, redd, and boozer.
To do this they used a small part of the MLE. Dejaun Blair, Budinger, and Jermaine Taylor are examples of this. LAC signed Deandre Jordan for 3 years.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key= ... Rug&gid=14

Our expiring contracts are useless after the trade deadline, as prospective free agents they are not tradeable on draft day. The one asset that can (and is likely to be) traded on draft day is ryan gomes, who is only partially guaranteed for 1 million next year (2.75 mil over 3 years). We could send him to another team for a guaranteed deal and a draft pick (or move up/down). The problem is that his deal becomes fully guaranteed (3 years worth) on 6/30. So not trading him at the deadline could run the risk of having to make that decision.

This is also the reason players' 3rd and 4th yr options are decided before the season and not after.
If they were able to decide in june, teams would use them as instant expirings (like gomes this year) in trades. The union would hate this.

Narf is right in the thinking that this all points to a deadline trade. I personally believe peckovic will command the full MLE, he would easily get that in europe. If we did a trade where we took on a salary AFTER the trade deadline (around draft time) using raw cap space, our MLE is immediately gone, and so is peckovic. So a curry/galinari or gerald wallace or iguodala or similiar deal is much more appealing if done for expirings at the deadline than at draft time. We would end up with a big trade exception, but that is useless in signing pekovic.

My prediction is that gomes will be traded at the deadline, and our expirings will be used to take on a salary for either a good sg/sf (wallace, iguodala) or an asset attatched to a contract that expires next year (draft pick or good young player) like galinari/curry.

Even if we landed rudy gay, which is a longshot, he shoots only 31% from 3. That is not good enough in this offense, which puts a premium on the outside shooting of the 2 and 3, which is why I like galinari so much. We are not seeing the true potential of this offense because we lack any outside threat from the 2 and 3 positions.

Trading Pekovic is a possibility, but the absolute dearth of centers in the next couple drafts makes him pretty valuable. I don't see that guy in the draft who is the strong defensive compliment to Al/Love, not that Pekovic will be.
I like Pekovic's physicality, if it translates to the NBA it will be nice to have a guy with some size beating the hell out of guys down low that give Jefferson problems.

[younggunsmn]

If we forgo the free agent route, we could end up making a killing in draft picks trading expirings for contracts that end in 2011+ a future draft pick.

Example: wilkins+sasha for mo pete + unprotected 2011 or 2012 1st from NO. saves them 6.3 mil doubled to 12.6 for the luxury tax next year.

Cardinal for jared jeffries + chandler + unprotected 2012 1st + 2014 1st + 3 mil from NY.

Blount + Stewie + Gomes for Curry + Galinari + 3 mil from NY.

Puts us at 66 million next year (63 million in actual salary (minus rubio's cap hold).
Plus the prospect of saving money by buying out curry and jeffries.

I would do the Mo Pete deal and the galinari deal.
Galinari + a potential lottery pick would be nice for our cap room.
Better than overpaying rudy gay or ending up with nothing.
Knick picks could vary greatly depending on what FA they sign.

[shrink]

* The Wolves are already showing signs of actually winning, in the near term.

....by having the 2nd worst record in the league.

To be fair, he did say "showing signs" and I agree with that.

[shrink]

Wow -- really great thread with some very solid information.

To be clear to readers who's eyes may have rolled back in their head, let me simplify.

If Pekovic wants to come over this year, we need to be able to pay him. We have two options:

1. If we want to have cap space, we need to renounce our MLE, but then we'd have to use about $5 mil of the cap space to sign Pekovic anyway.

2. If we trade now and stay above the cap, we maintain the MLE and can use that money to sign Pekovic.

One question - is there any risk that the MLE (estimated at about $5 mil next season) won't be enough?

[shrink]

Let me add one more important item - if we traded now and didn't go under the cap, our team could carry about $10 mil more in value.

1. If we go under the cap, regardless how far, we could then spend the raw cap space back up to the cap. You can't do cap space deals that take you even $1 over, and still avoid the salary cap restrictions .. most notably, not having to salary-match trades within 125% + $100,000. To use the cap space, you need to renounce all your exceptions, so its difficult to raise your salary.

For example, let's say MIN makes some moves, and gets its salary down to $38 mil, $15 mil under the cap. They trade it back up to $53 (the cap). Without exceptions, they can only add small increments of salary, with vet min free agents and salary-matched trades.

2. Now let's suppose MIN makes a trade at next month's trade deadline, using a couple of their expirings. Instead of backing their net salary up to $38, it stays around $55 mil. They are over the cap, so their new boundary is $63 (the lux). They add Pekovic with the MLE, and still have $3 mil, and exceptions to play with.

Expirings at the deadline will have a little less trade value than waiting for them to expire, because many teams have expirings (though few of them would be willing to trade them). However, I think that if we can get the right assets, and are willing to forego our slim chances at bringing in an elite free agent, it makes sense to deal now, and run with a more expensive, and probably more talented team.

[BLACKFEET 2010]

The Knicks consider Gallo untouchable, with Chandler a tier below.
I could see Wilson being packaged with Eddy for cap relief AND incentive.
But Donnie Walsh will not accept a lapsided trade just to rid ourselves of JJ or Curry.
He just doesn't do business like that.
I'm not trolling and I actually think very highly of your players...even the ones yet to play in the league. Just stating that NYK management has options with our unwanted contracts that do not include mortgaging the future.

[jscott]

That's the thing though, the Wolves don't have any bad contracts. Most of our key players are on rookie deals and the rest are expiring bums or Al Jefferson who isn't going to be given up just for cap relief.