An Era of Historically-Bad Quarterbacking?

[Basketball Jesus]

A few weeks back while watching the Patriots-Colts game the discussion of where both Tom Brady and Peyton Manning ranked among the all-time greats came up. I opined that both were definitely Top-15 and most likely Top-10 this point in their careers while my friend argued that I may be giving them too much credit because they

[richboy]

I think the first question I would have is are you underestimating some of the QBs today.

Carson Palmer is a Troy Aikman clone and I would take him any day of the week.

Marc Bulgar having a down year but his numbers ranked him as one of the best QBs ever at this point of his career.

How much better is Jim Kelly to Big Ben

Michael Vick, Donovan McNabb are pretty good players.

Hasselbeck is probably better than a few of those guys as well.

John Elways QB rating was 79. Michael Vicks QB rating was 76. Elway completed 56% of his passes and Michael Vick 54%. Perception is that Vick can't throw. What would be the perception of John Elway if he played today.

[J.Kim]

I like Option 5, but just for the answer, not for the explanation behind it.

Anyway, I would actually opine an amalgamation of 2 of the points that you made with another one of my points. The Survivorship bias plays a huge effect, as well as the defenses catching up, along with the fact that we've become desensitized to passing (much like how Baseball fans have become desensitized to Home Runs, to an extent)

NFL Films and various other media personalities makes these former players way bigger than life itself. They make them out to be these epic heroes who braved through impossibilities in order to become legends.
You can actually see this in play today with Brett Favre and how he seems to make media personalities like John Madden fawn over him and cry tears of joy like a teenaged girl seeing her favorite boy band for the first time.
This makes it harder for these new crop of Quarterbacks to make a dent in anyone's opinions, and always get measured up to these larger-than-life legends.

As well, I think there's a point to defenses catching up. We're at a stage now where, offenses have stagnated while defenses have progressed and spread. We're now seeing a proliferation of the 3-4 as well as the Cover 2/Tampa 2 to stop/stall the once effective lateral-timed passing game. This is all my opinion of course, but I think NFL Playcalling trends are cyclical, in that once enough offensive advancements have been made, it becomes stagnated, and defensive advancements take place, in order to stop these offenses. I think we're at that precise stage, and that this skews the opinions of viewers just a little bit.

Lastly, the viewing public, in general, have become desensitized to the passing game as well. What I mean by this is that, because of your Peyton Mannings and your Dan Marinos (and their spread in the mainstream media), we've become desensitzed to 4000 yard passing seasons, despite the fact that only 3-4 QBs on average reach 4000+ yards per year.

[NO-KG-AI]

I think it has a lot to do with the good ole days... Some of the "greats" just aren't as great as they are perceived to be IMO.

Drew Brees the forgotten man in BBJ's discussion

[Basketball Jesus]

BTW

[J.Kim]

You more than exceeded my expectations.

Though, I'd be happier if this thread doesn't stall and drop to Page 10 like all your other threads do, despite the good discussions...

[NO-KG-AI]

Same, if he wasn't a split personality he'd be great. We get Peyton Manning short for a while, then he becomes Rex Grossman for stetches.

[Basketball Jesus]

You more than exceeded my expectations.

Though, I'd be happier if this thread doesn't stall and drop to Page 10 like all your other threads do, despite the good discussions...

Well, let

[richboy]

-= original quote snipped =-



Well, let

[richboy]

BTW

[J.Kim]

Maybe it's because they're still playing, but I think once these QBs start to retire one by one, and we get to see the entire breadth of their careers, and actually review their careers one-by-one with a full view of the picture, we'll start considering them for the HOF.

[Basketball Jesus]

I don't buy that at all. Actually, I think people underrate a mobile QB's potential to develop into an accomplished passer. And that these QBs are being undervalued. Call it the Michael Vick-Donovan McNabb-Daunte Culpepper corollary.

To be fair, I think the discussion had more to do with the drafts from Kordell Stewart-era up until a few seasons back. Now people don't seem to be drafting with super-mobility as much in mind.

[Basketball Jesus]

Yeah that is my point. The bar has been set so high by some QBs that people are underrating the guys playing today. Like I said John Elway considered one of the greatest QBs ever although his QB rating and percentages are compariable to Vick. He played with much more talent on the field.

I agree with everything here except for the last sentence. For the most part, Elway played with a lot of marginal talent on offense (and sometimes on defense) in an era where there were teams were quite stacked on both sides of the ball (remember, this was before modern free agency and the cap). But that

[J.Kim]

To add to my points, Option 4b is completely off-base, IMO. I'd argue the other way around. I'd argue that there's Plenty of talent across the NFL, and there's a good room for expansion, considering the level of talent in the leauge.

[Buck You]

Not enough Brett Favre's.

[richboy]

This is true (well, except for Vick) but you need to look beyond the top QBs: after those five-six guys, there

[Icness]

As well, I think there's a point to defenses catching up. We're at a stage now where, offenses have stagnated while defenses have progressed and spread. We're now seeing a proliferation of the 3-4 as well as the Cover 2/Tampa 2 to stop/stall the once effective lateral-timed passing game. This is all my opinion of course, but I think NFL Playcalling trends are cyclical, in that once enough offensive advancements have been made, it becomes stagnated, and defensive advancements take place, in order to stop these offenses. I think we're at that precise stage, and that this skews the opinions of viewers just a little bit.

Very well said. I tend to believe the defensive talent, and defensive coaching talent, is vastly superior to the offensive counterparts across the league.

I also like options 2 and 3, there is definite validity to both those theories. Try watching guys who were considered pretty good QBs back in the late 70s--Joe Ferguson, Brian Sipe, Ron Jaworksi. Those guys playing today against the athletic fronts and speedy CBs would make Joey Harrington look like a great QB. The overall simplicty of the passing game from the pre-Walsh era makes it real hard to compare across generations, but QBs today are asked to process so much more info so much quicker. A legit moron like Dan Marino, still wondering how to spell D-O-G after getting spotted the D-O, wouldn't be near as successful today.

[deeney0]

Defenses are just better now? Do the scoring trends support that? (I'm not saying they don't, I'd just be surprised that it wouldn't be a more prevalent topic of conversation were it true).

No one has mentioned the fact that the big college programs are recruiting more high school QB's than ever before, with the explicit intention of converting them into safeties and receivers. It seems to me that this is where the QB pool is being diluted.

[Basketball Jesus]

Wow...talk about coincidental timing. I should probably ban myself for unintentional plagiarism.

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/7445 ... &page_no=2

That's pretty damn cool. I had no idea this article existed until FO posted it last night. At least I know I'm not crazy for thinking such things now.

[Icness]

No one has mentioned the fact that the big college programs are recruiting more high school QB's than ever before, with the explicit intention of converting them into safeties and receivers. It seems to me that this is where the QB pool is being diluted.

That takes this into a tangent, but it's an excellent point! Too many old-school college coaches are afraid of athletic QBs or unsure how to design a system to properly utilize them. And those that do tend to stick them into spread offenses, which make college QBs develop terrible habits and fundamental changes that do not translate to the NFL at all.

I'm not a big HS guy and I don't follow recruiting at all, but just looking around the areas where I do pay attention to HS Football (West MI and the Cleveland and Columbus areas) the passing-based offense is an anomaly. At least 1/4 of the teams around here run some variant of the single wing offense--the neighboring school district is in the MI state title game this weekend and their QB completed just 28 passes all season. In NE OH it's mostly power-I or like watching the 70s-era Steelers--2 capable backs, a QB who chucks the ball downfield to 2 WRs with no discernible accuracy, with lots of motion and straightforward power blocking. Any team that does get a kid who looks like a pretty good throwing QB tends to coddle and overprotect him so they don't lose their meal ticket. That breeds a big ego and often stymies development--look at Jimmy Claussen at Notre Dame, a kid genuinely despised and resented by most of his teammates.

I think some of the QB issues in college is related to the increasingly awesome athletes playing DE and the relative dearth of capable tackles to keep them off the QB--coaches have to come up with something to protect them, and that often means a QB isn't used to dealing with relentless pressure and still being able to look downfield. That's why I have a great deal of respect for QBs like Big Ben and Brees--in college they were asked to be exposed to a heavy rush and learned from it, and now they are both quite good at handling it in the NFL. On the flip side you have Alex Smith, who often threw the ball almost immediately after he took the shotgun snap in college, and look at him now.

Thanks for indulging my tangental rambling